San Diego
West Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#172
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#163
Pace66.3#256
Improvement-0.9#215

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#254
First Shot-1.9#240
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#248
Layup/Dunks-1.7#240
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#301
Freethrows-0.3#204
Improvement-0.6#217

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#101
First Shot+2.9#79
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#225
Layups/Dunks+0.2#176
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#353
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#5
Freethrows+1.8#64
Improvement-0.3#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 13.5
.500 or above 34.7% 58.9% 29.5%
.500 or above in Conference 42.4% 67.9% 36.8%
Conference Champion 1.1% 4.5% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.0% 0.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Home) - 17.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 52 - 9
Quad 33 - 35 - 12
Quad 48 - 313 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 116   @ Nevada W 75-68 27%     1 - 0 +13.1 +6.8 +6.5
  Nov 15, 2021 107   @ California L 70-75 24%     1 - 1 +1.9 +5.3 -3.6
  Nov 17, 2021 143   UC Riverside W 74-62 54%     2 - 1 +10.7 +2.6 +7.8
  Nov 19, 2021 170   Cal St. Fullerton L 55-57 59%     2 - 2 -4.8 -15.9 +10.9
  Nov 25, 2021 149   South Alabama L 67-68 45%     2 - 3 -0.2 -5.4 +5.3
  Nov 26, 2021 257   Illinois-Chicago W 64-52 67%     3 - 3 +7.0 -9.1 +16.6
  Nov 28, 2021 296   Cal St. Northridge L 52-56 83%     3 - 4 -14.4 -16.3 +1.3
  Dec 01, 2021 78   @ Fresno St. L 43-63 17%     3 - 5 -10.3 -14.3 -0.1
  Dec 05, 2021 300   Cal Poly W 52-51 83%     4 - 5 -9.6 -14.0 +4.6
  Dec 18, 2021 319   Northern Arizona W 69-59 81%     5 - 5 +0.2 -6.9 +7.4
  Dec 22, 2021 108   @ UNLV L 57-80 24%     5 - 6 -16.2 -9.8 -7.2
  Jan 08, 2022 39   @ San Francisco L 73-88 11%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -1.9 +6.8 -8.5
  Jan 10, 2022 253   @ Pepperdine W 72-62 58%     6 - 7 1 - 1 +7.6 -7.0 +13.8
  Jan 13, 2022 245   Portland W 68-63 OT 74%     7 - 7 2 - 1 -2.1 -10.7 +8.5
  Jan 15, 2022 131   Loyola Marymount W 70-65 49%     8 - 7 3 - 1 +4.8 +4.9 +0.5
  Jan 20, 2022 29   BYU L 61-71 18%    
  Jan 22, 2022 260   @ Pacific W 64-62 57%    
  Jan 24, 2022 95   @ Santa Clara L 66-75 19%    
  Jan 27, 2022 253   Pepperdine W 71-64 76%    
  Jan 29, 2022 131   @ Loyola Marymount L 63-68 29%    
  Feb 05, 2022 95   Santa Clara L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 10, 2022 38   @ St. Mary's L 53-67 10%    
  Feb 12, 2022 260   Pacific W 67-60 77%    
  Feb 17, 2022 245   @ Portland W 69-67 54%    
  Feb 24, 2022 38   St. Mary's L 55-64 23%    
  Feb 26, 2022 39   San Francisco L 62-71 23%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 7 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 1.2 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.0 3.4 0.3 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 4.8 7.2 1.1 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.7 7.1 11.8 2.5 0.0 22.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 10.0 14.0 3.7 0.0 29.2 6th
7th 0.6 6.2 8.4 2.3 0.0 17.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.5 3.4 10.4 19.6 23.8 20.7 12.9 6.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-4 91.0% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.0
11-5 26.0% 0.5    0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1
10-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 13.0 0.0 0.5
11-5 2.1% 1.3% 1.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 2.0
10-6 6.1% 0.5% 0.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
9-7 12.9% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.9
8-8 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 20.7
7-9 23.8% 0.1% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 23.8
6-10 19.6% 19.6
5-11 10.4% 10.4
4-12 3.4% 3.4
3-13 0.5% 0.5
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%