Preseason Rankings
Iowa
Big Ten
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#34
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.9#61
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.3#9
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#120
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 4.5% 13.6% 2.5%
Top 4 Seed 13.3% 13.6% 2.5%
Top 6 Seed 24.0% 13.6% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.0% 52.8% 22.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 48.4% 49.3% 20.2%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 7.9
.500 or above 82.2% 83.2% 50.4%
.500 or above in Conference 54.2% 55.0% 28.2%
Conference Champion 6.3% 6.4% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 4.9% 14.9%
First Four4.0% 4.1% 1.9%
First Round49.9% 50.7% 21.5%
Second Round31.9% 32.5% 12.6%
Sweet Sixteen14.6% 14.8% 5.9%
Elite Eight6.6% 6.8% 2.5%
Final Four2.9% 3.0% 0.6%
Championship Game1.2% 1.3% 0.5%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Home) - 97.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.8 - 4.91.8 - 4.9
Quad 1b2.4 - 2.74.2 - 7.6
Quad 24.5 - 2.68.7 - 10.2
Quad 34.4 - 1.013.0 - 11.2
Quad 46.6 - 0.219.6 - 11.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2018 279   UMKC W 88-71 97%    
  Nov 11, 2018 235   Green Bay W 90-75 95%    
  Nov 15, 2018 17   Oregon L 76-78 41%    
  Nov 16, 2018 96   Connecticut W 80-74 71%    
  Nov 21, 2018 325   Alabama St. W 90-69 99%    
  Nov 27, 2018 167   Pittsburgh W 79-68 89%    
  Nov 30, 2018 22   Wisconsin L 71-73 54%    
  Dec 03, 2018 10   @ Michigan St. L 76-80 27%    
  Dec 06, 2018 30   Iowa St. L 80-81 59%    
  Dec 15, 2018 116   Northern Iowa W 74-66 75%    
  Dec 18, 2018 307   Western Carolina W 88-69 97%    
  Dec 22, 2018 353   Savannah St. W 108-79 99.6%   
  Dec 29, 2018 315   Bryant W 93-73 98%    
  Jan 03, 2019 27   @ Purdue L 77-78 35%    
  Jan 06, 2019 35   Nebraska W 78-77 60%    
  Jan 09, 2019 62   @ Northwestern W 75-73 48%    
  Jan 12, 2019 40   Ohio St. W 77-76 61%    
  Jan 16, 2019 57   @ Penn St. W 77-75 47%    
  Jan 20, 2019 76   Illinois W 84-80 73%    
  Jan 24, 2019 10   Michigan St. L 76-80 45%    
  Jan 27, 2019 68   @ Minnesota W 83-80 50%    
  Feb 01, 2019 19   Michigan L 72-74 53%    
  Feb 07, 2019 25   @ Indiana L 77-78 36%    
  Feb 10, 2019 62   Northwestern W 75-73 68%    
  Feb 16, 2019 140   @ Rutgers W 77-68 68%    
  Feb 19, 2019 32   Maryland L 77-78 59%    
  Feb 22, 2019 25   Indiana L 77-78 55%    
  Feb 26, 2019 40   @ Ohio St. W 77-76 42%    
  Mar 02, 2019 140   Rutgers W 77-68 83%    
  Mar 07, 2019 22   @ Wisconsin L 71-73 34%    
  Mar 10, 2019 35   @ Nebraska W 78-77 39%    
Projected Record 19.6 - 11.4 9.9 - 9.1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 6.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 3.2 2.3 0.6 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 3.6 2.7 0.6 0.1 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.7 2.8 0.6 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.2 3.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.2 1.2 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.0 2.3 0.3 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 3.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.1 1.0 0.1 7.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.6 1.3 0.1 6.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.1 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.2 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.0 4.6 6.9 9.0 9.2 10.2 10.8 10.5 9.6 8.1 6.6 4.0 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 97.6% 0.6    0.6 0.0
17-3 93.7% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0
16-4 74.4% 1.9    1.2 0.6 0.1
15-5 36.1% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 11.7% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 3.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 47.8% 52.2% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 1.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.6% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 2.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.0% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 3.4 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.6% 99.3% 13.5% 85.8% 4.6 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
13-7 8.1% 97.7% 10.7% 86.9% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.4%
12-8 9.6% 93.0% 8.7% 84.3% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 92.3%
11-9 10.5% 82.5% 7.7% 74.8% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 81.0%
10-10 10.8% 58.0% 4.3% 53.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.5 56.1%
9-11 10.2% 32.6% 3.4% 29.2% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.8 30.2%
8-12 9.2% 12.5% 3.0% 9.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 9.8%
7-13 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 1.0%
6-14 6.9% 2.5% 2.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.7
5-15 4.6% 1.0% 1.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6
4-16 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 3.0
3-17 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.9
2-18 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-19 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 52.0% 6.9% 45.0% 6.7 1.9 2.6 4.3 4.5 5.4 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.4 5.0 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 48.0 48.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 53.2 46.8