Nevada
Mountain West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.1#13
Achievement Rating+23.5#6
Pace72.4#90
Improvement-0.7#218

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#15
First Shot+8.0#12
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#98
Layup/Dunks+3.8#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#292
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#94
Freethrows+4.1#5
Improvement-1.9#270

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#23
First Shot+5.4#38
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#27
Layups/Dunks+3.7#45
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#146
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#251
Freethrows+2.9#17
Improvement+1.2#111
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 54.1% 59.8% 30.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 99.9%
Average Seed 4.4 4.2 5.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 97.6% 99.1% 91.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round82.7% 84.1% 76.9%
Sweet Sixteen48.1% 50.1% 40.0%
Elite Eight19.6% 20.7% 15.0%
Final Four8.1% 8.7% 5.9%
Championship Game3.0% 3.2% 2.0%
National Champion1.0% 1.0% 0.7%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 80.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 73   BYU W 86-70 87%     1 - 0 +19.9 +2.6 +15.5
  Nov 09, 2018 187   Pacific W 83-61 96%     2 - 0 +17.6 +12.7 +6.1
  Nov 16, 2018 206   Arkansas Little Rock W 87-59 97%     3 - 0 +22.6 +5.5 +14.9
  Nov 19, 2018 217   California Baptist W 90-55 97%     4 - 0 +29.0 +6.7 +20.4
  Nov 22, 2018 96   Tulsa W 96-86 85%     5 - 0 +15.1 +26.2 -11.2
  Nov 23, 2018 190   Massachusetts W 110-87 94%     6 - 0 +21.1 +37.2 -15.8
  Nov 27, 2018 116   @ Loyola Chicago W 79-65 81%     7 - 0 +20.7 +17.0 +4.7
  Dec 01, 2018 78   @ USC W 73-61 75%     8 - 0 +21.0 +4.3 +16.7
  Dec 07, 2018 54   Arizona St. W 72-66 76%     9 - 0 +14.8 +0.1 +14.4
  Dec 09, 2018 102   Grand Canyon W 74-66 85%     10 - 0 +12.8 +3.2 +9.6
  Dec 15, 2018 77   South Dakota St. W 72-68 88%     11 - 0 +7.6 -1.4 +9.0
  Dec 22, 2018 126   Akron W 68-62 92%     12 - 0 +6.5 +5.9 +1.0
  Dec 29, 2018 95   @ Utah W 86-71 78%     13 - 0 +22.9 +18.1 +5.8
  Jan 02, 2019 49   Utah St. W 72-49 82%     14 - 0 1 - 0 +29.6 -3.1 +31.1
  Jan 05, 2019 155   @ New Mexico L 58-85 88%     14 - 1 1 - 1 -23.7 -15.1 -7.7
  Jan 09, 2019 338   San Jose St. W 92-53 99%     15 - 1 2 - 1 +23.1 +8.8 +12.2
  Jan 12, 2019 59   @ Fresno St. W 74-64 70%     16 - 1 3 - 1 +20.7 +13.0 +8.5
  Jan 15, 2019 125   @ Boise St. W 72-71 83%     17 - 1 4 - 1 +7.0 +1.0 +6.0
  Jan 19, 2019 239   Air Force W 67-52 97%     18 - 1 5 - 1 +7.6 -10.7 +17.9
  Jan 23, 2019 178   Colorado St. W 100-60 96%     19 - 1 6 - 1 +36.1 +15.6 +17.8
  Jan 29, 2019 151   @ UNLV W 87-70 88%     20 - 1 7 - 1 +20.5 +7.9 +11.5
  Feb 02, 2019 125   Boise St. W 93-73 92%     21 - 1 8 - 1 +20.5 +20.3 +0.3
  Feb 06, 2019 178   @ Colorado St. W 98-82 91%     22 - 1 9 - 1 +17.6 +23.0 -5.4
  Feb 09, 2019 155   New Mexico W 91-62 95%     23 - 1 10 - 1 +26.8 +1.0 +20.7
  Feb 16, 2019 298   @ Wyoming W 82-49 96%     24 - 1 11 - 1 +27.9 +9.6 +18.9
  Feb 20, 2019 115   @ San Diego St. W 78-69 81%    
  Feb 23, 2019 59   Fresno St. W 79-68 85%    
  Feb 27, 2019 151   UNLV W 86-68 96%    
  Mar 02, 2019 49   @ Utah St. W 77-73 64%    
  Mar 05, 2019 239   @ Air Force W 80-62 95%    
  Mar 09, 2019 115   San Diego St. W 81-66 92%    
Projected Record 29.1 - 1.9 16.1 - 1.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.8 16.8 40.5 38.5 97.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.5 3.7 16.8 40.5 38.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 38.5    38.5
16-2 100.0% 40.5    40.5
15-3 100.0% 16.8    10.1 6.1 0.7
14-4 48.5% 1.8    0.2 0.9 0.7
13-5 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 97.6% 97.6 89.2 7.0 1.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 38.5% 100.0% 71.1% 28.9% 3.4 0.6 7.8 13.8 10.4 4.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 40.5% 100.0% 66.5% 33.5% 4.7 0.4 5.1 12.6 12.4 7.2 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-3 16.8% 100.0% 59.5% 40.4% 5.6 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.8 5.1 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 3.7% 99.8% 52.9% 46.9% 6.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-5 0.5% 99.4% 48.6% 50.8% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
12-6 0.0% 100.0% 41.7% 58.3% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 66.5% 33.5% 4.4 0.6 8.2 19.3 26.0 22.3 14.9 6.3 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 27.3% 100.0% 3.1 2.2 26.3 40.1 23.8 6.5 1.1 0.1 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.3% 100.0% 4.0 0.0 5.8 26.7 35.3 22.6 8.0 1.5 0.1 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5% 100.0% 4.2 0.0 4.4 24.3 34.2 25.2 9.3 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0