IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+9.1	#54
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.1	#95
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+5.1	#53

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.0	#58

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
#1 Seed	1.1%	1.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	3.1%	10.7%	1.1%
Top 4 Seed	10.3%	10.7%	1.1%
Top 6 Seed	20.5%	10.7%	1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	38.6%	39.6%	16.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	36.9%	38.0%	15.6%
Average Seed	6.4	6.4	7.9

.500 or above	55.5%	56.9%	24.6%
.500 or above in Conference	42.8%	43.8%	21.7%
Conference Champion	2.0%	2.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	5.3%	4.9%	14.4%

First Four	2.3%	2.3%	2.2%
First Round	37.6%	38.6%	15.4%
Second Round	23.1%	23.9%	7.2%
Sweet Sixteen	9.9%	10.3%	2.9%
Elite Eight	4.4%	4.5%	1.3%
Final Four	1.7%	1.8%	0.3%
Championship Game	0.7%	0.8%	0.0%
National Champion	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 95.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1.9 - 7.9	1.9 - 7.9
Quad 1b	1.6 - 2.6	3.5 - 10.5
Quad 2	3.2 - 2.7	6.7 - 13.2
Quad 3	4.5 - 1.4	11.2 - 14.5
Quad 4	5.0 - 0.2	16.2 - 14.8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2018	263	Nicholls St.	W	86-71	95%
Nov 13, 2018	343	Southern	W	83-60	99%
Nov 16, 2018	124	Vermont	W	74-68	79%
Nov 21, 2018	9	Tennessee	L	68-75	26%
Nov 23, 2018	24	Marquette	L	77-81	38%
Nov 27, 2018	10	Michigan St.	L	71-77	38%
Dec 01, 2018	52	@ Seton Hall	L	76-77	38%
Dec 05, 2018	303	Central Arkansas	W	88-71	96%
Dec 08, 2018	25	@ Indiana	L	72-75	29%
Dec 12, 2018	136	Lipscomb	W	85-78	80%
Dec 15, 2018	159	Kent St.	W	79-70	85%
Dec 21, 2018	233	Robert Morris	W	79-66	92%
Dec 29, 2018	3	Kentucky	L	72-81	30%
Jan 06, 2019	23	Miami (FL)	L	71-75	48%
Jan 09, 2019	167	@ Pittsburgh	W	74-65	71%
Jan 12, 2019	6	@ North Carolina	L	75-84	16%
Jan 16, 2019	78	Boston College	W	78-76	67%
Jan 19, 2019	113	@ Georgia Tech	W	72-67	58%
Jan 24, 2019	38	North Carolina St.	L	80-82	55%
Jan 26, 2019	167	Pittsburgh	W	74-65	85%
Jan 30, 2019	115	@ Wake Forest	W	79-73	59%
Feb 02, 2019	6	North Carolina	L	75-84	31%
Feb 04, 2019	20	@ Virginia Tech	L	75-79	27%
Feb 09, 2019	15	@ Florida St.	L	77-82	26%
Feb 12, 2019	4	Duke	L	75-84	30%
Feb 16, 2019	18	Clemson	L	69-73	47%
Feb 20, 2019	12	@ Syracuse	L	65-71	23%
Feb 23, 2019	2	Virginia	L	58-68	30%
Feb 27, 2019	78	@ Boston College	W	78-76	49%
Mar 03, 2019	49	Notre Dame	L	71-72	58%
Mar 09, 2019	2	@ Virginia	L	58-68	15%
Projected Record						16.2 - 14.8	8.0 - 10.0

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0		2.0	1st
2nd													0.2	1.0	1.0	0.3	0.0				2.6	2nd
3rd												0.2	1.5	1.4	0.5	0.0					3.7	3rd
4th											0.2	1.5	2.5	0.9	0.0						5.0	4th
5th									0.0	0.1	1.4	3.1	1.3	0.1							6.0	5th
6th									0.0	1.0	3.5	2.4	0.2	0.0							7.1	6th
7th								0.0	0.7	3.6	3.6	0.7	0.0								8.6	7th
8th							0.0	0.5	3.1	4.1	1.3	0.1									9.1	8th
9th						0.0	0.3	2.7	4.8	2.4	0.1										10.4	9th
10th						0.3	2.2	5.1	2.8	0.4	0.0										10.8	10th
11th				0.0	0.2	2.1	5.0	3.1	0.5	0.0											11.0	11th
12th			0.0	0.3	1.8	4.0	3.0	0.6	0.0												9.7	12th
13th			0.1	1.2	2.9	2.2	0.4	0.0													6.8	13th
14th		0.1	0.8	1.8	1.3	0.4	0.0	0.0													4.4	14th
15th	0.2	0.7	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.0															2.7	15th

Total	0.2	0.7	2.0	3.8	6.4	9.0	11.1	12.1	11.8	11.6	10.2	8.0	5.8	3.6	2.1	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0		Total

Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-2	98.7%	0.3		0.3	0.1	0.0
15-3	67.9%	0.7		0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
14-4	25.8%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	5.8%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.7%	0.0			0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.0%	2.0		0.9	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%							0.0
17-1	0.1%		100.0%	3.5%	96.5%	1.1		0.1	0.0		0.0															100.0%
16-2	0.3%		100.0%	13.4%	86.6%	1.5		0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0															100.0%
15-3	1.0%		100.0%	8.2%	91.8%	2.1		0.4	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0													100.0%
14-4	2.1%		100.0%	12.8%	87.2%	2.8		0.2	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0												100.0%
13-5	3.6%		99.9%	7.9%	92.0%	3.7		0.1	0.5	1.3	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0							0.0		99.9%
12-6	5.8%		97.5%	5.6%	91.9%	4.9		0.1	0.3	0.8	1.3	1.5	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.1		97.4%
11-7	8.0%		92.5%	4.5%	88.0%	6.2			0.1	0.3	0.9	1.5	1.8	1.2	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0				0.6		92.2%
10-8	10.2%		78.8%	3.6%	75.2%	7.4			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.6	1.3	1.6	1.0	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0		2.2		78.0%
9-9	11.6%		54.1%	2.9%	51.2%	8.4				0.0	0.0	0.2	0.8	0.9	1.4	0.9	1.0	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.3		52.8%
8-10	11.8%		23.2%	2.0%	21.2%	9.2						0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.1		21.6%
7-11	12.1%		8.1%	1.8%	6.3%	10.2					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	11.1		6.5%
6-12	11.1%		1.9%	0.5%	1.4%	11.0								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.9		1.5%
5-13	9.0%		0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	12.8										0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.0		0.2%
4-14	6.4%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	6.4
3-15	3.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	3.8
2-16	2.0%																							2.0
1-17	0.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.7
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		38.6%	2.6%	36.0%	6.4		1.1	2.0	3.4	3.8	4.9	5.4	4.5	4.5	3.4	2.6	1.9	0.8	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	61.4		36.9%