Pac-12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
11 Arizona 92.3%   7   13 - 6 3 - 3 22 - 9 12 - 6 +15.0      +8.2 12 +6.8 29 71.0 127 +10.5 41 +8.8 5
17 Oregon 99.8%   4   17 - 4 6 - 2 24 - 7 13 - 5 +14.0      +8.9 9 +5.1 62 62.8 327 +16.4 15 +14.9 1
20 Colorado 98.0%   6   16 - 4 5 - 2 24 - 7 13 - 5 +13.3      +5.1 48 +8.2 15 69.4 175 +14.7 18 +13.2 3
48 Stanford 49.5%   11   15 - 4 4 - 2 21 - 10 10 - 8 +10.0      +1.6 132 +8.5 9 69.7 162 +10.6 40 +8.3 6
50 Washington 24.7%   12 - 9 2 - 6 18 - 13 8 - 10 +9.9      +2.4 113 +7.5 22 69.3 177 +6.2 87 +0.5 12
56 USC 71.2%   10   16 - 4 5 - 2 22 - 9 11 - 7 +9.4      +3.4 80 +6.0 39 73.1 82 +13.4 26 +13.6 2
65 Arizona St. 26.8%   12 - 7 3 - 3 19 - 12 10 - 8 +7.9      +1.7 128 +6.2 34 77.8 23 +9.8 49 +11.4 4
94 Oregon St. 2.1%   12 - 8 2 - 6 16 - 14 6 - 12 +5.6      +5.9 39 -0.3 174 65.2 285 +4.5 106 +1.4 11
109 Utah 5.3%   12 - 7 3 - 4 16 - 14 7 - 11 +4.3      +4.8 51 -0.5 177 68.0 224 +9.1 62 +7.3 8
116 UCLA 0.4%   9 - 10 3 - 4 12 - 18 6 - 12 +3.2      +3.1 88 +0.1 158 64.8 294 +2.2 135 +5.9 9
128 Washington St. 0.2%   12 - 9 3 - 5 15 - 16 6 - 12 +2.2      +0.6 165 +1.6 126 74.6 59 +2.4 131 +4.1 10
168 California 0.0%   9 - 10 3 - 3 12 - 19 6 - 12 -0.3      -2.1 238 +1.8 121 63.6 317 +3.1 122 +7.6 7






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Arizona 2.7 26.2 26.1 21.5 14.0 7.3 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon 1.9 49.7 25.0 14.3 7.0 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1
Colorado 2.3 38.4 25.4 18.0 10.1 5.8 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stanford 4.5 8.2 10.6 13.7 18.5 20.0 14.6 7.2 3.9 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.1
Washington 7.1 0.1 0.4 2.0 5.9 10.5 18.7 22.7 17.0 11.0 6.3 3.9 1.7
USC 3.8 10.6 15.4 18.4 21.5 17.0 10.1 4.4 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
Arizona St. 5.4 2.7 5.8 9.8 16.8 19.0 19.6 12.0 6.9 3.8 2.0 1.2 0.5
Oregon St. 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 4.5 9.0 14.2 19.3 18.5 16.8 14.5
Utah 7.7 0.1 0.6 1.6 4.2 7.7 13.7 20.1 18.6 13.1 9.9 6.7 4.0
UCLA 8.8 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.6 8.1 13.6 15.1 18.0 16.9 14.6 8.0
Washington St. 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 4.6 8.9 12.9 17.5 20.0 19.5 14.2
California 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 3.0 6.9 11.3 15.3 17.6 20.0 24.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arizona 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.6 9.5 17.3 23.5 22.6 16.6 5.1
Oregon 13 - 5 0.2 0.8 3.4 9.2 18.4 26.5 24.5 13.5 3.5
Colorado 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 6.5 13.8 20.6 24.6 19.5 9.8 2.4
Stanford 10 - 8 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.3 10.0 15.8 19.7 19.4 15.1 8.6 3.5 0.9 0.1
Washington 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.4 12.4 20.8 24.0 20.0 11.5 3.5 0.6
USC 11 - 7 0.0 0.3 1.5 5.4 12.1 19.0 22.0 19.8 12.6 5.4 1.7 0.1
Arizona St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.9 9.0 14.8 19.2 19.5 16.7 9.8 4.2 1.3 0.2
Oregon St. 6 - 12 0.5 4.6 12.3 21.6 25.7 19.5 9.7 4.5 1.3 0.2
Utah 7 - 11 0.4 3.7 9.0 17.3 22.0 21.4 14.4 7.7 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
UCLA 6 - 12 2.2 9.2 18.6 23.6 20.6 14.8 7.8 2.6 0.7 0.1
Washington St. 6 - 12 3.6 13.4 24.3 26.4 18.0 9.7 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.1
California 6 - 12 7.5 19.0 25.3 23.2 14.6 6.8 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona 26.2% 11.5 10.2 3.8 0.7 0.0 0.0
Oregon 49.7% 30.1 14.1 4.8 0.6 0.0 0.0
Colorado 38.4% 21.3 12.2 4.2 0.6 0.0 0.0
Stanford 8.2% 3.3 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.1% 0.0 0.0
USC 10.6% 4.3 3.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 2.7% 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oregon St.
Utah 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UCLA
Washington St.
California 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 92.3% 29.3% 63.0% 7   2.4 4.3 5.7 9.3 10.8 11.0 12.5 12.4 11.0 8.0 4.5 0.5 7.7 89.1%
Oregon 99.8% 24.0% 75.8% 4   4.9 11.1 15.5 20.1 18.4 13.3 9.2 4.4 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 99.7%
Colorado 98.0% 20.9% 77.1% 6   1.9 4.3 7.9 12.4 14.0 15.0 14.8 11.5 9.4 4.8 1.8 0.1 2.0 97.4%
Stanford 49.5% 8.1% 41.4% 11   0.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.8 6.1 8.9 10.9 12.9 1.9 0.0 50.5 45.0%
Washington 24.7% 5.0% 19.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.7 3.0 5.7 11.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 75.3 20.7%
USC 71.2% 7.1% 64.1% 10   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.9 6.9 10.0 15.3 15.1 14.8 1.5 28.8 69.0%
Arizona St. 26.8% 3.5% 23.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.5 6.6 9.4 1.9 73.2 24.1%
Oregon St. 2.1% 0.8% 1.3% 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9 1.3%
Utah 5.3% 0.7% 4.6% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.7 1.0 94.7 4.6%
UCLA 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.6 0.0%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Arizona 92.3% 3.2% 91.1% 64.6% 33.2% 16.9% 8.1% 3.7% 1.5%
Oregon 99.8% 0.1% 99.8% 76.3% 41.5% 18.6% 7.4% 3.2% 1.3%
Colorado 98.0% 1.2% 97.4% 64.3% 29.7% 12.9% 5.2% 2.0% 0.6%
Stanford 49.5% 10.8% 44.0% 21.1% 7.1% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Washington 24.7% 9.0% 20.3% 8.6% 2.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
USC 71.2% 11.7% 65.0% 28.4% 7.9% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Arizona St. 26.8% 8.5% 21.9% 8.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Oregon St. 2.1% 0.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 5.3% 2.8% 3.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UCLA 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.7 0.2 6.4 34.2 42.5 15.1 1.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.5 0.5 11.1 41.4 37.2 9.3 0.6
2nd Round 99.2% 2.7 0.8 8.7 30.9 38.9 17.6 3.1 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 80.5% 1.2 19.5 44.3 28.7 6.9 0.7 0.0
Elite Eight 47.0% 0.6 53.0 39.0 7.5 0.5 0.0
Final Four 21.6% 0.2 78.4 20.3 1.3 0.0
Final Game 9.4% 0.1 90.6 9.3 0.1
Champion 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7