Providence
Big East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#44
Expected Predictive Rating+18.6#8
Pace65.8#268
Improvement+0.6#154

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#63
First Shot+4.1#59
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#153
Layup/Dunks+3.9#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#323
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#216
Freethrows+3.8#4
Improvement-1.2#255

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#39
First Shot+4.3#54
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#58
Layups/Dunks-1.4#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#32
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#143
Freethrows+2.4#37
Improvement+1.8#76
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.7% 1.9% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 14.0% 15.1% 5.0%
Top 6 Seed 43.9% 46.3% 24.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.4% 95.3% 87.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.0% 95.0% 86.7%
Average Seed 6.8 6.6 7.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 77.0% 80.2% 51.7%
Conference Champion 3.3% 3.6% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four2.2% 1.9% 5.0%
First Round93.1% 94.2% 83.9%
Second Round49.0% 50.1% 39.7%
Sweet Sixteen16.1% 16.8% 10.7%
Elite Eight4.9% 5.1% 2.9%
Final Four1.4% 1.5% 0.5%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Georgetown (Home) - 88.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 33 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 26 - 5
Quad 25 - 211 - 7
Quad 35 - 116 - 8
Quad 45 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 219   Fairfield W 80-73 92%     1 - 0 +1.8 -1.1 +2.4
  Nov 11, 2021 284   Sacred Heart W 92-64 96%     2 - 0 +18.3 +13.3 +5.4
  Nov 15, 2021 25   @ Wisconsin W 63-58 32%     3 - 0 +20.3 +1.7 +18.9
  Nov 18, 2021 230   New Hampshire W 69-58 93%     4 - 0 +5.0 +9.0 -1.3
  Nov 22, 2021 59   Northwestern W 77-72 57%     5 - 0 +13.5 +12.2 +1.6
  Nov 23, 2021 67   Virginia L 40-58 59%     5 - 1 -10.0 -17.5 +2.9
  Nov 27, 2021 205   St. Peter's W 85-71 91%     6 - 1 +9.5 +22.8 -12.1
  Dec 01, 2021 14   Texas Tech W 72-68 40%     7 - 1 +16.8 +9.6 +7.3
  Dec 04, 2021 89   Rhode Island W 66-52 73%     8 - 1 +17.9 +3.6 +15.8
  Dec 07, 2021 79   Vermont W 68-58 71%     9 - 1 +14.7 +3.6 +12.0
  Dec 11, 2021 343   Central Connecticut St. W 68-53 98%     10 - 1 -0.4 -18.5 +16.7
  Dec 18, 2021 18   @ Connecticut W 57-53 28%     11 - 1 1 - 0 +20.3 -2.4 +23.1
  Dec 29, 2021 23   Seton Hall W 70-65 50%     12 - 1 2 - 0 +15.4 +1.7 +13.8
  Jan 01, 2022 94   @ DePaul W 70-53 57%     13 - 1 3 - 0 +25.5 +7.3 +19.8
  Jan 04, 2022 37   @ Marquette L 56-88 39%     13 - 2 3 - 1 -18.8 -4.1 -17.7
  Jan 08, 2022 92   St. John's W 83-73 74%     14 - 2 4 - 1 +13.7 +4.4 +8.5
  Jan 20, 2022 155   Georgetown W 78-66 89%    
  Jan 23, 2022 118   Butler W 66-57 82%    
  Jan 26, 2022 19   @ Xavier L 67-73 27%    
  Jan 29, 2022 37   Marquette W 71-69 60%    
  Feb 01, 2022 92   @ St. John's W 75-73 54%    
  Feb 06, 2022 155   @ Georgetown W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 12, 2022 94   DePaul W 74-67 75%    
  Feb 15, 2022 6   Villanova L 60-65 34%    
  Feb 20, 2022 118   @ Butler W 64-60 64%    
  Feb 23, 2022 19   Xavier L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 26, 2022 45   Creighton W 69-66 62%    
  Mar 01, 2022 6   @ Villanova L 58-68 16%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 11 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.0 0.1 3.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.9 5.9 3.4 0.4 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.5 9.2 4.5 0.5 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.7 9.6 6.0 0.6 0.0 19.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 8.0 7.0 0.7 0.0 17.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 6.1 6.3 1.1 0.0 14.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.5 1.0 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.3 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 6.6 12.8 18.3 21.4 18.9 11.6 5.4 1.4 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 71.1% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1
14-6 28.7% 1.5    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0
13-7 5.1% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 27.1% 72.9% 2.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.4% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 2.7 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.4% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 3.6 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.6% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 4.7 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 3.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 18.9% 99.9% 6.3% 93.6% 5.8 0.0 0.5 1.9 5.1 6.7 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 21.4% 99.2% 5.2% 94.0% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 5.6 6.6 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.2%
10-10 18.3% 97.8% 3.3% 94.4% 7.8 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.5 5.4 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.4 97.7%
9-11 12.8% 91.9% 2.0% 89.9% 8.9 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.7 4.0 2.7 0.9 0.1 1.0 91.7%
8-12 6.6% 75.9% 1.1% 74.8% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.5 0.3 1.6 75.6%
7-13 2.8% 40.6% 0.6% 40.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.7 40.3%
6-14 0.7% 9.4% 9.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 9.4%
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 94.4% 5.4% 89.0% 6.8 0.3 1.4 4.2 8.0 12.8 17.1 16.1 13.5 10.9 6.0 3.2 0.7 0.0 5.6 94.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.9 51.9 29.6 18.5