San Francisco
West Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#39
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#44
Pace70.6#125
Improvement-0.8#207

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#59
First Shot+4.3#54
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#173
Layup/Dunks+3.6#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#49
Freethrows-1.5#289
Improvement+0.9#120

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#33
First Shot+4.4#52
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#49
Layups/Dunks-2.2#262
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#277
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#3
Freethrows-0.4#224
Improvement-1.7#268
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.4% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 5.1% 5.6% 1.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.0% 62.0% 45.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.1% 59.2% 42.5%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 10.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.9% 95.8% 80.5%
Conference Champion 16.7% 18.5% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four16.3% 16.1% 17.5%
First Round52.0% 54.2% 36.3%
Second Round25.0% 26.3% 15.8%
Sweet Sixteen7.8% 8.2% 5.0%
Elite Eight2.8% 3.0% 1.7%
Final Four0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Portland (Away) - 87.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 5
Quad 24 - 26 - 7
Quad 38 - 114 - 8
Quad 49 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 235   LIU Brooklyn W 98-64 94%     1 - 0 +27.5 +21.1 +5.9
  Nov 11, 2021 303   Prairie View W 92-76 97%     2 - 0 +5.2 +4.7 -0.8
  Nov 13, 2021 53   Davidson W 65-60 56%     3 - 0 +14.2 -7.0 +21.2
  Nov 15, 2021 237   Samford W 77-55 94%     4 - 0 +15.4 -5.4 +19.7
  Nov 18, 2021 116   Nevada W 73-70 82%     5 - 0 +4.1 +2.5 +1.7
  Nov 22, 2021 326   Morgan St. W 83-67 98%     6 - 0 +2.6 -2.3 +3.6
  Nov 25, 2021 114   Towson W 71-61 74%     7 - 0 +14.1 +7.6 +7.8
  Nov 26, 2021 50   UAB W 63-61 55%     8 - 0 +11.5 -3.9 +15.5
  Dec 04, 2021 108   UNLV W 83-62 80%     9 - 0 +22.8 +11.5 +11.3
  Dec 08, 2021 78   Fresno St. W 71-63 72%     10 - 0 +12.7 +8.8 +4.6
  Dec 18, 2021 96   Grand Canyon L 48-49 68%     10 - 1 +4.8 -16.2 +20.9
  Dec 19, 2021 119   @ Arizona St. W 66-65 68%     11 - 1 +6.9 -3.0 +9.8
  Dec 22, 2021 133   Southern Illinois W 64-52 85%     12 - 1 +11.6 -4.6 +17.0
  Jan 06, 2022 28   Loyola Chicago L 74-79 43%     12 - 2 +7.3 +12.4 -5.4
  Jan 08, 2022 172   San Diego W 88-73 89%     13 - 2 1 - 0 +12.1 +15.3 -3.4
  Jan 13, 2022 131   Loyola Marymount W 97-73 84%     14 - 2 2 - 0 +23.8 +12.6 +8.4
  Jan 15, 2022 29   BYU L 69-71 54%     14 - 3 2 - 1 +7.7 -1.0 +8.8
  Jan 20, 2022 245   @ Portland W 78-65 88%    
  Jan 20, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 73-87 8%    
  Jan 22, 2022 253   @ Pepperdine W 79-66 88%    
  Jan 27, 2022 38   St. Mary's W 64-62 61%    
  Jan 29, 2022 95   Santa Clara W 78-71 76%    
  Feb 03, 2022 29   @ BYU L 68-72 33%    
  Feb 05, 2022 245   Portland W 80-62 95%    
  Feb 10, 2022 253   Pepperdine W 81-63 96%    
  Feb 12, 2022 95   @ Santa Clara W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 15, 2022 260   @ Pacific W 73-60 88%    
  Feb 24, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 75-84 20%    
  Feb 26, 2022 172   @ San Diego W 71-62 77%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 6.3 8.7 1.5 16.7 1st
2nd 0.4 7.6 12.2 0.8 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 7.2 16.6 2.9 27.1 3rd
4th 0.3 4.5 12.1 3.5 0.0 20.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 5.8 2.2 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.9 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.7 11.8 21.9 28.0 21.3 9.5 1.5 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 1.5    1.4 0.1
12-4 91.1% 8.7    4.3 4.0 0.4
11-5 29.5% 6.3    0.5 2.8 2.6 0.5
10-6 1.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 16.7% 16.7 6.2 6.8 3.1 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 1.5% 99.2% 13.2% 86.0% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
12-4 9.5% 96.1% 14.7% 81.4% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 2.0 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 95.4%
11-5 21.3% 84.8% 8.6% 76.2% 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.6 4.4 3.4 0.6 0.0 3.2 83.4%
10-6 28.0% 65.4% 6.6% 58.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.9 7.3 2.7 0.1 9.7 63.0%
9-7 21.9% 42.5% 4.0% 38.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.4 2.5 0.1 12.6 40.1%
8-8 11.8% 26.3% 3.3% 23.0% 11.3 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.1 8.7 23.8%
7-9 4.7% 12.1% 1.6% 10.5% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 4.1 10.6%
6-10 1.2% 4.1% 1.5% 2.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.6%
5-11 0.2% 1.8% 1.8% 13.0 0.0 0.2
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 60.0% 6.6% 53.4% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.8 5.7 8.8 12.0 16.8 7.6 0.3 40.0 57.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.7 10.7 17.9 60.7 10.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.6 9.5 19.0 23.8 14.3 19.0 7.1 7.1