West Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Gonzaga 100.0%   1   14 - 2 3 - 0 23 - 3 11 - 1 +22.6      +14.9 1 +7.7 16 81.3 3 +18.6 7 +22.1 1
29 BYU 90.0%   8   13 - 4 3 - 1 21 - 7 11 - 4 +12.2      +5.4 45 +6.8 24 69.7 148 +13.9 30 +20.7 2
38 St. Mary's 60.5%   11   12 - 4 1 - 1 20 - 8 9 - 5 +10.7      +1.6 130 +9.1 7 62.4 325 +11.9 43 +6.6 5
39 San Francisco 60.0%   11   14 - 3 2 - 1 22 - 7 10 - 4 +10.6      +4.5 59 +6.1 33 70.6 125 +11.9 44 +6.0 6
95 Santa Clara 3.6%   11 - 6 1 - 1 19 - 12 9 - 7 +5.9      +4.5 62 +1.4 129 75.3 45 +5.3 98 +8.7 4
131 Loyola Marymount 0.4%   7 - 7 1 - 2 12 - 14 6 - 9 +2.3      +1.2 143 +1.2 138 67.1 229 +2.3 135 -3.0 8
172 San Diego 0.1%   8 - 7 3 - 1 12 - 14 7 - 8 -0.4      -2.7 254 +2.3 101 66.3 256 +0.4 163 +8.9 3
245 Portland 0.0%   9 - 8 1 - 2 12 - 17 4 - 11 -4.6      -2.3 238 -2.3 240 71.6 93 -3.0 219 -1.8 7
253 Pepperdine 0.0%   5 - 13 0 - 4 7 - 23 2 - 14 -4.9      -3.8 277 -1.1 205 75.7 42 -7.5 287 -17.4 10
260 Pacific 0.0%   3 - 11 0 - 2 6 - 20 3 - 11 -5.2      -4.4 290 -0.9 198 66.0 265 -11.6 327 -9.0 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.7 52.6 32.6 11.1 3.1 0.6 0.0
BYU 1.8 53.5 23.5 13.8 6.3 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
St. Mary's 4.1 5.9 10.4 18.2 24.7 22.1 12.0 5.4 1.2 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 3.0 16.7 20.9 27.1 20.3 10.5 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
Santa Clara 4.1 9.1 11.4 17.9 20.7 19.2 12.7 6.8 2.0 0.3 0.1
Loyola Marymount 6.2 0.2 1.1 3.1 8.0 15.5 25.3 29.8 12.3 3.9 0.8
San Diego 5.4 1.1 3.0 7.1 13.5 22.1 29.2 17.5 5.3 1.1 0.1
Portland 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 8.0 18.5 37.4 24.3 8.1
Pepperdine 9.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.1 15.2 32.6 46.9
Pacific 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 5.3 11.9 26.0 32.0 22.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 11 - 5 0.0 0.5 3.3 15.4 38.1 42.8
BYU 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 8.2 17.9 27.1 26.2 14.1 3.1
St. Mary's 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.4 13.9 21.9 24.7 19.0 8.9 2.0 0.2
San Francisco 10 - 6 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.7 11.8 21.9 28.0 21.3 9.5 1.5
Santa Clara 9 - 7 0.1 0.2 1.0 3.2 7.7 13.7 18.7 21.3 16.8 11.0 4.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
Loyola Marymount 6 - 10 0.1 0.9 3.4 9.3 18.1 23.6 21.5 13.9 6.6 2.1 0.4 0.1
San Diego 7 - 9 0.5 3.4 10.4 19.6 23.8 20.7 12.9 6.1 2.1 0.5 0.0
Portland 4 - 12 2.3 10.6 20.8 25.7 21.7 12.1 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.0
Pepperdine 2 - 14 7.2 20.4 28.8 23.5 12.9 5.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Pacific 3 - 13 2.5 9.8 18.6 23.7 20.5 13.8 7.0 3.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 52.6% 26.0 20.8 5.1 0.7 0.1
BYU 53.5% 30.2 18.0 4.6 0.7 0.1
St. Mary's 5.9% 1.8 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.1
San Francisco 16.7% 6.2 6.8 3.1 0.6 0.0
Santa Clara 9.1% 3.3 3.7 1.7 0.4 0.0
Loyola Marymount 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Diego 1.1% 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Portland
Pepperdine
Pacific


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 75.4% 24.6% 1   47.3 30.6 12.8 6.1 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
BYU 90.0% 10.4% 79.6% 8   0.5 1.1 2.6 5.7 8.8 11.0 13.6 14.1 14.3 10.4 6.5 1.4 0.0 10.0 88.8%
St. Mary's 60.5% 5.6% 54.8% 11   0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.9 2.8 4.6 6.6 10.1 12.3 14.0 6.3 0.2 39.5 58.1%
San Francisco 60.0% 6.6% 53.4% 11   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.8 5.7 8.8 12.0 16.8 7.6 0.3 40.0 57.1%
Santa Clara 3.6% 1.5% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.4 2.1%
Loyola Marymount 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%
San Diego 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.0% 83.0% 63.2% 44.7% 30.9% 20.9%
BYU 90.0% 4.0% 87.8% 50.8% 18.3% 6.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
St. Mary's 60.5% 13.3% 54.2% 26.8% 8.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
San Francisco 60.0% 16.3% 52.0% 25.0% 7.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Santa Clara 3.6% 1.2% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.1 0.8 16.6 50.5 31.3 0.7
1st Round 100.0% 3.0 1.5 23.1 52.3 22.7 0.4
2nd Round 99.6% 2.0 0.4 25.3 49.1 22.6 2.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 89.4% 1.2 10.6 63.7 23.4 2.3 0.1
Elite Eight 68.7% 0.8 31.3 61.6 6.9 0.2
Final Four 47.6% 0.5 52.4 46.2 1.4
Final Game 32.0% 0.3 68.0 31.8 0.2
Champion 21.3% 0.2 78.7 21.3