Oregon
Pac-12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#35
Achievement Rating+4.5#119
Pace66.5#263
Improvement-2.4#323

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#30
First Shot+7.1#23
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#191
Layup/Dunks+4.5#46
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#288
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#132
Freethrows+3.6#29
Improvement-1.1#266

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#47
First Shot+5.2#38
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#171
Layups/Dunks+4.7#33
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#240
Freethrows-0.3#192
Improvement-1.3#281
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 8.3% 10.0% 2.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.4% 70.5% 47.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.1% 62.8% 38.9%
Average Seed 7.7 7.5 8.8
.500 or above 95.3% 97.0% 89.4%
.500 or above in Conference 87.9% 89.5% 82.6%
Conference Champion 24.2% 26.1% 17.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four6.0% 5.7% 7.3%
First Round62.6% 67.9% 44.5%
Second Round36.8% 40.7% 23.6%
Sweet Sixteen14.5% 16.3% 8.4%
Elite Eight5.8% 6.6% 3.1%
Final Four2.2% 2.5% 1.1%
Championship Game0.8% 1.0% 0.4%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: San Diego (Home) - 77.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 235   Portland St. W 84-57 95%     1 - 0 +19.5 +15.3 +6.6
  Nov 09, 2018 248   Eastern Washington W 81-47 96%     2 - 0 +25.9 +12.4 +16.7
  Nov 15, 2018 39   Iowa L 69-77 53%     2 - 1 +3.1 -3.1 +6.4
  Nov 16, 2018 31   Syracuse W 80-65 49%     3 - 1 +27.2 +15.0 +12.3
  Nov 20, 2018 204   Green Bay W 83-72 94%     4 - 1 +5.4 +1.5 +3.1
  Nov 26, 2018 221   Texas Southern L 84-89 95%     4 - 2 -11.5 -2.4 -8.6
  Dec 01, 2018 33   @ Houston L 61-65 38%     4 - 3 +11.0 -1.3 +12.2
  Dec 08, 2018 234   Nebraska Omaha W 84-61 95%     5 - 3 +15.5 +20.3 -0.9
  Dec 12, 2018 71   San Diego W 73-65 77%    
  Dec 15, 2018 127   Boise St. W 76-64 87%    
  Dec 18, 2018 335   Florida A&M W 81-54 99%    
  Dec 21, 2018 82   @ Baylor W 69-66 60%    
  Dec 29, 2018 127   @ Boise St. W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 05, 2019 64   Oregon St. W 72-65 75%    
  Jan 10, 2019 43   UCLA W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 13, 2019 92   USC W 79-70 80%    
  Jan 17, 2019 40   @ Arizona L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 19, 2019 36   @ Arizona St. L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 24, 2019 44   Washington W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 27, 2019 161   Washington St. W 83-68 91%    
  Jan 31, 2019 133   @ Utah W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 02, 2019 59   @ Colorado W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 06, 2019 177   California W 79-63 93%    
  Feb 10, 2019 97   Stanford W 75-66 80%    
  Feb 16, 2019 64   @ Oregon St. W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 21, 2019 92   @ USC W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 23, 2019 43   @ UCLA L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 28, 2019 36   Arizona St. W 76-73 61%    
  Mar 02, 2019 40   Arizona W 73-69 63%    
  Mar 06, 2019 161   @ Washington St. W 80-71 78%    
  Mar 09, 2019 44   @ Washington L 70-71 46%    
Projected Record 20.6 - 10.4 11.7 - 6.3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.6 6.8 4.2 1.7 0.4 24.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.4 6.9 4.0 1.0 0.1 17.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.5 3.1 0.4 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.8 8.6 11.4 13.8 14.9 14.0 11.0 7.8 4.3 1.7 0.4 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
16-2 97.9% 4.2    3.9 0.4 0.0
15-3 87.3% 6.8    5.1 1.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 60.1% 6.6    3.3 2.7 0.6 0.0
13-5 26.4% 3.7    0.9 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.2% 24.2 15.4 6.4 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 53.4% 46.6% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.7% 99.9% 49.2% 50.7% 3.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 4.3% 99.5% 40.2% 59.3% 4.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
15-3 7.8% 98.3% 35.7% 62.6% 5.4 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.4%
14-4 11.0% 96.0% 29.7% 66.3% 6.6 0.1 0.9 1.8 2.5 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 94.3%
13-5 14.0% 90.0% 24.8% 65.3% 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 86.8%
12-6 14.9% 79.0% 19.1% 59.9% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.4 2.7 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.1 74.0%
11-7 13.8% 63.5% 14.5% 49.0% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.0 57.3%
10-8 11.4% 42.6% 9.8% 32.8% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.5 36.3%
9-9 8.6% 24.5% 6.8% 17.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.5 19.0%
8-10 5.8% 8.2% 4.5% 3.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.3 3.9%
7-11 3.3% 4.1% 3.5% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.6%
6-12 1.8% 2.8% 2.7% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.1%
5-13 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 65.4% 19.3% 46.1% 7.7 0.3 1.0 2.6 4.5 5.5 7.4 8.3 8.4 8.7 8.0 7.0 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 34.6 57.1%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 75.9 21.6 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.8 33.3 55.6 11.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 31.4 48.6 14.3 2.9 2.9