IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
American
Patriot League
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.5	#242
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.8	#262
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.3	#237

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.2	#254

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.3%	13.0%	6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	14.2	15.0

.500 or above	46.1%	71.5%	41.0%
.500 or above in Conference	50.9%	68.0%	47.5%
Conference Champion	9.5%	17.9%	7.8%
Last Place in Conference	12.8%	5.2%	14.4%

First Four	1.6%	1.8%	1.6%
First Round	6.5%	12.0%	5.4%
Second Round	0.4%	1.0%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 16.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.2	0.0 - 0.2
Quad 1b	0.0 - 0.5	0.0 - 0.7
Quad 2	0.2 - 1.8	0.3 - 2.5
Quad 3	2.3 - 5.7	2.5 - 8.2
Quad 4	11.5 - 6.8	14.0 - 15.0

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2018	129	@ George Mason	L	68-75	17%
Nov 12, 2018	62	@ Northwestern	L	60-73	7%
Nov 16, 2018	316	New Hampshire	W	68-63	76%
Nov 24, 2018	214	@ Maryland Baltimore Co.	L	69-70	35%
Nov 27, 2018	310	@ VMI	W	71-67	54%
Nov 30, 2018	215	Wagner	L	67-68	55%
Dec 04, 2018	160	St. Francis (PA)	L	70-75	45%
Dec 08, 2018	305	@ Howard	W	76-72	52%
Dec 18, 2018	331	Mount St. Mary's	W	69-62	81%
Dec 22, 2018	341	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	71-62	85%
Dec 29, 2018	208	@ George Washington	L	66-68	35%
Jan 02, 2019	223	Boston University	L	69-70	57%
Jan 06, 2019	209	@ Colgate	L	68-70	35%
Jan 09, 2019	260	Navy	W	66-65	64%
Jan 12, 2019	171	@ Bucknell	L	71-75	27%
Jan 16, 2019	185	@ Lehigh	L	72-75	29%
Jan 19, 2019	293	Lafayette	W	73-70	68%
Jan 23, 2019	223	@ Boston University	L	69-70	38%
Jan 26, 2019	171	Bucknell	L	71-75	46%
Jan 30, 2019	300	@ Loyola Maryland	W	71-68	51%
Feb 02, 2019	206	Holy Cross	L	63-65	53%
Feb 06, 2019	260	@ Navy	W	66-65	44%
Feb 09, 2019	216	Army	L	72-73	56%
Feb 13, 2019	300	Loyola Maryland	W	71-68	70%
Feb 16, 2019	209	Colgate	L	68-70	55%
Feb 20, 2019	293	@ Lafayette	W	73-70	49%
Feb 24, 2019	216	@ Army	L	72-73	37%
Feb 27, 2019	185	Lehigh	L	72-75	48%
Mar 02, 2019	206	@ Holy Cross	L	63-65	35%
Projected Record						14.0 - 15.0	8.6 - 9.4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Patriot League Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.8	2.2	2.5	2.0	1.2	0.6	0.1		9.5	1st
2nd										0.0	0.3	1.6	3.6	2.8	1.3	0.3	0.0				9.8	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.4	1.8	4.2	2.3	0.9	0.1	0.0					9.6	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	2.3	4.7	2.5	0.6	0.0							10.4	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	2.2	5.1	2.6	0.3	0.0								10.5	5th
6th						0.0	0.2	2.4	4.7	2.9	0.4	0.0									10.6	6th
7th					0.0	0.4	2.5	5.1	2.7	0.4	0.0										11.1	7th
8th				0.0	0.6	2.7	3.9	2.6	0.4	0.0											10.2	8th
9th		0.0	0.2	1.2	3.0	3.3	2.0	0.3	0.0												10.0	9th
10th	0.2	0.8	1.8	2.5	2.0	0.9	0.1	0.0													8.2	10th

Total	0.2	0.9	2.0	3.8	5.6	7.2	8.8	10.5	10.2	11.1	9.9	8.8	7.2	5.9	3.8	2.2	1.3	0.6	0.1			Total

Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.6		0.6
16-2	98.6%	1.2		1.1	0.1
15-3	87.7%	2.0		1.6	0.4	0.0
14-4	65.0%	2.5		1.6	0.7	0.1	0.0
13-5	37.5%	2.2		0.7	1.0	0.4	0.1
12-6	10.5%	0.8		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
11-7	1.4%	0.1			0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.1%	0.0							0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	9.5%	9.5		5.9	2.5	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		97.1%	96.6%	0.6%	9.2						0.0	0.0					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		16.7%
17-1	0.6%		62.9%	62.6%	0.4%	12.4									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.2		1.0%
16-2	1.3%		45.3%	45.3%	0.1%	13.7												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.7		0.1%
15-3	2.2%		36.6%	36.6%		14.0													0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.0	1.4
14-4	3.8%		29.6%	29.6%		14.5													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.2	2.7
13-5	5.9%		19.6%	19.6%		15.0													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.4	4.7
12-6	7.2%		14.0%	14.0%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	6.2
11-7	8.8%		7.6%	7.6%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	8.1
10-8	9.9%		5.1%	5.1%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	9.4
9-9	11.1%		4.6%	4.6%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.5	10.6
8-10	10.2%		1.9%	1.9%		15.9																0.0	0.2	10.0
7-11	10.5%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.1	10.3
6-12	8.8%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	8.7
5-13	7.2%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	7.2
4-14	5.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	5.6
3-15	3.8%																							3.8
2-16	2.0%																							2.0
1-17	0.9%																							0.9
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		7.3%	7.3%	0.0%	14.8						0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.8	1.2	2.0	2.9	92.7		0.0%