Villanova
Big East
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.1#21
Achievement Rating+10.3#63
Pace61.8#341
Improvement+1.0#98

Offense
Total Offense+9.5#12
First Shot+4.3#63
After Offensive Rebound+5.2#6
Layup/Dunks-3.4#281
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#259
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#14
Freethrows+2.4#60
Improvement+0.6#125

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#77
First Shot+3.4#68
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#163
Layups/Dunks-0.2#188
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#176
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#46
Freethrows-0.7#220
Improvement+0.4#145
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.2% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 27.3% 31.7% 15.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.0% 90.7% 80.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.5% 87.7% 76.0%
Average Seed 6.0 5.8 6.8
.500 or above 96.6% 98.3% 92.0%
.500 or above in Conference 88.8% 90.6% 83.9%
Conference Champion 34.3% 36.9% 26.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.8% 1.9%
First Four2.5% 2.0% 3.9%
First Round86.8% 89.8% 78.1%
Second Round57.9% 61.3% 48.2%
Sweet Sixteen27.3% 29.7% 20.3%
Elite Eight11.5% 12.9% 7.6%
Final Four4.6% 5.2% 3.1%
Championship Game1.8% 2.1% 1.1%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.4%

Next Game: Connecticut (Neutral) - 73.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 314   Morgan St. W 100-77 98%     1 - 0 +11.0 +15.5 -6.1
  Nov 10, 2018 242   Quinnipiac W 86-53 96%     2 - 0 +25.1 +19.3 +8.5
  Nov 14, 2018 8   Michigan L 46-73 45%     2 - 1 -12.5 -13.6 -1.4
  Nov 17, 2018 89   Furman L 68-76 83%     2 - 2 -5.0 -7.6 +3.1
  Nov 22, 2018 227   Canisius W 83-56 93%     3 - 2 +23.1 +10.7 +12.7
  Nov 23, 2018 73   Oklahoma St. W 77-58 72%     4 - 2 +26.0 +20.2 +8.5
  Nov 25, 2018 15   Florida St. W 66-60 46%     5 - 2 +20.2 +11.2 +10.0
  Dec 01, 2018 260   @ La Salle W 85-78 92%     6 - 2 +4.4 +18.0 -12.8
  Dec 05, 2018 78   Temple W 69-59 81%     7 - 2 +13.8 +10.5 +4.9
  Dec 08, 2018 103   Saint Joseph's W 70-58 85%     8 - 2 +13.9 -5.9 +19.5
  Dec 11, 2018 94   @ Penn L 75-78 67%     8 - 3 +5.6 +12.4 -7.0
  Dec 15, 2018 5   @ Kansas L 71-74 22%     8 - 4 +18.2 +11.9 +6.1
  Dec 22, 2018 84   Connecticut W 78-71 74%    
  Jan 02, 2019 97   DePaul W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 05, 2019 77   @ Providence W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 08, 2019 45   St. John's W 79-73 72%    
  Jan 13, 2019 41   @ Creighton L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 18, 2019 57   Xavier W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 22, 2019 37   @ Butler L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 27, 2019 56   Seton Hall W 75-68 76%    
  Jan 30, 2019 97   @ DePaul W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 03, 2019 104   Georgetown W 82-71 85%    
  Feb 06, 2019 41   Creighton W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 09, 2019 32   @ Marquette L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 13, 2019 77   Providence W 74-65 81%    
  Feb 17, 2019 45   @ St. John's W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 20, 2019 104   @ Georgetown W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 24, 2019 57   @ Xavier W 72-71 56%    
  Feb 27, 2019 32   Marquette W 74-70 65%    
  Mar 02, 2019 37   Butler W 71-66 66%    
  Mar 09, 2019 56   @ Seton Hall W 72-71 56%    
Projected Record 20.4 - 10.6 11.7 - 6.3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 3.4 7.4 9.8 7.4 4.0 1.3 0.3 34.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.3 7.6 5.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.3 6.4 3.6 0.8 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 5.3 2.7 0.4 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.8 2.5 0.3 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.3 1.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.2 5.4 8.3 11.9 14.3 14.9 13.7 12.2 7.9 4.0 1.3 0.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3
16-2 99.0% 4.0    3.9 0.1
15-3 94.3% 7.4    6.4 1.0 0.0
14-4 80.2% 9.8    6.9 2.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 54.2% 7.4    3.5 3.2 0.8 0.0
12-6 22.7% 3.4    0.9 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-7 4.2% 0.6    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.3% 34.3 23.3 8.6 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 47.1% 52.9% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.3% 100.0% 38.1% 61.9% 2.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 100.0%
16-2 4.0% 99.8% 43.2% 56.6% 2.6 0.3 1.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-3 7.9% 100.0% 36.5% 63.5% 3.4 0.1 1.3 3.2 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 100.0%
14-4 12.2% 99.7% 30.8% 68.9% 4.2 0.3 3.0 4.8 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.5%
13-5 13.7% 99.1% 29.9% 69.1% 5.1 0.0 1.0 3.8 4.1 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 98.6%
12-6 14.9% 97.7% 24.3% 73.5% 6.1 0.1 1.5 3.3 4.4 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.0%
11-7 14.3% 95.1% 17.1% 78.0% 7.2 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.9 3.7 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.7 94.1%
10-8 11.9% 89.7% 15.2% 74.5% 8.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 2.9 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 1.2 87.9%
9-9 8.3% 79.1% 13.4% 65.7% 9.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 75.9%
8-10 5.4% 48.8% 7.5% 41.3% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.7 44.6%
7-11 3.2% 19.2% 5.3% 13.9% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 2.6 14.7%
6-12 1.6% 6.3% 5.0% 1.3% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5 1.3%
5-13 0.6% 3.2% 3.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 88.0% 22.8% 65.2% 6.0 1.0 4.0 9.2 13.1 12.3 12.5 11.6 9.1 7.2 4.0 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 12.0 84.5%