Duke
Atlantic Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+24.6#1
Achievement Rating+29.4#1
Pace80.0#16
Improvement-3.0#296

Offense
Total Offense+14.2#2
First Shot+9.1#5
After Offensive Rebound+5.1#2
Layup/Dunks+9.6#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#223
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#243
Freethrows+2.1#49
Improvement-1.7#259

Defense
Total Defense+10.4#4
First Shot+11.5#2
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#279
Layups/Dunks+0.6#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#106
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#17
Freethrows+5.1#2
Improvement-1.4#259
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 99.1% 99.6% 97.3%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.0 1.0 1.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 81.7% 90.5% 51.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.6% 99.6% 99.5%
Sweet Sixteen89.3% 89.7% 87.8%
Elite Eight74.4% 75.1% 71.9%
Final Four56.3% 57.3% 52.7%
Championship Game39.4% 40.4% 35.8%
National Champion26.3% 27.3% 23.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Home) - 77.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 5   Kentucky W 118-84 68%     1 - 0 +54.0 +38.5 +10.7
  Nov 11, 2018 246   Army W 94-72 99%     2 - 0 +14.2 +12.4 +0.0
  Nov 14, 2018 149   Eastern Michigan W 84-46 98%     3 - 0 +36.4 +7.5 +27.4
  Nov 19, 2018 115   San Diego St. W 90-64 96%     4 - 0 +30.0 +15.7 +13.4
  Nov 20, 2018 14   Auburn W 78-72 80%     5 - 0 +21.6 +10.5 +11.1
  Nov 21, 2018 2   Gonzaga L 87-89 52%     5 - 1 +22.1 +19.8 +2.3
  Nov 27, 2018 45   Indiana W 90-69 94%     6 - 1 +27.8 +11.5 +13.9
  Dec 01, 2018 335   Stetson W 113-49 99.8%    7 - 1 +48.9 +15.0 +24.3
  Dec 05, 2018 188   Hartford W 84-54 99%     8 - 1 +25.5 +2.9 +21.5
  Dec 08, 2018 88   Yale W 91-58 97%     9 - 1 +36.1 +5.5 +25.4
  Dec 18, 2018 164   Princeton W 101-50 99%     10 - 1 +48.1 +22.9 +21.8
  Dec 20, 2018 9   Texas Tech W 69-58 77%     11 - 1 +27.9 -0.7 +27.1
  Jan 05, 2019 30   Clemson W 87-68 91%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +28.6 +12.6 +14.1
  Jan 08, 2019 176   @ Wake Forest W 87-65 97%     13 - 1 2 - 0 +24.1 +9.6 +13.2
  Jan 12, 2019 18   @ Florida St. W 80-78 73%     14 - 1 3 - 0 +20.2 +14.3 +5.7
  Jan 14, 2019 40   Syracuse L 91-95 93%     14 - 2 3 - 1 +4.2 +3.6 +1.5
  Jan 19, 2019 3   Virginia W 72-70 70%     15 - 2 4 - 1 +21.2 +17.8 +3.6
  Jan 22, 2019 91   @ Pittsburgh W 79-64 93%     16 - 2 5 - 1 +23.2 +13.8 +9.8
  Jan 26, 2019 108   Georgia Tech W 66-53 97%     17 - 2 6 - 1 +14.6 +0.0 +14.7
  Jan 28, 2019 65   @ Notre Dame W 83-61 91%     18 - 2 7 - 1 +32.0 +25.3 +9.6
  Feb 02, 2019 42   St. John's W 91-61 93%     19 - 2 +37.7 +14.1 +21.0
  Feb 05, 2019 97   Boston College W 80-55 97%     20 - 2 8 - 1 +27.3 +9.4 +18.4
  Feb 09, 2019 3   @ Virginia W 81-71 50%     21 - 2 9 - 1 +34.7 +30.3 +5.6
  Feb 12, 2019 16   @ Louisville W 71-69 73%     22 - 2 10 - 1 +20.2 +4.1 +16.0
  Feb 16, 2019 32   North Carolina St. W 94-78 92%     23 - 2 11 - 1 +25.1 +15.4 +8.1
  Feb 20, 2019 6   North Carolina W 94-86 77%    
  Feb 23, 2019 40   @ Syracuse W 79-68 84%    
  Feb 26, 2019 17   @ Virginia Tech W 79-73 72%    
  Mar 02, 2019 60   Miami (FL) W 87-67 97%    
  Mar 05, 2019 176   Wake Forest W 92-64 99.6%   
  Mar 09, 2019 6   @ North Carolina W 91-89 57%    
Projected Record 27.9 - 3.1 15.9 - 2.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 12.9 40.2 28.0 81.7 1st
2nd 0.1 2.9 9.8 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.6 1.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.9 7.0 23.8 40.2 28.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 28.0    28.0
16-2 100.0% 40.2    24.7 15.5
15-3 54.5% 12.9    2.5 6.9 3.5
14-4 7.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 81.7% 81.7 55.2 22.6 3.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 28.0% 100.0% 52.3% 47.7% 1.0 28.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 40.2% 100.0% 47.3% 52.7% 1.0 40.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 23.8% 100.0% 40.6% 59.4% 1.0 23.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.0% 100.0% 35.3% 64.7% 1.1 6.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.9% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.0% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 46.1% 53.9% 1.0 99.1 0.9 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.6% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.3% 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.5% 100.0% 1.0 100.0