Preseason Rankings
Lafayette
Patriot League
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#293
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.3#176
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#245
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#323
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 4.5% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 23.8% 45.0% 18.9%
.500 or above in Conference 31.2% 45.3% 27.9%
Conference Champion 3.6% 7.3% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 25.3% 14.6% 27.8%
First Four1.0% 1.3% 1.0%
First Round2.0% 3.7% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Away) - 18.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.10.0 - 0.1
Quad 1b0.0 - 0.50.0 - 0.7
Quad 20.2 - 2.30.2 - 3.0
Quad 32.0 - 7.42.3 - 10.3
Quad 48.0 - 7.410.3 - 17.7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 178   @ St. Peter's L 61-68 19%    
  Nov 10, 2018 166   @ La Salle L 71-78 17%    
  Nov 13, 2018 125   @ Penn L 68-78 12%    
  Nov 18, 2018 318   St. Francis Brooklyn W 75-73 67%    
  Nov 25, 2018 252   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 76-78 33%    
  Nov 28, 2018 248   Cornell L 75-77 52%    
  Dec 02, 2018 324   Sacred Heart W 74-71 69%    
  Dec 05, 2018 96   @ Connecticut L 66-78 9%    
  Dec 08, 2018 238   @ Quinnipiac L 71-74 31%    
  Dec 21, 2018 145   Princeton L 65-74 31%    
  Jan 02, 2019 185   @ Lehigh L 74-80 22%    
  Jan 05, 2019 216   @ Army L 73-77 26%    
  Jan 09, 2019 300   Loyola Maryland W 73-72 62%    
  Jan 12, 2019 206   @ Holy Cross L 64-69 27%    
  Jan 16, 2019 260   Navy L 67-69 55%    
  Jan 19, 2019 242   @ American L 70-73 32%    
  Jan 23, 2019 209   @ Colgate L 70-74 27%    
  Jan 26, 2019 216   Army L 73-77 46%    
  Jan 30, 2019 185   Lehigh L 74-80 40%    
  Feb 02, 2019 171   Bucknell L 73-80 36%    
  Feb 06, 2019 223   @ Boston University L 70-74 30%    
  Feb 10, 2019 206   Holy Cross L 64-69 45%    
  Feb 13, 2019 260   @ Navy L 67-69 36%    
  Feb 17, 2019 300   @ Loyola Maryland W 73-72 41%    
  Feb 20, 2019 242   American L 70-73 51%    
  Feb 24, 2019 171   @ Bucknell L 73-80 21%    
  Feb 27, 2019 223   Boston University L 70-74 48%    
  Mar 02, 2019 209   Colgate L 70-74 46%    
Projected Record 10.3 - 17.7 6.9 - 11.1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.5 2.5 0.2 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.8 5.4 2.8 0.4 0.0 13.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.1 4.9 5.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 16.1 9th
10th 0.7 2.4 4.4 5.0 3.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 17.5 10th
Total 0.7 2.4 5.1 7.2 9.4 11.1 11.7 11.0 10.1 9.1 7.5 5.6 3.8 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 99.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 89.4% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 62.2% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 41.8% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 12.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 12.9% 12.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 71.1% 71.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 51.9% 51.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.8% 36.2% 36.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.5% 19.2% 19.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2
13-5 2.4% 10.8% 10.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2
12-6 3.8% 9.9% 9.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 3.4
11-7 5.6% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.2
10-8 7.5% 4.8% 4.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 7.2
9-9 9.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.9
8-10 10.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.0
7-11 11.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.0
6-12 11.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.7
5-13 11.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.0
4-14 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.4
3-15 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.2
2-16 5.1% 5.1
1-17 2.4% 2.4
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.5 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%