Preseason Rankings
Indiana
Big Ten
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.5#25
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.6#237
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#22
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#35
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.5% 3.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 8.6% 21.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 21.4% 21.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 34.3% 21.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.5% 64.5% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.6% 60.6% 3.1%
Average Seed 6.2 6.2 7.5
.500 or above 84.1% 84.2% 22.0%
.500 or above in Conference 71.4% 71.4% 21.5%
Conference Champion 15.1% 15.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 2.2% 3.1%
First Four3.5% 3.5% 0.5%
First Round62.8% 62.8% 2.6%
Second Round42.1% 42.2% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen21.1% 21.1% 0.5%
Elite Eight10.4% 10.4% 0.0%
Final Four4.8% 4.8% 0.0%
Championship Game2.2% 2.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2.5 - 5.42.5 - 5.4
Quad 1b2.9 - 2.55.4 - 7.9
Quad 25.1 - 2.310.5 - 10.2
Quad 33.9 - 0.714.3 - 10.9
Quad 45.6 - 0.220.0 - 11.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 350   Chicago St. W 89-60 99.9%   
  Nov 09, 2018 251   Montana St. W 84-66 97%    
  Nov 14, 2018 24   Marquette L 76-77 61%    
  Nov 18, 2018 94   @ Arkansas W 78-71 66%    
  Nov 20, 2018 256   Texas Arlington W 84-66 97%    
  Nov 23, 2018 131   UC Davis W 74-64 87%    
  Nov 27, 2018 4   @ Duke L 74-80 22%    
  Dec 01, 2018 62   Northwestern W 70-66 73%    
  Dec 04, 2018 57   @ Penn St. W 72-68 52%    
  Dec 08, 2018 54   Louisville W 75-72 71%    
  Dec 15, 2018 33   Butler W 72-71 55%    
  Dec 19, 2018 303   Central Arkansas W 87-67 98%    
  Dec 22, 2018 289   Jacksonville W 82-62 97%    
  Jan 03, 2019 76   Illinois W 78-72 77%    
  Jan 06, 2019 19   @ Michigan L 67-68 37%    
  Jan 11, 2019 32   @ Maryland W 72-71 45%    
  Jan 14, 2019 35   Nebraska W 73-71 64%    
  Jan 19, 2019 27   @ Purdue W 72-71 41%    
  Jan 22, 2019 62   @ Northwestern W 70-66 53%    
  Jan 25, 2019 19   Michigan L 67-68 57%    
  Jan 30, 2019 140   @ Rutgers W 72-62 72%    
  Feb 02, 2019 10   @ Michigan St. L 70-73 31%    
  Feb 07, 2019 34   Iowa W 78-77 64%    
  Feb 10, 2019 40   Ohio St. W 72-70 66%    
  Feb 16, 2019 68   @ Minnesota W 77-72 55%    
  Feb 19, 2019 27   Purdue W 72-71 62%    
  Feb 22, 2019 34   @ Iowa W 78-77 45%    
  Feb 26, 2019 22   Wisconsin L 66-67 58%    
  Mar 02, 2019 10   Michigan St. L 70-73 50%    
  Mar 07, 2019 76   @ Illinois W 78-72 60%    
  Mar 10, 2019 140   Rutgers W 72-62 87%    
Projected Record 20.0 - 11.0 11.5 - 8.5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.1 3.8 3.7 2.2 0.9 0.1 15.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.8 3.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 4.0 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.1 0.8 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.4 3.8 0.8 0.1 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.7 1.0 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 2.6 2.0 0.2 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.8 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.1 6.9 7.7 10.0 10.1 11.1 10.0 9.2 7.9 5.7 4.1 2.3 0.9 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 97.9% 2.2    2.1 0.1
17-3 89.7% 3.7    3.1 0.6 0.0
16-4 66.5% 3.8    2.2 1.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 40.0% 3.1    1.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.5% 1.1    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.1% 15.1 9.9 4.1 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.9% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.3% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.1% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 2.3 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.7% 100.0% 19.8% 80.2% 3.1 0.5 1.3 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.9% 99.7% 17.6% 82.0% 4.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-6 9.2% 99.3% 12.9% 86.5% 5.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.3 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
13-7 10.0% 97.1% 9.2% 87.9% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.8%
12-8 11.1% 90.3% 9.4% 81.0% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 2.1 2.5 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 89.3%
11-9 10.1% 73.6% 7.6% 66.1% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 71.5%
10-10 10.0% 48.5% 5.8% 42.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 45.3%
9-11 7.7% 22.2% 4.0% 18.2% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 19.0%
8-12 6.9% 6.1% 2.5% 3.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 3.7%
7-13 5.1% 2.9% 2.3% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.6%
6-14 3.8% 1.6% 1.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
5-15 2.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.5
4-16 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.4
3-17 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 64.5% 9.9% 54.6% 6.2 3.5 5.0 6.6 6.2 6.9 6.0 6.9 7.5 5.2 5.1 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 35.5 60.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 72.0 28.0