USC
Pac-12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#78
Achievement Rating+3.9#119
Pace73.7#73
Improvement+0.3#177

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#80
First Shot+3.0#85
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#133
Layup/Dunks+2.9#78
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#112
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#174
Freethrows-1.1#254
Improvement-0.6#221

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#102
First Shot+4.6#47
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#323
Layups/Dunks+1.2#121
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#140
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#173
Freethrows+2.7#26
Improvement+0.9#125
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 8.0% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.9 12.5
.500 or above 78.7% 92.4% 63.3%
.500 or above in Conference 75.9% 91.2% 58.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round6.3% 8.0% 4.4%
Second Round1.3% 1.7% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Home) - 52.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 272   Robert Morris W 83-62 92%     1 - 0 +11.9 +4.2 +6.5
  Nov 11, 2018 119   Vanderbilt L 78-82 69%     1 - 1 -3.0 -0.7 -2.0
  Nov 14, 2018 335   Stetson W 95-59 97%     2 - 1 +20.9 +5.5 +12.2
  Nov 19, 2018 9   Texas Tech L 63-78 16%     2 - 2 +1.9 +1.8 +0.5
  Nov 20, 2018 148   Missouri St. W 99-80 69%     3 - 2 +20.3 +22.4 -2.9
  Nov 25, 2018 200   Cal St. Bakersfield W 90-75 86%     4 - 2 +9.9 +10.3 -1.0
  Nov 28, 2018 221   Long Beach St. W 75-65 87%     5 - 2 +3.8 -3.8 +7.3
  Dec 01, 2018 13   Nevada L 61-73 25%     5 - 3 +1.3 -6.0 +7.3
  Dec 07, 2018 37   TCU L 61-96 31%     5 - 4 -23.7 -14.2 -5.1
  Dec 15, 2018 34   @ Oklahoma L 70-81 22%     5 - 5 +3.4 -4.0 +9.0
  Dec 18, 2018 189   @ Santa Clara L 92-102 70%     5 - 6 -9.0 -0.5 -6.2
  Dec 21, 2018 279   Southern Utah W 91-49 92%     6 - 6 +32.6 +5.9 +22.5
  Dec 30, 2018 207   UC Davis W 73-55 86%     7 - 6 +12.5 +7.7 +6.8
  Jan 03, 2019 257   California W 82-73 91%     8 - 6 1 - 0 +0.7 +6.8 -5.6
  Jan 06, 2019 92   Stanford W 77-66 64%     9 - 6 2 - 0 +13.6 +9.4 +4.7
  Jan 10, 2019 75   @ Oregon St. L 74-79 38%     9 - 7 2 - 1 +4.4 +2.9 +1.6
  Jan 13, 2019 55   @ Oregon L 60-81 32%     9 - 8 2 - 2 -9.8 -0.2 -11.1
  Jan 19, 2019 94   UCLA W 80-67 64%     10 - 8 3 - 2 +15.5 +0.3 +13.7
  Jan 24, 2019 84   Arizona W 80-57 62%     11 - 8 4 - 2 +26.2 +5.7 +19.3
  Jan 26, 2019 54   Arizona St. W 69-67 51%     12 - 8 5 - 2 +8.0 -5.0 +12.9
  Jan 30, 2019 36   @ Washington L 62-75 23%     12 - 9 5 - 3 +1.1 -2.0 +3.0
  Feb 02, 2019 167   @ Washington St. W 93-84 64%     13 - 9 6 - 3 +11.5 +14.5 -3.3
  Feb 06, 2019 95   Utah L 70-77 65%     13 - 10 6 - 4 -4.6 -6.9 +2.4
  Feb 09, 2019 66   Colorado L 65-69 57%     13 - 11 6 - 5 +0.4 +0.8 -0.7
  Feb 13, 2019 92   @ Stanford L 76-79 43%     13 - 12 6 - 6 +5.1 +8.1 -3.0
  Feb 16, 2019 257   @ California W 89-66 80%     14 - 12 7 - 6 +20.2 +10.9 +9.0
  Feb 21, 2019 55   Oregon W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 23, 2019 75   Oregon St. W 75-73 60%    
  Feb 28, 2019 94   @ UCLA L 78-80 43%    
  Mar 07, 2019 95   @ Utah L 76-78 43%    
  Mar 09, 2019 66   @ Colorado L 71-75 35%    
Projected Record 16.3 - 14.7 9.3 - 8.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.6 5.6 2.4 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 5.1 6.5 0.3 11.9 3rd
4th 0.3 11.4 1.3 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 3.7 8.5 0.1 12.3 5th
6th 0.1 11.0 2.3 13.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 12.1 0.2 14.1 7th
8th 0.2 9.0 4.2 0.0 13.5 8th
9th 2.2 7.2 0.2 9.6 9th
10th 2.5 1.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 5.0 19.1 31.5 28.1 13.5 2.7 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 2.7% 17.5% 15.5% 2.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.3%
11-7 13.5% 12.5% 12.4% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 11.8 0.1%
10-8 28.1% 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 25.7 0.0%
9-9 31.5% 3.6% 3.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 30.4
8-10 19.1% 2.7% 2.7% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 18.6
7-11 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.9
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.3% 6.2% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 93.7 0.1%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.5 0.2 2.6 9.1 32.2 43.2 12.4 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 5.6% 11.7 0.2 2.0 2.7 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 3.0% 12.3 0.3 1.7 0.8 0.3
Lose Out 2.8%