Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#311
Achievement Rating-9.3#297
Pace60.7#344
Improvement+3.8#38

Offense
Total Offense-9.6#343
First Shot-11.0#351
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#77
Layup/Dunks-2.9#280
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#328
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#232
Freethrows-3.4#336
Improvement+3.6#36

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#150
First Shot+0.3#163
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#131
Layups/Dunks+2.9#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#108
Freethrows-3.8#347
Improvement+0.3#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.2% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 21.8% 48.6% 13.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 0.1% 3.8%
First Four1.5% 2.1% 1.3%
First Round0.8% 1.2% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Away) - 24.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 315   Elon L 56-62 62%     0 - 1 -18.0 -18.8 +0.5
  Nov 12, 2018 213   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 52-75 22%     0 - 2 -23.6 -14.8 -10.0
  Nov 16, 2018 158   Coastal Carolina W 55-53 19%     1 - 2 +2.2 -12.5 +14.9
  Nov 17, 2018 105   @ Northern Kentucky L 53-59 7%     1 - 3 +1.2 -13.6 +14.4
  Nov 18, 2018 341   UNC Asheville W 54-38 68%     2 - 3 +2.2 -12.9 +19.1
  Nov 24, 2018 255   @ George Washington L 43-70 28%     2 - 4 -29.8 -27.1 -3.7
  Dec 01, 2018 236   Fordham L 56-57 43%     2 - 5 -8.2 -9.5 +1.1
  Dec 05, 2018 169   Stony Brook L 62-69 29%     2 - 6 -10.1 -4.0 -6.6
  Dec 10, 2018 74   Hofstra L 50-80 12%     2 - 7 -26.2 -20.2 -9.4
  Dec 15, 2018 85   @ Connecticut L 46-61 6%     2 - 8 -6.3 -22.9 +16.6
  Dec 20, 2018 292   @ Albany L 67-77 34%     2 - 9 -14.7 -4.3 -10.7
  Dec 23, 2018 269   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 56-72 30%     2 - 10 -19.4 -17.0 -2.2
  Jan 03, 2019 214   Quinnipiac L 59-63 39%     2 - 11 0 - 1 -10.1 -10.2 -0.4
  Jan 05, 2019 298   Niagara W 90-80 56%     3 - 11 1 - 1 -0.6 +13.3 -13.4
  Jan 08, 2019 244   @ Marist L 63-78 26%     3 - 12 1 - 2 -17.2 -7.6 -10.6
  Jan 12, 2019 260   @ Monmouth L 49-65 29%     3 - 13 1 - 3 -19.1 -16.8 -3.8
  Jan 17, 2019 307   @ St. Peter's W 58-56 39%     4 - 13 2 - 3 -3.9 -5.7 +2.1
  Jan 19, 2019 192   @ Rider L 47-60 18%     4 - 14 2 - 4 -12.2 -22.0 +9.0
  Jan 21, 2019 244   Marist L 46-62 45%     4 - 15 2 - 5 -23.6 -25.6 -0.1
  Jan 26, 2019 247   @ Siena L 40-53 26%     4 - 16 2 - 6 -15.3 -19.7 +0.1
  Jan 31, 2019 286   Fairfield W 62-49 53%     5 - 16 3 - 6 +3.3 -6.3 +11.2
  Feb 02, 2019 307   St. Peter's W 64-50 59%     6 - 16 4 - 6 +2.6 -4.3 +8.4
  Feb 05, 2019 192   Rider W 73-66 34%     7 - 16 5 - 6 +2.3 +0.8 +1.7
  Feb 08, 2019 247   Siena L 49-51 45%     7 - 17 5 - 7 -9.7 -17.7 +7.5
  Feb 15, 2019 298   @ Niagara W 64-60 36%     8 - 17 6 - 7 -1.1 -2.5 +2.1
  Feb 17, 2019 239   @ Canisius L 60-67 24%    
  Feb 22, 2019 215   Iona L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 24, 2019 286   @ Fairfield L 59-64 33%    
  Mar 01, 2019 260   Monmouth L 58-59 50%    
  Mar 03, 2019 214   @ Quinnipiac L 58-66 21%    
Projected Record 9.7 - 20.3 7.7 - 10.3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.8 0.1 0.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 2.3 1.5 3.8 5th
6th 1.9 8.3 0.3 10.4 6th
7th 0.1 4.2 16.5 5.3 0.0 26.0 7th
8th 3.5 22.3 13.9 0.6 40.3 8th
9th 7.7 5.4 0.2 13.3 9th
10th 2.5 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
Total 13.8 32.0 32.5 16.6 4.6 0.6 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 21.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.6% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 4.6% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.2 4.4
9-9 16.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.4 16.2
8-10 32.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.5 32.0
7-11 32.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.4 31.6
6-12 13.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.7
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 16.0 1.5 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 8.8%