Nevada
Mountain West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.7#10
Achievement Rating+24.5#4
Pace72.1#123
Improvement-1.5#283

Offense
Total Offense+12.3#4
First Shot+11.0#3
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#91
Layup/Dunks+3.6#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#268
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#85
Freethrows+6.2#4
Improvement-1.9#314

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#41
First Shot+3.1#75
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#38
Layups/Dunks+4.8#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#317
Freethrows+2.6#50
Improvement+0.4#144
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 11.5% 12.2% 3.8%
Top 4 Seed 60.0% 62.2% 37.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.0% 98.3% 95.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.2% 94.9% 88.1%
Average Seed 4.2 4.1 5.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 83.7% 84.2% 78.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 1.5%
First Round97.8% 98.1% 94.6%
Second Round82.9% 83.8% 72.6%
Sweet Sixteen54.0% 55.2% 41.8%
Elite Eight31.0% 31.9% 21.6%
Final Four16.6% 17.1% 10.7%
Championship Game8.5% 8.8% 5.1%
National Champion4.2% 4.4% 2.3%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Home) - 91.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 65   BYU W 86-70 89%     1 - 0 +20.4 +4.2 +14.3
  Nov 09, 2018 161   Pacific W 83-61 96%     2 - 0 +19.0 +11.8 +8.2
  Nov 16, 2018 238   Arkansas Little Rock W 87-59 98%     3 - 0 +20.2 +4.7 +13.4
  Nov 19, 2018 236   California Baptist W 90-55 98%     4 - 0 +27.4 +7.2 +18.3
  Nov 22, 2018 120   Tulsa W 96-86 90%     5 - 0 +13.7 +24.3 -10.7
  Nov 23, 2018 139   Massachusetts W 110-87 92%     6 - 0 +24.9 +37.8 -12.6
  Nov 27, 2018 96   @ Loyola Chicago W 79-65 81%     7 - 0 +22.4 +20.0 +3.5
  Dec 01, 2018 94   @ USC W 73-61 81%     8 - 0 +20.6 +3.9 +16.6
  Dec 07, 2018 37   Arizona St. W 72-66 72%     9 - 0 +17.6 +1.5 +15.9
  Dec 09, 2018 117   Grand Canyon W 74-66 89%     10 - 0 +12.0 +3.9 +8.0
  Dec 15, 2018 82   South Dakota St. W 89-75 91%    
  Dec 22, 2018 132   Akron W 82-64 95%    
  Dec 29, 2018 134   @ Utah W 81-69 87%    
  Jan 02, 2019 50   Utah St. W 85-74 85%    
  Jan 05, 2019 146   @ New Mexico W 93-79 90%    
  Jan 09, 2019 325   San Jose St. W 89-58 99.8%   
  Jan 12, 2019 61   @ Fresno St. W 80-73 73%    
  Jan 15, 2019 128   @ Boise St. W 82-70 86%    
  Jan 19, 2019 243   Air Force W 86-60 99%    
  Jan 23, 2019 208   Colorado St. W 92-68 98%    
  Jan 29, 2019 136   @ UNLV W 83-71 87%    
  Feb 02, 2019 128   Boise St. W 85-67 94%    
  Feb 06, 2019 208   @ Colorado St. W 89-71 94%    
  Feb 09, 2019 146   New Mexico W 96-76 96%    
  Feb 16, 2019 221   @ Wyoming W 89-71 95%    
  Feb 20, 2019 69   @ San Diego St. W 83-75 75%    
  Feb 23, 2019 61   Fresno St. W 83-70 87%    
  Feb 27, 2019 136   UNLV W 86-68 95%    
  Mar 02, 2019 50   @ Utah St. W 82-77 68%    
  Mar 05, 2019 243   @ Air Force W 83-63 96%    
  Mar 09, 2019 69   San Diego St. W 86-72 89%    
Projected Record 28.8 - 2.2 16.1 - 1.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.3 11.9 23.3 27.6 17.3 83.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.5 4.1 1.3 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.1 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.7 8.6 16.0 24.7 27.6 17.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 17.3    17.3
17-1 100.0% 27.6    26.9 0.7
16-2 94.7% 23.3    19.7 3.6 0.0
15-3 74.1% 11.9    7.0 4.4 0.4 0.0
14-4 38.3% 3.3    1.1 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.7% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 83.7% 83.7 72.1 10.3 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 17.3% 99.6% 78.2% 21.4% 1.7 8.1 6.5 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.3%
17-1 27.6% 99.4% 72.4% 27.0% 2.8 3.3 10.0 7.9 3.6 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.9%
16-2 24.7% 99.0% 65.5% 33.4% 4.4 0.1 2.2 6.0 6.2 4.5 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 97.0%
15-3 16.0% 98.0% 58.6% 39.4% 6.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 3.2 3.2 2.7 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 95.1%
14-4 8.6% 95.5% 50.9% 44.6% 7.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 90.8%
13-5 3.7% 91.2% 44.1% 47.1% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 84.3%
12-6 1.5% 82.5% 35.2% 47.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 73.0%
11-7 0.6% 74.5% 28.5% 46.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 64.3%
10-8 0.2% 70.9% 25.9% 44.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.7%
9-9 0.1% 51.7% 27.6% 24.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.3%
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.0% 65.7% 32.3% 4.2 11.5 18.7 16.9 13.0 10.4 8.2 7.2 5.6 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 94.2%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.3% 100.0% 1.5 56.5 35.1 7.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6% 99.0% 2.0 32.5 44.6 16.9 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 98.2% 2.1 26.7 43.3 21.1 4.6 2.0 0.5 0.1