BYU
West Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.2#29
Expected Predictive Rating+13.9#30
Pace69.7#148
Improvement-2.3#275

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#45
First Shot+2.6#100
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#23
Layup/Dunks-1.0#211
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#59
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#168
Freethrows+1.2#91
Improvement-2.1#294

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#24
First Shot+5.4#35
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#67
Layups/Dunks+3.5#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#32
Freethrows-0.4#222
Improvement-0.2#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.6% 1.9% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 9.9% 11.5% 2.6%
Top 6 Seed 29.7% 33.6% 12.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.0% 91.6% 82.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.8% 90.6% 81.0%
Average Seed 7.5 7.3 8.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.7% 97.5%
Conference Champion 53.5% 59.0% 28.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.0% 3.2% 7.7%
First Round87.8% 90.0% 77.9%
Second Round50.8% 53.3% 39.6%
Sweet Sixteen18.3% 19.5% 13.1%
Elite Eight6.9% 7.3% 4.9%
Final Four2.3% 2.5% 1.4%
Championship Game0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 82.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 13 - 4
Quad 26 - 310 - 6
Quad 36 - 116 - 8
Quad 47 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 156   Cleveland St. W 69-59 90%     1 - 0 +7.9 +1.0 +7.9
  Nov 12, 2021 33   San Diego St. W 66-60 62%     2 - 0 +15.0 +5.1 +10.1
  Nov 16, 2021 40   Oregon W 81-49 56%     3 - 0 +42.6 +16.5 +28.1
  Nov 24, 2021 204   Texas Southern W 81-64 93%     4 - 0 +12.6 +5.0 +7.1
  Nov 27, 2021 111   @ Utah W 75-64 70%     5 - 0 +17.7 +10.2 +8.5
  Dec 01, 2021 128   @ Utah Valley L 65-72 OT 75%     5 - 1 -2.0 -13.6 +12.5
  Dec 04, 2021 77   @ Missouri St. W 74-68 59%     6 - 1 +15.8 +3.6 +12.1
  Dec 08, 2021 73   Utah St. W 82-71 75%     7 - 1 +16.0 +9.1 +6.6
  Dec 11, 2021 45   Creighton L 71-83 58%     7 - 2 -1.8 +3.5 -5.3
  Dec 18, 2021 147   @ Weber St. W 89-71 80%     8 - 2 +21.5 +10.8 +9.4
  Dec 22, 2021 191   South Florida W 54-39 89%     9 - 2 +13.7 -5.7 +21.9
  Dec 23, 2021 85   Vanderbilt L 67-69 70%     9 - 3 +4.7 -1.9 +6.7
  Dec 25, 2021 104   Liberty W 80-75 77%     10 - 3 +9.5 +11.6 -1.9
  Jan 06, 2022 260   Pacific W 73-51 96%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +14.3 +0.6 +14.4
  Jan 08, 2022 38   St. Mary's W 52-43 65%     12 - 3 2 - 0 +17.2 -8.1 +26.1
  Jan 13, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 84-110 12%     12 - 4 2 - 1 -0.9 +11.9 -10.2
  Jan 15, 2022 39   @ San Francisco W 71-69 46%     13 - 4 3 - 1 +15.1 +2.7 +12.3
  Jan 20, 2022 172   @ San Diego W 71-61 82%    
  Jan 22, 2022 245   Portland W 81-62 97%    
  Jan 27, 2022 95   @ Santa Clara W 77-73 63%    
  Jan 29, 2022 260   @ Pacific W 74-59 91%    
  Feb 03, 2022 39   San Francisco W 72-68 67%    
  Feb 05, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 76-84 25%    
  Feb 10, 2022 131   @ Loyola Marymount W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 12, 2022 253   @ Pepperdine W 79-64 90%    
  Feb 19, 2022 38   @ St. Mary's L 62-63 45%    
  Feb 24, 2022 131   Loyola Marymount W 75-63 88%    
  Feb 26, 2022 253   Pepperdine W 82-62 97%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 11 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.4 10.3 25.6 14.1 3.1 53.5 1st
2nd 0.3 7.4 15.1 0.6 23.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.1 8.8 1.7 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.2 1.2 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 8.2 17.9 27.1 26.2 14.1 3.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 3.1    3.1
13-3 100.0% 14.1    13.9 0.2
12-4 97.6% 25.6    12.2 12.7 0.7
11-5 37.8% 10.3    1.0 5.1 3.7 0.5
10-6 2.5% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 53.5% 53.5 30.2 18.0 4.6 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 3.1% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 3.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-3 14.1% 99.8% 16.9% 82.8% 4.9 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.3 3.9 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.7%
12-4 26.2% 98.4% 12.3% 86.2% 6.7 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.7 5.9 7.0 4.5 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.4 98.2%
11-5 27.1% 93.4% 9.9% 83.5% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.6 6.8 6.7 3.4 1.1 0.1 1.8 92.7%
10-6 17.9% 83.2% 5.7% 77.5% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.3 4.5 2.7 0.4 0.0 3.0 82.2%
9-7 8.2% 65.2% 3.9% 61.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.0 0.6 0.0 2.8 63.8%
8-8 2.6% 47.3% 4.2% 43.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 1.4 44.9%
7-9 0.6% 18.6% 4.0% 14.6% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 15.2%
6-10 0.1% 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 90.0% 10.4% 79.6% 7.5 0.5 1.1 2.6 5.7 8.8 11.0 13.6 14.1 14.3 10.4 6.5 1.4 0.0 10.0 88.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.9 35.4 45.4 17.9 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3% 100.0% 3.2 9.8 15.4 35.4 28.3 9.5 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 100.0% 4.0 3.4 10.7 15.4 37.8 24.2 6.7 1.8