Preseason Rankings
Houston
American Athletic
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#32
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.6#239
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#58
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#19
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.7% 2.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 6.9% 6.9% 1.7%
Top 4 Seed 16.9% 17.0% 4.4%
Top 6 Seed 26.8% 26.9% 5.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.8% 64.1% 35.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.8% 55.0% 28.6%
Average Seed 7.1 7.1 9.0
.500 or above 93.3% 93.5% 69.5%
.500 or above in Conference 85.5% 85.7% 66.0%
Conference Champion 24.5% 24.6% 12.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 3.0%
First Four7.0% 7.0% 6.9%
First Round60.3% 60.6% 31.2%
Second Round37.9% 38.1% 15.0%
Sweet Sixteen17.4% 17.5% 2.0%
Elite Eight7.9% 8.0% 0.1%
Final Four3.6% 3.6% 0.1%
Championship Game1.6% 1.6% 0.1%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.1%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Home) - 99.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 5
Quad 25 - 39 - 8
Quad 37 - 116 - 9
Quad 46 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2019 332   Alabama St. W 81-55 99%    
  Nov 15, 2019 67   BYU W 79-72 74%    
  Nov 19, 2019 229   @ Rice W 80-67 87%    
  Nov 22, 2019 16   @ Oregon L 62-67 34%    
  Nov 26, 2019 292   Houston Baptist W 91-68 98%    
  Dec 04, 2019 156   Texas St. W 72-57 90%    
  Dec 08, 2019 78   @ South Carolina W 72-70 57%    
  Dec 11, 2019 135   Texas Arlington W 73-60 88%    
  Dec 15, 2019 49   Oklahoma St. W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 19, 2019 169   UTEP W 75-60 91%    
  Dec 22, 2019 285   Portland W 77-58 95%    
  Jan 03, 2020 94   Central Florida W 70-60 81%    
  Jan 07, 2020 83   @ Temple W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 11, 2020 100   @ Tulsa W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 15, 2020 89   SMU W 72-62 79%    
  Jan 18, 2020 58   @ Wichita St. L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 23, 2020 73   Connecticut W 75-67 74%    
  Jan 26, 2020 79   South Florida W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 29, 2020 203   @ East Carolina W 76-64 84%    
  Feb 01, 2020 29   @ Cincinnati L 63-66 39%    
  Feb 06, 2020 242   Tulane W 81-61 95%    
  Feb 09, 2020 58   Wichita St. W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 12, 2020 79   @ South Florida W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 15, 2020 89   @ SMU W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 19, 2020 100   Tulsa W 75-64 80%    
  Feb 22, 2020 26   @ Memphis L 76-79 39%    
  Mar 01, 2020 29   Cincinnati W 66-63 59%    
  Mar 05, 2020 73   @ Connecticut W 72-70 57%    
  Mar 08, 2020 26   Memphis W 79-76 58%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.8 6.8 6.1 3.5 1.2 24.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.8 5.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.9 3.9 1.1 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 5.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.7 5.8 7.9 9.8 11.6 12.3 12.1 11.5 9.1 6.5 3.5 1.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 99.8% 3.5    3.4 0.1
16-2 93.7% 6.1    5.2 0.9 0.0
15-3 74.4% 6.8    4.4 2.1 0.2
14-4 41.3% 4.8    2.0 2.0 0.7 0.1
13-5 15.8% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.5% 24.5 16.6 5.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 100.0% 67.0% 33.0% 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.5% 100.0% 59.9% 40.1% 2.3 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.5% 99.9% 45.1% 54.7% 3.3 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-3 9.1% 99.3% 38.4% 60.9% 4.8 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
14-4 11.5% 96.5% 29.9% 66.5% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 94.9%
13-5 12.1% 89.9% 21.4% 68.5% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.2 87.1%
12-6 12.3% 77.3% 16.2% 61.2% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.8 73.0%
11-7 11.6% 57.2% 11.9% 45.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 1.9 0.9 0.1 5.0 51.4%
10-8 9.8% 37.7% 8.2% 29.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.6 0.7 0.1 6.1 32.1%
9-9 7.9% 17.0% 4.0% 13.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.5 13.6%
8-10 5.8% 6.5% 3.0% 3.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.4 3.6%
7-11 3.7% 1.6% 0.5% 1.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 1.1%
6-12 2.5% 0.8% 0.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
5-13 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 63.8% 20.1% 43.8% 7.1 2.7 4.2 4.5 5.5 4.9 5.0 5.7 5.7 6.9 7.5 7.9 3.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 36.2 54.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.4 64.8 32.3 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 78.2 21.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 70.7 24.0 4.0 1.3