Preseason Rankings
Purdue
Big Ten
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.9#12
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.9#284
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#32
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.1% 3.2% 0.4%
#1 Seed 12.0% 12.4% 2.9%
Top 2 Seed 24.6% 25.2% 7.8%
Top 4 Seed 47.3% 48.3% 21.9%
Top 6 Seed 64.2% 65.3% 35.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.3% 85.3% 59.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.1% 83.2% 57.2%
Average Seed 4.5 4.5 5.8
.500 or above 91.5% 92.3% 69.5%
.500 or above in Conference 84.9% 85.6% 66.2%
Conference Champion 16.1% 16.4% 6.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.7% 3.0%
First Four1.5% 1.4% 1.9%
First Round83.6% 84.6% 57.6%
Second Round65.8% 66.8% 39.5%
Sweet Sixteen39.6% 40.4% 19.4%
Elite Eight21.3% 21.7% 9.4%
Final Four11.4% 11.6% 3.9%
Championship Game5.7% 5.8% 2.0%
National Champion2.8% 2.9% 0.8%

Next Game: Green Bay (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 8
Quad 27 - 214 - 9
Quad 35 - 019 - 10
Quad 43 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 167   Green Bay W 89-70 96%    
  Nov 09, 2019 24   Texas W 71-65 72%    
  Nov 13, 2019 27   @ Marquette W 74-73 53%    
  Nov 16, 2019 351   Chicago St. W 93-57 100.0%   
  Nov 23, 2019 216   Jacksonville St. W 81-59 98%    
  Nov 29, 2019 28   Virginia Commonwealth W 72-68 63%    
  Dec 04, 2019 10   Virginia W 62-60 58%    
  Dec 08, 2019 99   Northwestern W 74-59 90%    
  Dec 15, 2019 88   @ Nebraska W 74-67 72%    
  Dec 17, 2019 217   @ Ohio W 80-64 92%    
  Dec 21, 2019 56   Butler W 74-67 71%    
  Dec 28, 2019 154   Central Michigan W 87-69 94%    
  Jan 02, 2020 70   Minnesota W 77-66 83%    
  Jan 05, 2020 42   @ Illinois W 77-75 56%    
  Jan 09, 2020 21   @ Michigan W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 12, 2020 1   Michigan St. L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 18, 2020 9   @ Maryland L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 21, 2020 42   Illinois W 80-72 75%    
  Jan 24, 2020 33   Wisconsin W 68-61 73%    
  Jan 28, 2020 66   @ Rutgers W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 01, 2020 99   @ Northwestern W 71-62 76%    
  Feb 05, 2020 39   Iowa W 82-74 74%    
  Feb 08, 2020 47   @ Indiana W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 11, 2020 43   Penn St. W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 15, 2020 14   @ Ohio St. L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 18, 2020 33   @ Wisconsin W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 22, 2020 21   Michigan W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 27, 2020 47   Indiana W 74-65 76%    
  Mar 03, 2020 39   @ Iowa W 79-77 57%    
  Mar 07, 2020 66   Rutgers W 76-65 82%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.9 4.0 4.2 2.6 0.7 16.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.9 5.4 5.4 3.1 1.1 0.1 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.5 5.5 3.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.7 2.6 0.6 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.5 4.0 5.3 6.7 8.5 10.1 11.1 11.7 11.0 9.8 7.3 5.3 2.7 0.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 97.7% 2.6    2.3 0.3
18-2 79.5% 4.2    3.0 1.2 0.1
17-3 55.1% 4.0    2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 29.7% 2.9    1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 11.8% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.1% 16.1 9.8 5.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 100.0% 53.1% 46.9% 1.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
19-1 2.7% 100.0% 46.7% 53.3% 1.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.3% 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 1.4 3.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.3% 100.0% 27.1% 72.9% 1.8 3.0 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.8% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 2.5 1.9 3.4 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.0% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 3.3 0.8 2.5 3.5 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.7% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 4.2 0.3 1.1 2.8 3.0 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.1% 99.4% 7.1% 92.3% 5.2 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.4%
12-8 10.1% 95.5% 4.2% 91.2% 6.5 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.2 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 95.3%
11-9 8.5% 88.3% 2.7% 85.6% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 87.9%
10-10 6.7% 71.3% 2.0% 69.2% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 70.7%
9-11 5.3% 40.0% 0.9% 39.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.2 39.4%
8-12 4.0% 16.3% 1.0% 15.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.4 15.4%
7-13 2.5% 3.4% 0.1% 3.3% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 3.3%
6-14 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.1%
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 84.3% 12.2% 72.1% 4.5 12.0 12.5 12.5 10.2 9.1 7.8 6.2 5.2 3.6 2.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 15.7 82.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 95.7 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 99.4 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 95.1 4.9