IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.5	#157
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.8	#260
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.5	#212

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.0	#114

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.0%	8.7%	3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	1.6%	0.3%
Average Seed	23.0	12.6	13.8

.500 or above	50.8%	71.5%	42.7%
.500 or above in Conference	80.1%	80.1%	80.0%
Conference Champion	8.0%	12.3%	6.3%
Last Place in Conference	1.7%	0.7%	2.1%

First Four	0.8%	1.2%	0.6%
First Round	4.9%	8.1%	3.7%
Second Round	0.8%	1.5%	0.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 28.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 1.7	0.1 - 1.7
Quad 1b	0.4 - 2.0	0.5 - 3.7
Quad 2	1.7 - 4.3	2.1 - 8.0
Quad 3	4.6 - 4.5	6.7 - 12.6
Quad 4	7.8 - 1.9	14.5 - 14.5

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2018	109	@ Belmont	L	68-71	28%
Nov 16, 2018	232	Charleston Southern	W	69-64	76%
Nov 21, 2018	2	Virginia	L	49-67	5%
Nov 22, 2018	33	Butler	L	63-74	17%
Nov 23, 2018	108	Stanford	L	68-71	38%
Dec 01, 2018	136	Lipscomb	L	75-77	54%
Dec 05, 2018	83	@ Vanderbilt	L	65-70	23%
Dec 08, 2018	151	Murray St.	L	67-68	59%
Dec 15, 2018	126	@ Toledo	L	70-72	32%
Dec 21, 2018	118	Mississippi	L	70-73	40%
Dec 30, 2018	103	@ Rhode Island	L	66-70	28%
Jan 03, 2019	226	Florida International	W	70-66	73%
Jan 05, 2019	266	Florida Atlantic	W	71-65	79%
Jan 10, 2019	163	@ Southern Miss	W	68-67	42%
Jan 12, 2019	141	@ Louisiana Tech	L	68-69	36%
Jan 17, 2019	158	Texas San Antonio	W	73-72	60%
Jan 19, 2019	249	UTEP	W	69-63	76%
Jan 24, 2019	323	@ Rice	W	72-62	73%
Jan 26, 2019	132	@ North Texas	L	67-69	34%
Jan 30, 2019	187	UAB	W	69-67	65%
Feb 02, 2019	187	@ UAB	W	69-67	46%
Feb 07, 2019	301	Charlotte	W	76-68	83%
Feb 09, 2019	102	Old Dominion	L	61-65	48%
Feb 14, 2019	60	@ Western Kentucky	L	67-75	18%
Feb 16, 2019	99	@ Marshall	L	74-78	28%
Feb 23, 2019	301	Charlotte	W	76-68	83%
Mar 03, 2019	323	@ Rice	W	72-62	73%
Mar 06, 2019	249	@ UTEP	W	69-63	58%
Mar 09, 2019	249	UTEP	W	69-63	76%
Projected Record						14.5 - 14.5	10.5 - 7.5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.5	1.4		2.0	1st
2nd												0.1	1.1	3.5	4.1		8.7	2nd
3rd											0.0	1.1	4.3	5.1	1.6		12.2	3rd
4th										0.0	1.0	3.8	5.1	1.7	0.2		11.7	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.8	4.8	1.6	0.1			10.9	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.4	4.7	2.1	0.3				9.8	6th
7th								0.1	1.6	4.5	2.4	0.3					8.8	7th
8th							0.1	0.9	3.2	2.8	0.3	0.0					7.3	8th
9th						0.0	0.4	2.1	2.6	0.4	0.0						5.6	9th
10th					0.0	0.3	1.6	2.1	0.7	0.0							4.6	10th
11th				0.0	0.2	1.1	1.7	0.7	0.0								3.7	11th
12th			0.0	0.0	0.9	1.3	0.6	0.0									2.8	12th
13th		0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	0.5	0.0										1.9	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0											0.7	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	2.0	3.1	4.4	5.8	8.5	10.7	12.2	12.1	12.4	10.9	7.3			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
14-0	18.8%	1.4		0.3	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-1	4.9%	0.5		0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1
12-2	0.7%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0
11-3	0.0%
10-4	0.0%
9-5	0.0%
8-6	0.0%
7-7	0.0%

Total	2.0%	2.0		0.4	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
14-0	7.3%		10.6%	10.1%	0.5%	13.3												0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	6.5		0.5%
13-1	10.9%		7.4%	7.4%	0.0%	13.8											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	10.1		0.0%
12-2	12.4%		4.2%	4.2%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	11.9
11-3	12.1%		3.7%	3.7%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	11.7
10-4	12.2%		1.8%	1.8%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	12.0
9-5	10.7%		1.3%	1.3%		15.8																0.0	0.1	10.5
8-6	8.5%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																0.0	0.1	8.5
7-7	5.8%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																0.0	0.0	5.8
6-8	4.4%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	4.3
5-9	3.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	3.1
4-10	2.0%																							2.0
3-11	0.8%																							0.8
2-12	0.3%																							0.3
1-13	0.1%																							0.1
0-14	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		3.0%	3.0%	0.0%	14.4											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	97.0		0.0%