Preseason Rankings
Elon
Colonial Athletic
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-9.7#317
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.0#143
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#304
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#314
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 2.3% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.4
.500 or above 6.1% 20.6% 5.5%
.500 or above in Conference 12.6% 26.9% 12.1%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.0% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 43.9% 25.1% 44.6%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round0.7% 2.1% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Away) - 3.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 82 - 13
Quad 46 - 88 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2019 75   @ Georgia Tech L 60-80 3%    
  Nov 15, 2019 21   @ Michigan L 55-81 1%    
  Nov 20, 2019 5   @ North Carolina L 67-98 0.2%   
  Nov 23, 2019 259   Manhattan L 63-64 45%    
  Nov 26, 2019 102   Furman L 65-76 17%    
  Nov 28, 2019 135   Texas Arlington L 66-74 23%    
  Dec 02, 2019 320   Kennesaw St. W 75-72 61%    
  Dec 05, 2019 308   @ High Point L 64-68 36%    
  Dec 17, 2019 302   @ Campbell L 68-73 35%    
  Dec 21, 2019 218   @ Winthrop L 74-84 21%    
  Dec 30, 2019 246   William & Mary L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 02, 2020 130   @ Northeastern L 64-79 11%    
  Jan 04, 2020 148   @ Hofstra L 69-83 13%    
  Jan 09, 2020 123   College of Charleston L 66-76 20%    
  Jan 11, 2020 268   UNC Wilmington L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 16, 2020 254   @ Drexel L 73-80 26%    
  Jan 18, 2020 240   @ Delaware L 65-73 25%    
  Jan 23, 2020 181   Towson L 66-71 33%    
  Jan 25, 2020 232   James Madison L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 30, 2020 148   Hofstra L 72-80 27%    
  Feb 01, 2020 130   Northeastern L 67-76 24%    
  Feb 06, 2020 268   @ UNC Wilmington L 74-81 28%    
  Feb 08, 2020 123   @ College of Charleston L 63-79 10%    
  Feb 13, 2020 240   Delaware L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 15, 2020 254   Drexel L 76-77 45%    
  Feb 20, 2020 232   @ James Madison L 66-75 24%    
  Feb 22, 2020 181   @ Towson L 63-74 18%    
  Feb 29, 2020 246   @ William & Mary L 71-79 26%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.5 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 5.0 5.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 14.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 4.5 7.2 5.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 20.9 9th
10th 2.8 7.1 9.2 8.3 4.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 33.3 10th
Total 2.8 7.2 10.7 13.0 14.1 12.7 11.2 8.8 6.9 4.9 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 89.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 64.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 76.2% 76.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 38.0% 38.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 25.4% 25.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 10.8% 10.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.7% 11.9% 11.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 1.1% 8.9% 8.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
11-7 2.1% 8.1% 8.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.9
10-8 3.2% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.1
9-9 4.9% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.8
8-10 6.9% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.8
7-11 8.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.7
6-12 11.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.2
5-13 12.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.7
4-14 14.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.1
3-15 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.0
2-16 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.7
1-17 7.2% 7.2
0-18 2.8% 2.8
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%