Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#235
Achievement Rating-5.0#239
Pace63.0#322
Improvement+1.3#122

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#202
First Shot+2.1#121
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#347
Layup/Dunks-2.7#281
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#92
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#50
Freethrows-0.8#237
Improvement+2.3#68

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#268
First Shot-3.4#277
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#199
Layups/Dunks+3.3#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#329
Freethrows-1.6#275
Improvement-1.0#240
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.7% 9.4% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 34.0% 40.8% 13.1%
.500 or above in Conference 74.8% 85.2% 42.8%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four4.9% 4.9% 4.9%
First Round6.4% 7.1% 4.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Home) - 75.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 246   @ Army L 69-73 42%     0 - 1 -6.3 +2.5 -9.0
  Nov 10, 2018 237   Columbia W 82-76 61%     1 - 1 -1.3 +5.2 -6.7
  Nov 13, 2018 158   @ Lehigh L 72-78 24%     1 - 2 -2.9 -2.6 -0.3
  Nov 20, 2018 274   @ Stephen F. Austin L 60-64 47%     1 - 3 -7.7 -8.4 +0.4
  Nov 24, 2018 28   @ Buffalo L 49-76 4%     1 - 4 -11.3 -12.7 -0.8
  Nov 29, 2018 203   Dartmouth W 76-58 42%     2 - 4 +15.5 +4.6 +12.2
  Nov 30, 2018 270   LIU Brooklyn W 70-53 57%     3 - 4 +10.7 -3.5 +14.9
  Dec 08, 2018 335   @ Stetson W 79-75 69%     4 - 4 -5.6 +1.3 -6.8
  Dec 15, 2018 153   @ Colgate L 66-82 23%     4 - 5 -12.7 -8.7 -3.6
  Dec 19, 2018 347   @ New Hampshire W 58-49 78%     5 - 5 -3.5 -8.1 +5.9
  Dec 22, 2018 154   Brown L 53-78 41%     5 - 6 -27.2 -18.0 -9.0
  Dec 29, 2018 188   @ Hartford L 56-65 30%     5 - 7 -8.0 -14.7 +6.0
  Jan 03, 2019 247   Canisius L 72-75 63%     5 - 8 0 - 1 -10.9 -3.3 -7.7
  Jan 08, 2019 308   Manhattan W 78-63 74%     6 - 8 1 - 1 +3.8 +9.7 -4.9
  Jan 11, 2019 251   Siena L 66-71 64%     6 - 9 1 - 2 -13.1 -5.6 -7.9
  Jan 13, 2019 310   @ St. Peter's L 63-72 56%     6 - 10 1 - 3 -15.0 -5.3 -10.3
  Jan 18, 2019 222   @ Iona L 77-90 36%     6 - 11 1 - 4 -13.7 +3.4 -17.4
  Jan 21, 2019 308   @ Manhattan W 62-46 55%     7 - 11 2 - 4 +10.3 -0.8 +13.2
  Jan 25, 2019 211   Quinnipiac L 78-92 55%     7 - 12 2 - 5 -19.8 +4.4 -24.9
  Jan 27, 2019 195   @ Rider L 85-86 31%     7 - 13 2 - 6 -0.3 +11.2 -11.5
  Jan 31, 2019 222   Iona W 78-74 57%     8 - 13 3 - 6 -2.3 -1.2 -1.2
  Feb 02, 2019 286   Fairfield L 52-57 70%     8 - 14 3 - 7 -14.8 -21.0 +5.9
  Feb 04, 2019 247   @ Canisius W 78-71 42%     9 - 14 4 - 7 +4.7 +5.2 -0.3
  Feb 08, 2019 299   Niagara W 79-58 72%     10 - 14 5 - 7 +10.4 +12.3 +1.9
  Feb 15, 2019 211   @ Quinnipiac W 63-61 34%     11 - 14 6 - 7 +1.7 -0.5 +2.6
  Feb 17, 2019 271   @ Monmouth W 75-67 46%     12 - 14 7 - 7 +4.5 +11.0 -5.8
  Feb 22, 2019 310   St. Peter's W 66-59 75%    
  Feb 24, 2019 251   @ Siena L 61-63 42%    
  Mar 01, 2019 286   @ Fairfield L 68-69 48%    
  Mar 03, 2019 195   Rider W 74-73 52%    
Projected Record 14.2 - 15.8 9.2 - 8.8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.8 1.8 1st
2nd 0.7 4.8 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 6.1 2.3 8.4 3rd
4th 0.5 12.5 0.1 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 4.9 8.5 13.4 5th
6th 0.6 15.9 1.6 18.0 6th
7th 0.4 11.3 14.1 0.0 25.8 7th
8th 2.8 8.8 1.1 12.6 8th
9th 1.2 0.2 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 4.4 20.8 36.4 29.4 9.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 19.9% 1.8    0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 9.0% 17.8% 17.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 7.4
10-8 29.4% 10.8% 10.8% 15.9 0.2 3.0 26.2
9-9 36.4% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.1 2.6 33.7
8-10 20.8% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1 19.7
7-11 4.4% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.2 4.2
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.8 7.9 91.3 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 15.7 0.1 0.5 31.6 67.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.4%
Lose Out 2.0%