Pac-12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
12 Oregon 94.5%   3   3 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 6 13 - 5 +15.7      +7.6 18 +8.1 12 67.2 256 +21.4 7 0.0 1
13 Arizona 89.2%   4   3 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 5 +14.9      +8.0 14 +6.9 27 69.4 187 +13.4 33 0.0 1
32 Colorado 71.3%   9   1 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 11 - 7 +11.8      +4.8 60 +7.0 25 73.0 95 +20.9 9 0.0 1
49 Washington 61.9%   10   2 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 10 - 8 +10.0      +1.9 114 +8.1 11 65.7 287 +23.1 4 0.0 1
59 USC 35.0%   3 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 9 - 9 +8.5      +5.7 41 +2.9 89 72.8 102 +4.6 113 0.0 1
65 Arizona St. 29.2%   1 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +8.0      +4.8 59 +3.2 83 79.7 24 -3.5 228 0.0 1
69 Oregon St. 27.1%   2 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 12 8 - 10 +7.6      +6.0 33 +1.6 121 65.1 297 +10.3 55 0.0 1
78 Utah 28.3%   3 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 8 - 10 +6.7      +5.8 36 +0.8 139 72.5 111 +16.9 19 0.0 1
83 UCLA 23.0%   3 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 8 - 10 +6.6      +4.8 61 +1.8 119 66.8 265 +9.6 62 0.0 1
92 Stanford 14.9%   3 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 7 - 11 +5.4      +1.2 137 +4.2 69 73.0 97 +7.0 81 0.0 1
116 California 6.8%   3 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 6 - 12 +2.6      +2.8 95 -0.1 162 66.8 262 +11.2 49 0.0 1
133 Washington St. 2.1%   1 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 16 5 - 13 +1.9      +1.8 122 +0.2 153 74.7 75 -0.9 192 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Oregon 2.5 41.0 22.1 13.8 8.7 5.5 3.5 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1
Arizona 2.8 34.2 22.7 14.8 9.8 6.6 4.6 3.0 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
Colorado 4.1 17.0 17.4 15.6 12.6 10.1 7.8 6.2 4.7 3.5 2.6 1.7 0.8
Washington 4.8 11.0 13.5 14.1 13.1 11.4 9.7 8.0 6.6 4.9 3.7 2.6 1.4
USC 6.0 5.0 8.1 10.1 11.6 11.8 11.1 10.3 9.5 8.1 6.7 4.9 2.7
Arizona St. 6.4 4.5 6.6 8.6 10.0 10.8 10.8 10.3 10.2 9.3 8.2 6.5 4.3
Oregon St. 6.6 3.4 5.9 8.0 9.8 10.7 11.1 11.0 10.6 9.7 8.5 7.1 4.3
Utah 7.0 2.6 4.8 6.9 8.7 10.0 10.6 11.2 11.0 10.8 9.7 8.3 5.3
UCLA 7.1 2.3 4.5 6.6 8.4 9.5 10.5 11.2 11.4 11.2 10.1 8.7 5.5
Stanford 7.6 1.7 3.3 5.1 6.7 8.3 9.8 10.6 11.7 11.8 11.6 10.8 8.6
California 9.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.1 4.3 6.1 7.6 9.6 12.0 14.8 18.1 21.1
Washington St. 9.4 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.5 7.0 8.8 11.2 14.3 18.3 25.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Oregon 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.5 4.0 6.3 8.8 11.7 14.3 15.1 14.4 11.4 6.8 2.4
Arizona 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.4 5.1 7.6 9.9 12.4 14.2 14.6 12.8 9.3 5.3 1.6
Colorado 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.4 5.1 7.0 9.1 10.8 12.4 12.8 11.5 10.2 7.2 4.3 2.0 0.6
Washington 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.8 7.2 9.2 11.1 12.1 12.4 11.5 9.9 7.2 5.0 2.5 1.0 0.2
USC 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.6 5.8 7.9 10.2 11.9 12.6 12.6 10.8 8.6 6.1 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
Arizona St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 4.9 7.1 9.5 10.9 11.9 12.2 11.1 9.5 7.4 5.0 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
Oregon St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.0 7.5 10.2 11.5 12.4 12.5 11.4 9.2 6.6 4.7 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Utah 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.6 6.2 8.4 10.9 12.5 12.4 12.3 10.1 8.2 5.7 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
UCLA 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.7 6.4 9.1 11.3 12.6 12.7 11.9 10.1 7.8 5.3 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Stanford 7 - 11 0.2 1.1 2.8 5.3 8.0 10.6 12.3 13.1 12.3 10.6 8.8 6.1 4.3 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
California 6 - 12 1.2 3.9 7.5 10.9 13.2 14.1 13.4 11.2 8.9 6.5 4.3 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington St. 5 - 13 1.7 5.1 8.9 11.8 13.6 13.8 12.5 10.5 8.1 5.7 3.8 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Oregon 41.0% 29.7 9.1 1.9 0.3 0.0
Arizona 34.2% 23.7 8.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Colorado 17.0% 10.5 5.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Washington 11.0% 6.3 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
USC 5.0% 2.6 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 4.5% 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Oregon St. 3.4% 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah 2.6% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UCLA 2.3% 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Stanford 1.7% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
California 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Oregon 94.5% 30.1% 64.3% 3   13.6 14.8 12.9 12.2 9.5 8.1 6.4 5.1 4.7 3.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 5.5 92.1%
Arizona 89.2% 25.3% 63.8% 4   9.0 11.0 10.3 10.7 9.1 8.3 7.4 6.4 6.2 5.3 4.5 0.9 0.0 10.8 85.5%
Colorado 71.3% 13.5% 57.8% 9   3.1 4.5 5.4 6.8 6.4 6.8 6.6 6.6 7.5 7.5 8.1 2.0 0.1 28.7 66.8%
Washington 61.9% 8.4% 53.5% 10   1.2 2.2 3.5 4.6 5.2 5.7 6.1 6.3 7.7 8.1 9.0 2.2 0.0 38.1 58.4%
USC 35.0% 5.1% 29.9% 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.2 4.2 5.2 5.8 7.2 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 65.0 31.5%
Arizona St. 29.2% 4.7% 24.5% 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.7 3.5 4.8 5.4 5.9 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.8 25.7%
Oregon St. 27.1% 4.0% 23.1% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.2 3.0 3.8 4.5 6.8 2.2 0.1 0.0 72.9 24.1%
Utah 28.3% 3.0% 25.2% 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.8 4.0 4.8 7.0 2.3 0.1 0.0 71.7 26.0%
UCLA 23.0% 2.8% 20.2% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.5 4.3 5.8 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.0 20.7%
Stanford 14.9% 1.9% 13.1% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.8 4.2 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.1 13.3%
California 6.8% 0.6% 6.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 93.2 6.3%
Washington St. 2.1% 0.5% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9 1.6%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Oregon 94.5% 2.3% 93.4% 72.7% 42.8% 22.2% 10.8% 5.0% 2.3%
Arizona 89.2% 3.8% 87.3% 64.7% 35.4% 17.7% 8.4% 3.9% 1.7%
Colorado 71.3% 7.5% 67.3% 42.6% 19.3% 8.6% 3.7% 1.6% 0.7%
Washington 61.9% 8.5% 57.2% 32.0% 12.4% 4.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
USC 35.0% 6.6% 31.7% 16.2% 5.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Arizona St. 29.2% 5.2% 26.5% 13.5% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Oregon St. 27.1% 6.7% 23.6% 11.3% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Utah 28.3% 7.4% 24.1% 10.8% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
UCLA 23.0% 5.5% 19.9% 8.9% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Stanford 14.9% 4.1% 12.6% 5.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
California 6.8% 2.2% 5.5% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 2.1% 0.7% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.8 0.0 1.1 9.2 28.0 35.4 20.0 5.5 0.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.5 0.1 2.4 14.5 33.6 32.1 14.1 3.0 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 99.2% 2.8 0.8 9.2 29.4 35.9 19.1 4.9 0.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 82.2% 1.3 17.8 43.2 30.2 7.9 0.9 0.0
Elite Eight 50.3% 0.6 49.7 40.8 8.9 0.7 0.0 0.0
Final Four 25.5% 0.3 74.5 23.8 1.6 0.0
Final Game 11.7% 0.1 88.3 11.5 0.2
Champion 5.1% 0.1 94.9 5.1