Washington
Pac-12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#36
Achievement Rating+16.6#21
Pace66.7#242
Improvement+0.8#149

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#62
First Shot+2.0#125
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#44
Layup/Dunks+0.9#150
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#173
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#197
Freethrows+1.7#62
Improvement-0.8#225

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#21
First Shot+7.9#11
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#250
Layups/Dunks+6.6#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#64
Freethrows+0.5#139
Improvement+1.6#100
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.0% 4.9% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.5% 98.2% 94.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.4% 97.3% 92.7%
Average Seed 8.4 8.2 9.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 99.6% 99.9% 98.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.6% 7.2% 14.6%
First Round93.3% 94.7% 87.3%
Second Round46.8% 48.8% 38.5%
Sweet Sixteen12.2% 13.2% 8.2%
Elite Eight3.8% 4.1% 2.5%
Final Four0.9% 1.0% 0.6%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah (Home) - 80.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 122   Western Kentucky W 73-55 84%     1 - 0 +18.6 +4.4 +14.9
  Nov 09, 2018 14   @ Auburn L 66-88 25%     1 - 1 -3.6 +0.2 -3.7
  Nov 12, 2018 103   San Diego W 66-63 81%     2 - 1 +5.0 +0.8 +4.4
  Nov 18, 2018 189   Santa Clara W 82-68 89%     3 - 1 +12.2 +6.6 +5.1
  Nov 20, 2018 85   Texas A&M W 71-67 70%     4 - 1 +9.9 +5.9 +4.3
  Nov 21, 2018 43   Minnesota L 66-68 56%     4 - 2 +7.7 +0.0 +7.7
  Nov 27, 2018 238   Eastern Washington W 83-59 95%     5 - 2 +16.6 +2.4 +13.3
  Dec 02, 2018 172   UC Santa Barbara W 67-63 91%     6 - 2 +0.7 -8.5 +9.2
  Dec 05, 2018 2   @ Gonzaga L 79-81 8%     6 - 3 +24.8 +19.3 +5.4
  Dec 09, 2018 193   Seattle W 70-62 92%     7 - 3 +3.3 -2.2 +5.6
  Dec 15, 2018 17   Virginia Tech L 61-73 34%     7 - 4 +3.5 -1.7 +4.3
  Dec 21, 2018 264   Sacramento St. W 57-41 96%     8 - 4 +7.3 -13.7 +22.4
  Jan 01, 2019 159   Cal St. Fullerton W 84-76 90%     9 - 4 +5.4 +8.5 -3.5
  Jan 05, 2019 167   Washington St. W 85-67 90%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +15.0 +11.3 +4.6
  Jan 10, 2019 95   @ Utah W 69-53 63%     11 - 4 2 - 0 +23.9 +1.6 +23.7
  Jan 12, 2019 66   @ Colorado W 77-70 55%     12 - 4 3 - 0 +16.9 +11.8 +5.2
  Jan 17, 2019 92   Stanford W 80-64 80%     13 - 4 4 - 0 +18.6 +15.6 +4.3
  Jan 19, 2019 257   California W 71-52 96%     14 - 4 5 - 0 +10.7 -9.0 +19.6
  Jan 24, 2019 55   @ Oregon W 61-56 51%     15 - 4 6 - 0 +16.2 +4.2 +12.7
  Jan 26, 2019 75   @ Oregon St. W 79-69 58%     16 - 4 7 - 0 +19.4 +14.8 +5.3
  Jan 30, 2019 78   USC W 75-62 77%     17 - 4 8 - 0 +16.5 +3.7 +12.8
  Feb 02, 2019 94   UCLA W 69-55 80%     18 - 4 9 - 0 +16.5 -5.3 +21.1
  Feb 07, 2019 84   @ Arizona W 67-60 60%     19 - 4 10 - 0 +15.7 +3.2 +13.0
  Feb 09, 2019 54   @ Arizona St. L 63-75 49%     19 - 5 10 - 1 -0.5 -8.0 +8.2
  Feb 16, 2019 167   @ Washington St. W 72-70 80%     20 - 5 11 - 1 +4.5 +4.8 -0.1
  Feb 20, 2019 95   Utah W 76-67 81%    
  Feb 23, 2019 66   Colorado W 71-64 75%    
  Feb 28, 2019 257   @ California W 78-64 90%    
  Mar 03, 2019 92   @ Stanford W 71-68 61%    
  Mar 06, 2019 75   Oregon St. W 72-65 77%    
  Mar 09, 2019 55   Oregon W 66-60 71%    
Projected Record 24.5 - 6.5 15.5 - 2.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.3 12.5 27.9 35.3 20.3 99.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.5 3.4 12.5 27.9 35.3 20.3 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 20.3    20.3
16-2 100.0% 35.3    35.3
15-3 100.0% 27.9    27.9
14-4 100.0% 12.5    12.1 0.4
13-5 95.8% 3.3    2.3 0.9 0.1
12-6 66.4% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 13.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8
9-9
Total 99.6% 99.6 98.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 20.3% 99.8% 36.2% 63.6% 6.4 0.1 1.3 2.3 3.0 3.6 4.2 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
16-2 35.3% 99.1% 31.7% 67.4% 8.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.8 7.4 7.3 7.0 5.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 98.7%
15-3 27.9% 97.6% 28.3% 69.4% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 4.8 6.4 7.0 4.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.7 96.7%
14-4 12.5% 93.9% 24.0% 69.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.6 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.8 92.0%
13-5 3.4% 84.9% 21.3% 63.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 80.9%
12-6 0.5% 65.3% 16.4% 48.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 58.5%
11-7 0.0% 25.0% 11.1% 13.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.6%
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.5% 30.2% 67.3% 8.4 0.1 1.3 2.6 4.1 8.3 15.4 16.0 18.1 17.9 10.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 2.5 96.4%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.3% 100.0% 4.6 1.9 17.0 28.1 29.2 16.4 5.8 1.2 0.2 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.2% 99.9% 6.9 0.3 4.4 11.2 25.2 29.0 15.4 9.3 4.1 1.0 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.3% 99.8% 7.4 0.1 1.5 6.3 19.1 30.3 20.1 13.8 6.2 2.1 0.1