Gonzaga
West Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+22.6#1
Expected Predictive Rating+18.6#7
Pace81.3#3
Improvement+2.9#59

Offense
Total Offense+14.9#1
First Shot+14.3#1
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#129
Layup/Dunks+12.3#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#90
Freethrows+1.5#75
Improvement+2.4#54

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#16
First Shot+7.1#14
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#129
Layups/Dunks+4.1#37
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#185
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#199
Freethrows+3.3#6
Improvement+0.5#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 11.4% 11.8% 6.5%
#1 Seed 47.3% 48.6% 32.0%
Top 2 Seed 77.9% 79.4% 60.3%
Top 4 Seed 96.9% 97.4% 90.9%
Top 6 Seed 99.6% 99.7% 98.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.9 1.8 2.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 52.6% 53.2% 45.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.0% 98.1% 96.7%
Sweet Sixteen83.0% 83.2% 80.2%
Elite Eight63.2% 63.8% 56.6%
Final Four44.7% 45.4% 36.5%
Championship Game30.9% 31.4% 24.9%
National Champion20.9% 21.3% 16.1%

Next Game: San Francisco (Home) - 92.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 23 - 2
Quad 1b4 - 17 - 3
Quad 24 - 011 - 3
Quad 33 - 014 - 3
Quad 412 - 026 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 297   Dixie St. W 97-63 99%     1 - 0 +23.6 +6.3 +13.0
  Nov 13, 2021 17   Texas W 86-74 85%     2 - 0 +23.7 +25.8 -1.1
  Nov 15, 2021 277   Alcorn St. W 84-57 99%     3 - 0 +17.9 +4.9 +12.4
  Nov 19, 2021 192   Bellarmine W 92-50 98%     4 - 0 +38.1 +16.6 +22.5
  Nov 22, 2021 333   Central Michigan W 107-54 99.5%    5 - 0 +41.6 +14.7 +21.5
  Nov 23, 2021 12   UCLA W 83-63 72%     6 - 0 +36.7 +17.0 +19.4
  Nov 26, 2021 10   Duke L 81-84 70%     6 - 1 +14.0 +5.8 +8.6
  Nov 29, 2021 171   Tarleton St. W 64-55 98%     7 - 1 +6.1 -3.1 +9.9
  Dec 04, 2021 16   Alabama L 82-91 78%     7 - 2 +5.5 +4.1 +2.5
  Dec 09, 2021 289   Merrimack W 80-55 99%     8 - 2 +15.0 +7.0 +8.5
  Dec 18, 2021 14   Texas Tech W 69-55 76%     9 - 2 +29.4 +13.0 +17.6
  Dec 20, 2021 319   Northern Arizona W 95-49 99.6%    10 - 2 +33.7 +13.9 +19.1
  Dec 28, 2021 298   North Alabama W 93-63 99%     11 - 2 +19.5 +10.3 +6.4
  Jan 08, 2022 253   Pepperdine W 117-83 99%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +26.6 +16.0 +3.1
  Jan 13, 2022 29   BYU W 110-84 88%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +35.7 +31.9 +1.2
  Jan 15, 2022 95   @ Santa Clara W 115-83 90%     14 - 2 3 - 0 +40.4 +18.8 +14.3
  Jan 20, 2022 39   San Francisco W 87-73 92%    
  Jan 27, 2022 131   Loyola Marymount W 90-67 99%    
  Jan 29, 2022 245   Portland W 96-66 99.7%   
  Feb 03, 2022 253   @ Pepperdine W 95-70 99%    
  Feb 05, 2022 29   @ BYU W 84-76 75%    
  Feb 10, 2022 260   Pacific W 91-61 99.8%   
  Feb 12, 2022 38   St. Mary's W 79-65 92%    
  Feb 19, 2022 95   Santa Clara W 95-76 96%    
  Feb 24, 2022 39   @ San Francisco W 84-75 80%    
  Feb 26, 2022 38   @ St. Mary's W 76-67 79%    
Projected Record 23 - 3 11 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.5 14.3 37.8 52.6 1st
2nd 0.1 6.1 21.5 4.9 32.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 7.7 2.3 0.0 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 1.1 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.5 3.3 15.4 38.1 42.8 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 88.4% 37.8    23.3 13.8 0.7
11-5 37.4% 14.3    2.7 6.9 4.1 0.5
10-6 3.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 52.6% 52.6 26.0 20.8 5.1 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 42.8% 100.0% 80.4% 19.6% 1.3 30.1 11.4 1.2 0.1 100.0%
11-5 38.1% 100.0% 75.3% 24.7% 1.8 15.8 15.2 5.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-6 15.4% 100.0% 66.0% 34.0% 3.0 1.4 3.8 5.4 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.1 100.0%
9-7 3.3% 100.0% 59.7% 40.3% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-8 0.5% 98.8% 43.8% 55.0% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.8%
7-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 100.0% 75.4% 24.6% 1.9 47.3 30.6 12.8 6.1 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 32.3% 100.0% 1.3 74.6 24.0 1.4 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.1% 100.0% 1.5 60.7 33.2 5.9 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.0% 100.0% 1.5 56.0 36.6 6.7 0.7