Villanova
Big East
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#19
Achievement Rating+15.9#26
Pace61.5#338
Improvement+4.0#35

Offense
Total Offense+10.8#7
First Shot+7.3#18
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#9
Layup/Dunks-1.5#228
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.7#1
Freethrows+2.4#34
Improvement+2.0#85

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#62
First Shot+3.9#59
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#142
Layups/Dunks-1.5#246
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#34
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#125
Freethrows+1.9#58
Improvement+2.0#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 34.0% 41.4% 18.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Average Seed 5.1 4.8 5.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 72.7% 79.7% 58.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Second Round76.6% 78.9% 71.7%
Sweet Sixteen38.8% 41.6% 33.0%
Elite Eight14.6% 15.9% 11.9%
Final Four5.4% 6.0% 4.2%
Championship Game1.8% 2.1% 1.3%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.3%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 67.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 334   Morgan St. W 100-77 99%     1 - 0 +7.9 +14.8 -8.5
  Nov 10, 2018 211   Quinnipiac W 86-53 96%     2 - 0 +27.2 +15.5 +14.5
  Nov 14, 2018 8   Michigan L 46-73 51%     2 - 1 -12.3 -12.3 -2.5
  Nov 17, 2018 64   Furman L 68-76 84%     2 - 2 -3.4 -5.0 +2.1
  Nov 22, 2018 247   Canisius W 83-56 96%     3 - 2 +21.9 +7.4 +14.7
  Nov 23, 2018 86   Oklahoma St. W 77-58 81%     4 - 2 +24.9 +17.6 +10.0
  Nov 25, 2018 18   Florida St. W 66-60 48%     5 - 2 +21.4 +11.5 +10.8
  Dec 01, 2018 198   @ La Salle W 85-78 91%     6 - 2 +7.5 +22.3 -14.1
  Dec 05, 2018 70   Temple W 69-59 84%     7 - 2 +14.2 +9.7 +6.1
  Dec 08, 2018 182   Saint Joseph's W 70-58 95%     8 - 2 +7.9 -7.8 +15.4
  Dec 11, 2018 132   @ Penn L 75-78 82%     8 - 3 +2.3 +11.3 -9.3
  Dec 15, 2018 11   @ Kansas L 71-74 34%     8 - 4 +16.2 +12.8 +3.2
  Dec 22, 2018 83   Connecticut W 81-58 80%     9 - 4 +29.0 +8.7 +19.9
  Jan 02, 2019 98   DePaul W 73-68 88%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +7.3 +5.3 +2.4
  Jan 05, 2019 80   @ Providence W 65-59 72%     11 - 4 2 - 0 +15.0 +3.4 +12.0
  Jan 08, 2019 42   St. John's W 76-71 76%     12 - 4 3 - 0 +12.7 +10.4 +2.5
  Jan 13, 2019 51   @ Creighton W 90-78 61%     13 - 4 4 - 0 +24.0 +20.8 +3.2
  Jan 18, 2019 82   Xavier W 85-75 86%     14 - 4 5 - 0 +13.3 +18.6 -4.6
  Jan 22, 2019 46   @ Butler W 80-72 61%     15 - 4 6 - 0 +20.2 +23.1 -1.9
  Jan 27, 2019 50   Seton Hall W 80-52 79%     16 - 4 7 - 0 +34.5 +13.9 +21.7
  Jan 30, 2019 98   @ DePaul W 86-74 75%     17 - 4 8 - 0 +19.8 +25.1 -4.0
  Feb 03, 2019 68   Georgetown W 77-65 84%     18 - 4 9 - 0 +16.3 +4.4 +12.0
  Feb 06, 2019 51   Creighton W 66-59 79%     19 - 4 10 - 0 +13.5 +4.7 +9.8
  Feb 09, 2019 24   @ Marquette L 65-66 44%     19 - 5 10 - 1 +15.4 +8.0 +7.3
  Feb 13, 2019 80   Providence W 85-67 86%     20 - 5 11 - 1 +21.5 +22.5 +0.2
  Feb 17, 2019 42   @ St. John's L 65-71 57%     20 - 6 11 - 2 +7.3 -1.1 +8.4
  Feb 20, 2019 68   @ Georgetown W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 24, 2019 82   @ Xavier W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 27, 2019 24   Marquette W 75-71 66%    
  Mar 02, 2019 46   Butler W 74-66 79%    
  Mar 09, 2019 50   @ Seton Hall W 73-70 60%    
Projected Record 23.4 - 7.6 14.4 - 3.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 3.9 19.2 32.6 16.9 72.7 1st
2nd 0.4 3.7 10.7 10.8 1.7 27.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.5 3.9 14.6 30.0 34.2 16.9 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 16.9    16.9
15-3 95.1% 32.6    24.9 7.7
14-4 64.1% 19.2    9.6 9.6
13-5 26.6% 3.9    1.2 2.7
12-6 5.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8
9-9
Total 72.7% 72.7 52.7 20.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 16.9% 100.0% 41.3% 58.7% 3.4 0.3 4.2 5.0 4.1 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 34.2% 100.0% 38.4% 61.6% 4.7 0.3 4.9 10.1 10.5 6.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 30.0% 100.0% 33.5% 66.5% 5.6 0.0 0.6 3.9 8.8 10.2 5.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 14.6% 100.0% 29.7% 70.2% 6.4 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.2 4.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 3.9% 99.5% 26.1% 73.5% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
11-7 0.5% 92.0% 21.5% 70.6% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.9%
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 35.6% 64.3% 5.1 0.3 4.6 10.6 18.6 24.4 23.5 12.9 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.0% 100.0% 2.4 4.5 57.4 33.8 4.2 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.4% 100.0% 3.7 4.9 40.3 38.0 14.9 1.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.4% 100.0% 4.1 1.1 24.9 41.9 25.5 6.2 0.4
Lose Out 0.2% 78.1% 9.6 8.6 30.5 26.5 11.9 0.7