Pac-12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
35 Oregon 63.3%   11   5 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 6 +11.9      +6.7 30 +5.2 46 66.5 263 +4.6 118 0.0 1
36 Arizona St. 76.5%   9   7 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 9 12 - 6 +11.6      +6.2 35 +5.4 43 76.4 49 +18.9 19 0.0 1
40 Arizona 66.5%   10   7 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +10.8      +5.0 49 +5.7 36 70.5 160 +12.9 41 0.0 1
44 UCLA 60.3%   10   7 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +10.2      +5.2 45 +5.0 49 76.1 55 +13.0 40 0.0 1
52 Washington 50.7%   11   7 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +9.5      +4.1 75 +5.4 42 68.7 213 +11.8 52 0.0 1
60 Colorado 36.5%   7 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 10 10 - 8 +8.5      +3.9 77 +4.6 60 76.0 60 +11.3 53 0.0 1
64 Oregon St. 26.1%   6 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +7.5      +4.0 76 +3.5 76 64.4 312 +9.1 77 0.0 1
93 USC 7.2%   5 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 15 8 - 10 +5.6      +3.3 90 +2.2 105 75.2 72 +2.9 141 0.0 1
95 Stanford 10.0%   4 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 10 +5.4      +0.1 169 +5.3 44 73.6 100 +6.5 103 0.0 1
133 Utah 2.1%   4 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 12 +2.6      +3.5 86 -0.9 197 64.0 315 +1.0 160 0.0 1
176 Washington St. 0.2%   5 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 18 5 - 13 -1.2      +2.1 115 -3.3 269 75.8 62 -4.4 225 0.0 1
178 California 0.2%   3 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 20 4 - 14 -1.2      +1.7 126 -2.9 263 65.6 290 +0.1 172 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Oregon 3.5 26.0 17.7 14.0 11.7 9.7 7.7 5.5 3.8 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1
Arizona St. 3.4 26.4 18.5 14.6 11.5 9.4 7.0 5.2 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
Arizona 3.9 19.4 16.9 14.9 12.9 10.9 8.7 6.6 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.1
UCLA 4.0 19.4 16.6 14.4 12.4 10.6 8.6 6.8 5.0 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.2
Washington 4.2 15.6 15.4 14.9 13.4 11.6 9.5 7.5 5.6 3.5 2.0 0.8 0.3
Colorado 5.2 9.9 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.8 11.6 10.6 8.9 6.7 4.4 2.2 0.8
Oregon St. 6.1 5.5 6.9 8.2 9.4 10.9 11.8 12.4 12.1 10.4 7.2 3.8 1.4
USC 6.8 3.2 4.8 6.3 7.8 9.5 11.3 12.5 13.0 12.6 10.0 6.2 2.7
Stanford 6.9 2.9 4.5 6.0 7.3 9.1 11.2 12.8 13.9 13.1 10.0 6.2 3.0
Utah 8.8 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.9 4.2 6.1 8.5 11.9 15.6 19.3 16.9 10.8
Washington St. 10.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.1 7.0 11.1 18.0 25.2 29.2
California 10.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.5 6.0 10.2 17.3 26.7 31.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Oregon 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.0 5.2 8.2 11.1 13.6 14.8 14.3 12.1 8.3 4.7 1.8 0.4
Arizona St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 5.0 7.7 10.8 13.5 15.1 14.4 12.3 8.8 4.9 2.0 0.4
Arizona 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.7 6.4 9.5 12.7 14.8 15.1 13.5 10.3 6.3 3.3 1.1 0.2
UCLA 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.2 6.8 9.6 12.5 14.2 14.3 13.0 10.2 6.5 3.3 1.2 0.2
Washington 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.5 7.5 10.7 13.4 15.2 14.5 12.4 8.7 5.3 2.4 0.8 0.1
Colorado 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.4 8.1 11.0 13.0 14.0 13.2 11.3 8.5 5.4 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.0
Oregon St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.4 8.5 11.3 13.3 13.9 13.3 11.1 8.1 5.3 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
USC 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.6 7.4 10.4 13.0 14.1 13.5 11.7 8.8 6.1 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Stanford 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.4 4.7 7.8 11.0 13.4 14.3 13.7 11.5 8.5 5.7 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Utah 6 - 12 0.4 1.9 4.7 8.4 12.0 14.4 14.8 13.6 11.0 8.0 5.0 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington St. 5 - 13 1.8 6.2 11.8 15.8 17.0 15.7 12.3 8.5 5.4 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
California 4 - 14 2.1 7.1 13.0 16.9 17.5 15.3 11.3 7.7 4.7 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Oregon 26.0% 16.7 6.8 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 26.4% 16.8 6.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona 19.4% 11.6 5.6 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UCLA 19.4% 11.5 5.6 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington 15.6% 8.9 4.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Colorado 9.9% 5.4 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 5.5% 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
USC 3.2% 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stanford 2.9% 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
California 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Oregon 63.3% 20.1% 43.1% 11   0.3 0.8 2.2 3.9 5.0 6.9 7.8 8.3 8.6 8.1 7.3 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 36.7 54.0%
Arizona St. 76.5% 19.2% 57.3% 9   0.8 3.1 5.2 7.5 8.4 8.9 9.8 9.5 9.2 7.1 4.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 23.5 70.9%
Arizona 66.5% 15.2% 51.3% 10   0.2 1.1 2.4 4.3 5.9 7.3 8.6 9.4 10.2 8.2 6.0 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 33.5 60.5%
UCLA 60.3% 13.2% 47.1% 10   0.2 1.0 2.4 4.1 5.3 6.3 7.5 8.0 9.0 7.6 5.9 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 39.7 54.2%
Washington 50.7% 11.0% 39.8% 11   0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.1 4.1 5.6 6.7 8.2 8.4 7.3 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 49.3 44.7%
Colorado 36.5% 8.4% 28.1% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.2 6.1 6.5 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 63.5 30.7%
Oregon St. 26.1% 5.8% 20.3% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.2 2.9 3.7 4.8 5.4 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 73.9 21.5%
USC 7.2% 3.0% 4.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 92.8 4.3%
Stanford 10.0% 3.0% 7.1% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 90.0 7.3%
Utah 2.1% 0.9% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 97.9 1.2%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
California 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Oregon 63.3% 6.3% 60.3% 35.3% 14.1% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
Arizona St. 76.5% 4.0% 74.5% 44.6% 18.1% 7.1% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Arizona 66.5% 5.2% 63.8% 34.7% 12.3% 4.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%
UCLA 60.3% 5.2% 57.6% 30.7% 10.7% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Washington 50.7% 6.7% 47.3% 22.9% 7.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Colorado 36.5% 6.2% 33.2% 15.6% 4.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Oregon St. 26.1% 5.4% 23.2% 10.1% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
USC 7.2% 1.9% 6.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 10.0% 3.0% 8.4% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 2.1% 0.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.0 0.8 7.5 24.5 35.3 23.6 7.4 0.9 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.8 1.3 10.2 29.3 34.9 19.2 4.7 0.5 0.0
2nd Round 93.8% 2.0 6.2 26.5 37.1 22.7 6.5 0.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 55.4% 0.7 44.6 41.3 12.4 1.6 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 24.3% 0.3 75.7 22.2 2.1 0.1 0.0
Final Four 9.1% 0.1 90.9 8.8 0.2 0.0
Final Game 3.1% 0.0 96.9 3.1 0.0
Champion 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0