Preseason Rankings
Pac-12
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
16 Oregon 76.5%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 13 - 5 +13.7      +5.5 46 +8.3 11 62.8 326 0.0 1 0.0 1
31 Arizona 65.0%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +12.1      +6.5 30 +5.5 40 67.3 218 0.0 1 0.0 1
40 Colorado 54.7%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 11 - 7 +11.0      +4.6 59 +6.3 26 69.4 160 0.0 1 0.0 1
44 Washington 49.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 11 - 7 +10.4      +4.3 68 +6.1 31 65.7 266 0.0 1 0.0 1
64 USC 34.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 8 +8.5      +5.9 36 +2.5 104 72.8 79 0.0 1 0.0 1
65 Arizona St. 36.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +8.1      +5.7 43 +2.5 105 75.7 41 0.0 1 0.0 1
74 Oregon St. 22.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +7.0      +4.5 64 +2.5 102 65.1 280 0.0 1 0.0 1
82 UCLA 21.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 8 - 10 +6.4      +5.0 55 +1.4 125 79.7 16 0.0 1 0.0 1
110 Utah 9.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 7 - 11 +3.8      +4.1 71 -0.4 176 66.0 254 0.0 1 0.0 1
113 Stanford 7.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 7 - 11 +3.6      +0.4 163 +3.2 87 73.4 73 0.0 1 0.0 1
157 Washington St. 1.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 5 - 13 +0.2      +1.9 115 -1.7 214 74.7 55 0.0 1 0.0 1
166 California 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 5 - 13 -0.2      -0.2 185 -0.1 164 66.8 228 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Oregon 3.0 34.8 20.2 13.7 10.0 7.1 5.1 3.5 2.6 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2
Arizona 3.8 23.2 17.4 14.0 12.0 9.2 7.9 5.6 4.2 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.4
Colorado 4.1 18.7 16.4 14.8 12.5 9.9 8.2 6.5 5.1 3.6 2.4 1.4 0.6
Washington 4.3 17.5 16.3 14.4 11.7 10.1 8.3 7.2 5.2 3.8 3.0 1.8 0.8
USC 5.5 8.4 10.0 11.5 11.2 11.3 10.6 10.1 8.6 7.1 5.7 3.8 1.8
Arizona St. 5.8 7.8 9.0 10.0 10.5 11.1 10.6 10.2 9.5 8.0 6.2 4.6 2.5
Oregon St. 6.3 5.8 6.8 8.6 9.8 10.8 11.2 10.6 10.1 9.0 7.9 6.0 3.4
UCLA 6.6 4.3 6.2 7.7 9.0 10.3 10.7 11.4 11.0 10.1 8.9 6.8 3.7
Utah 7.8 1.7 3.1 4.5 6.0 7.3 9.0 10.1 11.8 12.8 12.7 12.2 8.7
Stanford 7.8 1.8 3.3 4.5 6.5 7.8 8.8 10.3 11.7 12.5 12.5 11.7 8.8
Washington St. 9.4 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.6 4.9 6.5 9.3 11.9 15.1 19.9 23.3
California 9.6 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.3 4.6 6.1 8.5 11.3 15.2 20.3 26.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Oregon 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.5 5.3 7.3 9.4 11.4 13.4 13.9 12.9 10.0 6.0 2.3
Arizona 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.4 4.0 6.0 7.9 9.9 10.9 12.4 12.2 11.1 8.8 6.6 3.7 1.1
Colorado 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.0 5.0 6.8 8.6 10.6 11.7 12.2 11.8 10.2 7.9 5.3 2.5 0.8
Washington 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.4 5.2 7.0 9.1 10.5 11.4 12.1 11.6 9.5 7.6 4.9 2.5 0.6
USC 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.0 4.8 6.4 8.5 10.4 11.5 11.8 11.1 10.1 7.9 5.7 3.7 1.8 0.7 0.2
Arizona St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.6 5.2 7.4 9.2 10.7 11.3 11.6 10.5 9.1 7.0 5.1 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.1
Oregon St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 4.9 6.5 8.7 10.1 11.3 11.6 11.0 9.9 7.8 5.6 3.7 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1
UCLA 8 - 10 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.4 7.3 9.5 11.2 11.9 11.3 11.1 8.7 6.8 5.1 3.0 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
Utah 7 - 11 0.5 1.9 3.9 6.4 9.0 10.9 12.0 12.2 11.3 9.6 8.0 6.0 3.8 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Stanford 7 - 11 0.4 1.6 4.0 6.2 8.6 10.8 12.0 12.2 10.8 9.9 8.3 6.1 4.0 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Washington St. 5 - 13 2.4 6.2 9.9 12.1 14.0 13.0 11.7 9.7 7.4 5.3 3.5 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
California 5 - 13 2.7 6.9 10.8 13.5 13.9 13.1 11.5 8.8 6.9 4.9 3.2 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Oregon 34.8% 24.2 8.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 23.2% 15.6 5.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Colorado 18.7% 11.9 5.2 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington 17.5% 10.8 5.1 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
USC 8.4% 4.9 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 7.8% 4.6 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 5.8% 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
UCLA 4.3% 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Stanford 1.8% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
California 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Oregon 76.5% 25.3% 51.2% 7   5.4 7.0 7.0 8.0 7.2 6.5 6.9 6.5 6.8 6.6 6.4 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 23.5 68.5%
Arizona 65.0% 17.9% 47.1% 9   3.2 4.2 4.7 5.6 5.7 5.4 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.9 7.6 2.6 0.2 0.0 35.0 57.4%
Colorado 54.7% 14.3% 40.3% 10   1.5 2.6 3.2 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.1 6.1 6.8 8.2 3.3 0.2 0.0 45.3 47.1%
Washington 49.9% 12.9% 37.0% 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.7 6.0 6.3 7.9 3.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 50.1 42.5%
USC 34.1% 7.9% 26.2% 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.9 3.4 4.3 5.1 6.5 3.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 65.9 28.5%
Arizona St. 36.1% 7.4% 28.7% 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.6 4.9 5.4 6.7 2.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 63.9 31.0%
Oregon St. 22.5% 5.4% 17.1% 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.2 4.9 2.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 77.5 18.1%
UCLA 21.1% 4.3% 16.8% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.4 4.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 78.9 17.5%
Utah 9.7% 2.0% 7.7% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.3 7.9%
Stanford 7.8% 1.7% 6.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 2.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 92.2 6.2%
Washington St. 1.8% 0.6% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.2 1.3%
California 2.4% 0.4% 2.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6 2.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Oregon 76.5% 5.3% 73.9% 50.8% 26.1% 12.8% 6.0% 2.6% 1.1%
Arizona 65.0% 6.5% 61.8% 39.4% 18.3% 8.5% 3.7% 1.6% 0.6%
Colorado 54.7% 7.6% 50.8% 30.9% 13.4% 5.8% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
Washington 49.9% 7.2% 46.3% 27.3% 11.4% 4.7% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3%
USC 34.1% 6.4% 30.7% 16.1% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Arizona St. 36.1% 6.2% 32.6% 17.1% 6.2% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Oregon St. 22.5% 5.0% 20.0% 9.6% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
UCLA 21.1% 4.9% 18.6% 8.9% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Utah 9.7% 2.7% 8.1% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 7.8% 2.3% 6.6% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 1.8% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 2.4% 0.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.8 1.3 10.6 27.5 34.4 19.5 5.8 0.9 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 3.5 2.2 15.0 33.2 31.2 14.4 3.5 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 94.8% 2.1 5.2 24.5 37.8 24.0 7.4 1.1 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 65.1% 0.9 34.9 44.4 17.6 2.8 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 34.4% 0.4 65.6 30.1 4.1 0.2 0.0
Final Four 15.6% 0.2 84.4 15.0 0.6 0.0
Final Game 6.7% 0.1 93.3 6.6 0.1
Champion 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6