IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Mount St. Mary's
Northeast
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.1	#287
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.2	#194
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.2	#293

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.9	#254

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.1%	17.1%	7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.5	14.9	15.6

.500 or above	33.5%	68.2%	32.4%
.500 or above in Conference	56.0%	78.8%	55.3%
Conference Champion	9.0%	20.5%	8.6%
Last Place in Conference	7.7%	2.4%	7.8%

First Four	3.9%	4.5%	3.9%
First Round	6.0%	14.3%	5.8%
Second Round	0.2%	1.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 3.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 9
Quad 4	12 - 9	14 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2019	54	@ Georgetown	L	68-88	3%
Nov 12, 2019	44	@ Washington	L	58-78	3%
Nov 15, 2019	281	@ Lamar	L	70-73	40%
Nov 20, 2019	140	@ UAB	L	62-73	16%
Nov 22, 2019	2	@ Kentucky	L	53-83	0.4%
Nov 26, 2019	236	Utah Valley	W	72-71	50%
Nov 30, 2019	337	@ Howard	W	77-75	58%
Dec 03, 2019	137	@ Grand Canyon	L	65-77	16%
Dec 07, 2019	209	Loyola Maryland	L	73-74	46%
Dec 17, 2019	184	American	L	69-71	42%
Dec 20, 2019	267	@ Navy	L	67-71	36%
Dec 27, 2019	348	Coppin St.	W	77-67	80%
Jan 02, 2020	331	Wagner	W	68-61	73%
Jan 04, 2020	210	LIU Brooklyn	L	74-75	46%
Jan 09, 2020	304	@ Merrimack	L	69-71	45%
Jan 11, 2020	314	@ Bryant	L	72-73	47%
Jan 18, 2020	342	Central Connecticut St.	W	76-67	78%
Jan 20, 2020	293	St. Francis Brooklyn	W	72-69	61%
Jan 25, 2020	314	Bryant	W	75-70	66%
Jan 30, 2020	249	@ Sacred Heart	L	74-79	33%
Feb 01, 2020	252	@ Fairleigh Dickinson	L	69-74	34%
Feb 06, 2020	210	@ LIU Brooklyn	L	71-78	28%
Feb 08, 2020	293	@ St. Francis Brooklyn	L	69-72	42%
Feb 13, 2020	273	Robert Morris	W	68-66	57%
Feb 15, 2020	248	St. Francis (PA)	W	74-73	53%
Feb 18, 2020	331	@ Wagner	W	65-64	54%
Feb 21, 2020	273	@ Robert Morris	L	65-69	38%
Feb 23, 2020	304	Merrimack	W	72-68	64%
Feb 27, 2020	248	@ St. Francis (PA)	L	71-76	33%
Feb 29, 2020	252	Fairleigh Dickinson	W	72-71	53%
Projected Record						13 - 17	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Northeast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.5	1.6	2.5	2.3	1.4	0.5	0.1		9.0	1st
2nd											0.1	1.0	2.8	3.3	1.8	0.5	0.1				9.6	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.1	3.8	3.6	1.5	0.2	0.0					10.3	3rd
4th									0.0	1.1	4.1	3.9	1.2	0.1	0.0						10.4	4th
5th								0.0	0.9	4.2	4.3	1.1	0.1								10.7	5th
6th							0.0	0.8	3.9	4.1	1.1	0.1	0.0								10.0	6th
7th						0.0	0.6	3.2	4.7	1.4	0.1										10.1	7th
8th					0.1	0.7	3.0	4.0	1.5	0.1											9.4	8th
9th				0.1	1.0	2.8	3.3	1.4	0.1	0.0											8.7	9th
10th		0.0	0.4	1.2	2.3	2.5	0.9	0.1	0.0												7.3	10th
11th	0.1	0.6	1.0	1.3	1.0	0.4	0.1														4.4	11th

Total	0.1	0.6	1.4	2.6	4.4	6.4	7.9	9.4	11.2	11.0	10.9	10.0	8.2	6.5	4.6	2.9	1.4	0.5	0.1			Total

Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.5		0.5	0.0
16-2	96.1%	1.4		1.3	0.1
15-3	81.0%	2.3		1.8	0.5	0.0
14-4	55.1%	2.5		1.3	1.0	0.2	0.0
13-5	24.1%	1.6		0.4	0.7	0.4	0.1
12-6	6.2%	0.5		0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.7%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	9.0%	9.0		5.4	2.5	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		72.2%	72.2%		13.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
17-1	0.5%		38.8%	38.8%		14.0													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.3
16-2	1.4%		34.9%	34.9%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.9
15-3	2.9%		35.3%	35.3%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.3	1.9
14-4	4.6%		25.2%	25.2%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	3.4
13-5	6.5%		18.6%	18.6%		15.6															0.1	0.3	0.8	5.3
12-6	8.2%		15.4%	15.4%		15.8															0.0	0.2	1.1	6.9
11-7	10.0%		9.4%	9.4%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.8	9.0
10-8	10.9%		7.7%	7.7%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.8	10.1
9-9	11.0%		5.1%	5.1%		16.0																0.0	0.6	10.4
8-10	11.2%		2.3%	2.3%		16.0																	0.3	11.0
7-11	9.4%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	9.3
6-12	7.9%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	7.9
5-13	6.4%																							6.4
4-14	4.4%																							4.4
3-15	2.6%																							2.6
2-16	1.4%																							1.4
1-17	0.6%																							0.6
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		8.1%	8.1%	0.0%	15.5												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.8	5.4	91.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%