Pac-12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
37 Washington 97.2%   8   20 - 5 11 - 1 25 - 6 16 - 2 +11.3      +4.1 64 +7.2 22 66.7 243 +16.6 23 +22.2 1
54 Arizona St. 53.4%   12   17 - 8 8 - 5 20 - 10 11 - 7 +8.8      +4.8 51 +4.0 68 76.4 37 +9.7 60 +8.4 4
55 Oregon 15.6%   15 - 10 6 - 6 18 - 13 9 - 9 +8.4      +1.8 126 +6.6 25 63.5 314 +6.6 82 +5.0 8
69 Colorado 9.5%   15 - 9 6 - 6 19 - 11 10 - 8 +7.0      +2.4 110 +4.7 54 70.4 138 +6.1 88 +6.2 6
73 Oregon St. 13.7%   16 - 8 8 - 4 19 - 11 11 - 7 +6.6      +4.7 53 +1.9 121 65.6 274 +7.8 72 +10.5 2
79 USC 6.4%   14 - 12 7 - 6 16 - 15 9 - 9 +6.3      +3.6 76 +2.7 102 73.6 70 +3.9 120 +5.5 7
81 Arizona 6.3%   14 - 11 5 - 7 17 - 14 8 - 10 +6.1      +2.0 121 +4.2 63 67.7 216 +5.9 95 +3.0 10
92 UCLA 3.9%   13 - 13 6 - 7 15 - 16 8 - 10 +5.3      +2.0 120 +3.4 82 79.9 16 +3.6 126 +3.8 9
93 Stanford 5.6%   14 - 11 7 - 6 17 - 13 10 - 8 +5.3      +2.1 118 +3.2 87 73.3 76 +6.6 80 +6.8 5
95 Utah 5.8%   14 - 11 8 - 5 16 - 14 10 - 8 +5.1      +7.3 22 -2.2 237 66.1 255 +6.5 84 +8.9 3
165 Washington St. 0.3%   10 - 15 3 - 9 12 - 19 5 - 13 -0.2      +3.2 88 -3.4 263 73.8 68 -3.2 207 -1.2 11
257 California 0.0%   5 - 20 0 - 13 6 - 24 1 - 17 -5.5      0.0 176 -5.6 321 67.7 217 -8.7 289 -15.5 12






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Washington 1.0 99.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 3.0 0.4 50.6 22.4 12.8 6.8 3.7 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Oregon 5.9 0.0 8.2 11.3 13.2 12.8 13.7 12.6 11.1 9.5 6.9 0.7
Colorado 5.4 0.1 10.1 15.4 15.4 13.8 13.0 11.2 9.0 7.1 4.5 0.4
Oregon St. 3.3 1.2 44.4 20.0 14.0 7.9 5.8 3.7 1.8 1.0 0.2
USC 5.7 8.9 12.4 13.6 12.2 13.2 13.6 12.3 9.4 4.4 0.1
Arizona 7.9 1.4 3.2 5.0 5.8 9.5 11.2 14.7 23.1 24.4 1.7
UCLA 7.5 1.7 4.5 6.3 7.2 11.3 12.9 15.6 21.8 17.8 0.9
Stanford 5.0 0.0 10.1 14.7 17.8 17.2 16.6 12.9 6.8 3.0 0.8 0.0
Utah 4.1 0.3 22.3 23.8 18.4 12.2 9.8 7.1 3.6 2.2 0.4
Washington St. 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 3.0 9.5 85.4 0.0
California 12.0 0.3 99.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Washington 16 - 2 0.0 0.5 3.6 12.5 27.6 35.4 20.3
Arizona St. 11 - 7 0.4 6.2 23.7 36.5 25.9 7.4
Oregon 9 - 9 1.2 7.0 19.0 29.3 27.3 13.5 2.7
Colorado 10 - 8 0.6 4.5 14.7 27.8 30.4 18.3 3.7
Oregon St. 11 - 7 2.4 11.5 24.9 30.0 22.0 8.0 1.3
USC 9 - 9 5.0 18.9 31.5 27.9 13.8 2.8
Arizona 8 - 10 0.6 7.3 23.0 32.2 25.1 10.0 1.8
UCLA 8 - 10 4.7 18.5 31.7 29.1 13.3 2.7
Stanford 10 - 8 0.8 9.4 32.0 36.6 17.8 3.4
Utah 10 - 8 4.8 19.4 33.6 28.6 11.9 1.7
Washington St. 5 - 13 7.0 22.3 31.4 24.3 11.5 3.2 0.4
California 1 - 17 42.9 42.7 12.5 1.8 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Washington 99.7% 98.2 1.3 0.2 0.0
Arizona St. 0.4% 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Oregon 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Colorado 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 1.2% 0.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
USC
Arizona
UCLA
Stanford 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Utah 0.3% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Washington St.
California


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Washington 97.2% 30.6% 66.6% 8   0.2 1.2 2.5 3.9 8.0 15.9 15.9 18.1 18.0 10.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 2.8 96.0%
Arizona St. 53.4% 16.0% 37.4% 12   0.1 0.3 1.0 4.0 11.4 16.1 14.4 5.3 0.8 0.1 46.6 44.5%
Oregon 15.6% 11.0% 4.6% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.6 5.9 4.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 84.4 5.2%
Colorado 9.5% 7.6% 1.9% 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.5 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 90.5 2.0%
Oregon St. 13.7% 9.1% 4.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 5.0 5.0 1.6 0.1 86.3 5.1%
USC 6.4% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.4 2.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 93.6 0.1%
Arizona 6.3% 4.6% 1.7% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 93.7 1.8%
UCLA 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 96.1 0.0%
Stanford 5.6% 5.2% 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.5 1.3 0.1 94.4 0.4%
Utah 5.8% 5.4% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 94.2 0.4%
Washington St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Washington 97.2% 8.5% 93.1% 46.1% 12.2% 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1%
Arizona St. 53.4% 13.1% 46.2% 16.6% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 15.6% 3.4% 13.9% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 9.5% 1.5% 8.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 13.7% 3.7% 11.5% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 6.4% 0.0% 6.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona 6.3% 1.3% 5.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UCLA 3.9% 0.0% 3.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 5.6% 0.3% 5.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 5.8% 0.3% 5.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.2 13.7 57.1 27.2 2.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 0.0 20.5 59.5 19.1 0.9 0.0
2nd Round 62.8% 0.8 37.2 49.1 13.0 0.7
Sweet Sixteen 17.7% 0.2 82.3 16.9 0.8 0.0
Elite Eight 5.1% 0.1 94.9 5.1 0.0
Final Four 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1