Duke
Atlantic Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+23.1#1
Achievement Rating+23.4#7
Pace80.2#21
Improvement-0.3#206

Offense
Total Offense+13.8#2
First Shot+7.8#16
After Offensive Rebound+6.0#2
Layup/Dunks+10.2#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#290
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#226
Freethrows+1.5#102
Improvement-1.9#311

Defense
Total Defense+9.3#5
First Shot+11.6#1
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#312
Layups/Dunks+1.6#117
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#45
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#60
Freethrows+4.0#13
Improvement+1.6#64
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 76.0% 76.1% 61.1%
Top 4 Seed 98.8% 98.8% 97.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 99.9% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.4 1.4 1.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.8% 100.0%
Conference Champion 58.4% 58.4% 55.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
Second Round98.2% 98.3% 94.4%
Sweet Sixteen84.0% 84.0% 75.0%
Elite Eight66.2% 66.3% 50.0%
Final Four49.1% 49.1% 38.9%
Championship Game35.3% 35.3% 25.0%
National Champion24.5% 24.6% 19.4%

Next Game: Princeton (Home) - 99.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 17   Kentucky W 118-84 81%     1 - 0 +47.9 +32.4 +10.8
  Nov 11, 2018 270   Army W 94-72 99%     2 - 0 +12.8 +10.4 +0.6
  Nov 14, 2018 183   Eastern Michigan W 84-46 99%     3 - 0 +33.6 +5.2 +26.8
  Nov 19, 2018 74   San Diego St. W 90-64 93%     4 - 0 +33.0 +15.3 +16.8
  Nov 20, 2018 11   Auburn W 78-72 73%     5 - 0 +22.8 +10.9 +11.8
  Nov 21, 2018 3   Gonzaga L 87-89 68%     5 - 1 +16.3 +16.0 +0.4
  Nov 27, 2018 22   Indiana W 90-69 88%     6 - 1 +31.1 +12.7 +16.0
  Dec 01, 2018 338   Stetson W 113-49 99.8%    7 - 1 +48.1 +14.7 +23.8
  Dec 05, 2018 202   Hartford W 84-54 99%     8 - 1 +24.6 +4.5 +19.0
  Dec 08, 2018 102   Yale W 91-58 96%     9 - 1 +35.0 +5.0 +24.8
  Dec 18, 2018 181   Princeton W 90-63 99.6%   
  Dec 20, 2018 12   Texas Tech W 78-70 76%    
  Jan 05, 2019 52   Clemson W 86-69 94%    
  Jan 08, 2019 158   @ Wake Forest W 90-70 97%    
  Jan 12, 2019 15   @ Florida St. W 86-80 70%    
  Jan 14, 2019 40   Syracuse W 82-67 92%    
  Jan 19, 2019 6   Virginia W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 22, 2019 115   @ Pittsburgh W 85-69 93%    
  Jan 26, 2019 80   Georgia Tech W 83-64 96%    
  Jan 28, 2019 48   @ Notre Dame W 83-73 82%    
  Feb 02, 2019 45   St. John's W 94-78 93%    
  Feb 05, 2019 105   Boston College W 92-71 97%    
  Feb 09, 2019 6   @ Virginia W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 12, 2019 34   @ Louisville W 84-76 77%    
  Feb 16, 2019 20   North Carolina St. W 95-82 88%    
  Feb 20, 2019 2   North Carolina W 97-90 75%    
  Feb 23, 2019 40   @ Syracuse W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 26, 2019 9   @ Virginia Tech W 81-78 60%    
  Mar 02, 2019 46   Miami (FL) W 88-72 93%    
  Mar 05, 2019 158   Wake Forest W 93-67 99%    
  Mar 09, 2019 2   @ North Carolina W 94-93 55%    
Projected Record 26.5 - 4.5 14.8 - 3.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.8 5.4 14.2 19.2 13.2 5.6 58.4 1st
2nd 0.5 3.9 8.2 6.2 1.4 0.1 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.7 3.1 0.4 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.7 1.7 0.3 5.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 3.2 6.4 11.3 17.0 20.8 20.6 13.3 5.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 5.6    5.6
17-1 99.5% 13.2    12.7 0.5
16-2 93.3% 19.2    15.5 3.6 0.1
15-3 68.4% 14.2    7.5 5.5 1.0 0.1
14-4 31.7% 5.4    1.5 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 6.8% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 58.4% 58.4 42.9 12.0 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 5.6% 100.0% 64.0% 36.0% 1.0 5.6 100.0%
17-1 13.3% 100.0% 58.2% 41.8% 1.0 13.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 20.6% 100.0% 50.9% 49.1% 1.0 20.3 0.3 100.0%
15-3 20.8% 100.0% 43.6% 56.4% 1.1 19.1 1.7 0.0 100.0%
14-4 17.0% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 1.3 12.2 4.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.3% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 1.7 4.7 5.6 0.9 0.2 100.0%
12-6 6.4% 100.0% 22.8% 77.2% 2.2 0.9 3.4 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 3.2% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 3.0 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 1.1% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 3.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.6% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 42.7% 57.3% 1.4 76.0 16.9 4.3 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 1.0 100.0