Portland
West Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#245
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#219
Pace71.6#93
Improvement+1.4#112

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#238
First Shot-0.5#194
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#310
Layup/Dunks-7.0#351
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#85
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#99
Freethrows+2.6#21
Improvement+0.2#164

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#240
First Shot-2.1#254
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#179
Layups/Dunks+0.6#160
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#328
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#226
Freethrows+1.0#104
Improvement+1.2#109
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 7.0% 21.5% 5.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 7.2% 0.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.4% 7.4% 20.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Home) - 12.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 41 - 9
Quad 32 - 52 - 14
Quad 410 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 119   @ Arizona St. L 60-76 16%     0 - 1 -10.1 -11.7 +2.9
  Nov 13, 2021 277   Alcorn St. W 62-58 67%     1 - 1 -5.1 -15.3 +10.2
  Nov 18, 2021 356   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-74 93%     2 - 1 -9.6 -2.9 -7.3
  Nov 20, 2021 326   Morgan St. W 74-63 80%     3 - 1 -2.4 -7.5 +4.7
  Nov 23, 2021 274   @ Portland St. W 69-54 47%     4 - 1 +11.1 -6.2 +16.7
  Nov 26, 2021 166   Montana St. L 66-69 33%     4 - 2 -3.1 +4.2 -7.8
  Nov 27, 2021 316   Southeast Missouri St. W 74-68 68%     5 - 2 -3.3 -9.8 +6.2
  Nov 28, 2021 353   @ Incarnate Word W 77-68 79%     6 - 2 -4.1 -5.0 +0.7
  Dec 03, 2021 197   VMI L 82-90 48%     6 - 3 -12.0 +2.7 -14.7
  Dec 13, 2021 300   Cal Poly W 78-77 72%     7 - 3 -9.6 +5.0 -14.5
  Dec 15, 2021 40   @ Oregon L 71-96 6%     7 - 4 -11.9 +2.0 -13.7
  Dec 17, 2021 287   San Jose St. L 78-90 69%     7 - 5 -21.7 -0.2 -21.6
  Dec 19, 2021 166   @ Montana St. L 59-61 25%     7 - 6 +0.5 -11.1 +11.6
  Dec 22, 2021 208   @ UC Davis W 65-60 32%     8 - 6 +5.4 -0.8 +6.8
  Jan 13, 2022 172   @ San Diego L 63-68 OT 26%     8 - 7 0 - 1 -2.9 -8.4 +5.7
  Jan 15, 2022 253   @ Pepperdine W 82-63 42%     9 - 7 1 - 1 +16.6 +4.0 +11.4
  Jan 17, 2022 131   @ Loyola Marymount L 58-70 19%     9 - 8 1 - 2 -7.1 -12.8 +5.7
  Jan 20, 2022 39   San Francisco L 65-78 12%    
  Jan 22, 2022 29   @ BYU L 62-81 3%    
  Jan 27, 2022 260   Pacific W 70-67 63%    
  Jan 29, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 66-96 0.3%   
  Feb 03, 2022 38   St. Mary's L 58-71 13%    
  Feb 05, 2022 39   @ San Francisco L 62-80 5%    
  Feb 12, 2022 131   Loyola Marymount L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 14, 2022 95   Santa Clara L 72-80 24%    
  Feb 17, 2022 172   San Diego L 67-69 46%    
  Feb 19, 2022 253   Pepperdine W 75-72 62%    
  Feb 24, 2022 260   @ Pacific L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 95   @ Santa Clara L 70-83 11%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 4 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 4th
5th 0.4 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.2 2.6 0.2 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 2.4 9.3 6.1 0.6 0.0 18.5 7th
8th 0.2 6.7 18.0 10.9 1.4 0.0 37.4 8th
9th 0.3 6.0 12.4 5.2 0.4 24.3 9th
10th 2.1 4.4 1.6 0.1 8.1 10th
Total 2.3 10.6 20.8 25.7 21.7 12.1 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0% 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.3
8-8 1.4% 1.4
7-9 5.0% 5.0
6-10 12.1% 12.1
5-11 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.7
4-12 25.7% 25.7
3-13 20.8% 20.8
2-14 10.6% 10.6
1-15 2.3% 2.3
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.0%