Preseason Rankings
Kansas St.
Big 12
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#50
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.8#339
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#128
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#14
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 3.0% 3.4% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 9.3% 10.2% 2.7%
Top 6 Seed 17.9% 19.6% 5.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.9% 43.8% 20.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 38.3% 41.2% 18.5%
Average Seed 6.8 6.8 7.7
.500 or above 63.7% 67.5% 36.9%
.500 or above in Conference 37.3% 39.5% 22.0%
Conference Champion 3.8% 4.2% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 18.2% 16.7% 28.9%
First Four2.6% 2.7% 1.6%
First Round39.6% 42.5% 19.6%
Second Round24.2% 26.1% 10.4%
Sweet Sixteen10.1% 11.0% 3.8%
Elite Eight4.3% 4.7% 1.4%
Final Four1.7% 1.9% 0.4%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 87.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 24 - 39 - 13
Quad 34 - 112 - 14
Quad 45 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 153   North Dakota St. W 69-57 88%    
  Nov 09, 2019 146   @ UNLV W 68-62 71%    
  Nov 13, 2019 239   Monmouth W 71-54 94%    
  Nov 19, 2019 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 73-47 99%    
  Nov 25, 2019 72   Pittsburgh W 64-62 59%    
  Dec 02, 2019 341   Florida A&M W 72-46 99%    
  Dec 07, 2019 27   Marquette W 67-66 52%    
  Dec 11, 2019 332   Alabama St. W 76-52 98%    
  Dec 14, 2019 48   Mississippi St. L 64-65 49%    
  Dec 21, 2019 141   Saint Louis W 66-54 85%    
  Dec 29, 2019 100   Tulsa W 69-60 77%    
  Jan 04, 2020 38   @ Oklahoma L 63-67 36%    
  Jan 07, 2020 68   TCU W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 11, 2020 24   @ Texas L 58-64 31%    
  Jan 14, 2020 13   Texas Tech L 60-63 41%    
  Jan 18, 2020 46   West Virginia W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 21, 2020 4   @ Kansas L 61-74 15%    
  Jan 25, 2020 45   @ Alabama L 63-67 38%    
  Jan 29, 2020 38   Oklahoma W 66-64 55%    
  Feb 01, 2020 46   @ West Virginia L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 03, 2020 15   Baylor L 62-64 44%    
  Feb 08, 2020 35   @ Iowa St. L 64-69 36%    
  Feb 11, 2020 49   Oklahoma St. W 65-62 59%    
  Feb 15, 2020 68   @ TCU L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 19, 2020 13   @ Texas Tech L 57-66 24%    
  Feb 22, 2020 24   Texas W 62-61 51%    
  Feb 25, 2020 15   @ Baylor L 59-67 25%    
  Feb 29, 2020 4   Kansas L 64-71 30%    
  Mar 04, 2020 49   @ Oklahoma St. L 62-65 40%    
  Mar 07, 2020 35   Iowa St. W 67-66 55%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.1 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.7 2.9 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.8 5.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.9 5.2 2.3 0.3 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.0 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 12.6 9th
10th 0.4 1.6 3.0 3.8 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 12.3 10th
Total 0.4 1.6 3.4 5.8 7.7 9.8 11.5 11.5 11.1 10.0 8.5 6.5 5.1 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 89.8% 0.5    0.4 0.1
15-3 77.0% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 54.0% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 24.8% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.5% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.1% 100.0% 29.9% 70.1% 2.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.1% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 3.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.2% 99.6% 18.1% 81.4% 4.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-6 5.1% 99.9% 12.2% 87.7% 5.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 6.5% 96.3% 8.1% 88.2% 6.4 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.0%
10-8 8.5% 88.1% 5.2% 82.9% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 87.5%
9-9 10.0% 73.0% 3.8% 69.2% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.7 71.9%
8-10 11.1% 44.1% 2.4% 41.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 6.2 42.8%
7-11 11.5% 17.7% 1.2% 16.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 9.4 16.7%
6-12 11.5% 4.4% 0.7% 3.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.0 3.7%
5-13 9.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7 0.9%
4-14 7.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 0.0%
3-15 5.8% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
2-16 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
1-17 1.6% 1.6
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 40.9% 4.1% 36.8% 6.8 1.1 2.0 2.9 3.3 4.1 4.6 5.2 5.4 4.6 3.7 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 59.1 38.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0