Xavier
Big East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#19
Expected Predictive Rating+16.5#14
Pace72.3#85
Improvement+0.9#131

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#25
First Shot+7.4#17
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#198
Layup/Dunks+2.5#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#187
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#111
Freethrows+3.2#11
Improvement+2.1#66

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#29
First Shot+6.6#18
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#167
Layups/Dunks-0.6#208
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#244
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#31
Freethrows+3.6#3
Improvement-1.1#246
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
#1 Seed 3.1% 5.1% 1.1%
Top 2 Seed 10.7% 16.5% 4.9%
Top 4 Seed 41.3% 53.3% 29.3%
Top 6 Seed 73.5% 83.9% 63.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.1% 99.5% 96.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.7% 99.3% 96.1%
Average Seed 5.1 4.5 5.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 97.8% 89.5%
Conference Champion 10.6% 15.9% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.3% 1.4%
First Round97.6% 99.3% 96.0%
Second Round70.5% 76.5% 64.5%
Sweet Sixteen35.4% 41.1% 29.8%
Elite Eight14.6% 17.6% 11.6%
Final Four5.8% 7.1% 4.4%
Championship Game2.2% 2.7% 1.6%
National Champion0.7% 0.9% 0.5%

Next Game: Marquette (Away) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 27 - 7
Quad 27 - 114 - 8
Quad 35 - 018 - 8
Quad 45 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 207   Niagara W 63-60 95%     1 - 0 -1.6 -10.2 +8.6
  Nov 12, 2021 164   Kent St. W 73-59 93%     2 - 0 +11.5 +4.0 +8.1
  Nov 18, 2021 22   Ohio St. W 71-65 62%     3 - 0 +16.6 +2.8 +13.9
  Nov 21, 2021 231   Norfolk St. W 88-48 96%     4 - 0 +33.9 +6.9 +23.4
  Nov 24, 2021 36   Iowa St. L 70-82 60%     4 - 1 -0.7 +5.5 -6.2
  Nov 26, 2021 32   Virginia Tech W 59-58 58%     5 - 1 +12.6 -0.1 +12.8
  Dec 01, 2021 333   Central Michigan W 78-45 99%     6 - 1 +19.1 -6.0 +24.6
  Dec 05, 2021 46   @ Oklahoma St. W 77-71 55%     7 - 1 +18.5 +8.8 +9.3
  Dec 08, 2021 242   Ball St. W 96-50 96%     8 - 1 +39.0 +5.0 +27.6
  Dec 11, 2021 74   Cincinnati W 83-63 80%     9 - 1 +24.9 +19.3 +6.8
  Dec 15, 2021 145   Morehead St. W 86-63 91%     10 - 1 +21.6 +11.6 +9.8
  Dec 18, 2021 37   Marquette W 80-71 70%     11 - 1 1 - 0 +17.2 +6.2 +10.4
  Dec 21, 2021 6   @ Villanova L 58-71 26%     11 - 2 1 - 1 +7.4 -1.7 +8.3
  Jan 07, 2022 118   @ Butler W 87-72 77%     12 - 2 2 - 1 +21.0 +28.2 -5.7
  Jan 12, 2022 6   Villanova L 60-64 44%     12 - 3 2 - 2 +11.4 +2.5 +8.4
  Jan 15, 2022 45   Creighton W 80-73 72%     13 - 3 3 - 2 +14.7 +6.0 +8.2
  Jan 19, 2022 94   @ DePaul W 68-67 69%     14 - 3 4 - 2 +9.5 +1.8 +7.7
  Jan 23, 2022 37   @ Marquette W 75-74 50%    
  Jan 26, 2022 44   Providence W 73-67 73%    
  Jan 29, 2022 45   @ Creighton W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 02, 2022 118   Butler W 72-59 89%    
  Feb 05, 2022 94   DePaul W 81-71 84%    
  Feb 09, 2022 23   @ Seton Hall L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 11, 2022 18   Connecticut W 72-70 60%    
  Feb 16, 2022 92   St. John's W 84-74 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 18   @ Connecticut L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 23, 2022 44   @ Providence W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 26, 2022 23   Seton Hall W 77-74 63%    
  Mar 02, 2022 92   @ St. John's W 82-77 66%    
  Mar 05, 2022 155   Georgetown W 85-69 93%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 12 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 2.9 3.8 2.5 0.7 10.6 1st
2nd 0.3 4.5 12.2 12.4 5.8 1.3 0.1 36.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.0 9.7 6.3 1.0 0.0 20.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 6.2 4.9 0.6 12.8 4th
5th 0.4 3.5 4.2 0.6 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.4 0.9 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.9 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.2 8.9 14.6 19.9 19.8 16.3 9.6 3.8 0.8 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 90.0% 0.7    0.5 0.2
16-4 65.4% 2.5    1.4 1.0
15-5 39.7% 3.8    1.7 2.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 17.6% 2.9    0.7 1.6 0.5 0.0
13-7 4.0% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.6% 10.6 4.4 5.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.8% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 100.0%
16-4 3.8% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 2.0 1.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.6% 100.0% 24.6% 75.4% 2.7 1.1 3.2 3.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 16.3% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 3.6 0.4 2.0 5.2 5.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-7 19.8% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 4.6 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.4 6.3 3.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
12-8 19.9% 99.9% 13.4% 86.5% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 6.0 6.0 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 14.6% 99.6% 10.4% 89.2% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.0 4.6 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5%
10-10 8.9% 98.2% 7.2% 91.1% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.1%
9-11 4.2% 85.5% 4.2% 81.3% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 84.8%
8-12 1.7% 56.1% 3.1% 53.0% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 54.7%
7-13 0.4% 23.9% 1.7% 22.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 22.6%
6-14 0.1% 7.3% 7.3% 12.0 0.0 0.1 7.3%
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.1% 15.5% 82.5% 5.1 3.1 7.6 12.8 17.8 17.4 14.8 10.7 6.4 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.9 97.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 67.0 33.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.4 58.5 38.7 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 40.4 50.5 9.1