Boise St.
Mountain West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#108
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#99
Pace71.8#111
Improvement+0.6#151

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#76
First Shot+5.0#46
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#282
Layup/Dunks+2.8#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#251
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#182
Freethrows+4.0#7
Improvement+1.8#78

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#139
First Shot-1.4#212
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#19
Layups/Dunks-2.9#292
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#97
Freethrows+2.0#56
Improvement-1.1#249
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 5.2% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.4
.500 or above 94.4% 98.5% 90.4%
.500 or above in Conference 81.6% 92.1% 71.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round4.2% 5.2% 3.2%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Away) - 48.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 4
Quad 22 - 43 - 8
Quad 36 - 49 - 12
Quad 48 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 19   @ Oregon L 75-106 13%     0 - 1 -14.4 +4.3 -16.8
  Nov 15, 2019 115   UC Irvine L 60-69 65%     0 - 2 -8.5 -14.5 +6.4
  Nov 20, 2019 35   BYU W 72-68 OT 33%     1 - 2 +12.8 -6.3 +18.7
  Nov 23, 2019 159   @ Pacific W 82-76 3OT 55%     2 - 2 +9.2 -2.9 +11.1
  Nov 29, 2019 316   UNC Wilmington W 80-59 93%     3 - 2 +8.8 +2.3 +6.6
  Dec 04, 2019 118   @ New Mexico L 78-80 43%     3 - 3 0 - 1 +4.3 +12.3 -8.2
  Dec 07, 2019 101   Colorado St. W 75-64 59%     4 - 3 1 - 1 +13.1 -0.2 +12.8
  Dec 11, 2019 77   @ Tulsa L 56-69 29%     4 - 4 -2.9 -7.3 +3.8
  Dec 14, 2019 342   Alabama St. W 100-57 96%     5 - 4 +27.1 +15.5 +9.2
  Dec 22, 2019 80   Georgia Tech L 60-74 41%     5 - 5 -7.1 -10.6 +4.4
  Dec 23, 2019 278   Portland W 85-69 85%     6 - 5 +9.4 +11.2 -1.6
  Dec 25, 2019 150   UTEP W 72-67 63%     7 - 5 +5.9 +3.9 +2.1
  Dec 28, 2019 254   Cal St. Northridge W 103-72 88%     8 - 5 +22.8 +8.1 +10.4
  Jan 01, 2020 279   Wyoming W 65-54 90%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +1.4 -8.1 +9.9
  Jan 04, 2020 97   @ Nevada L 66-83 36%     9 - 6 2 - 2 -8.9 +0.2 -10.0
  Jan 08, 2020 131   UNLV W 73-66 68%     10 - 6 3 - 2 +6.5 -1.4 +7.9
  Jan 11, 2020 12   @ San Diego St. L 65-83 11%     10 - 7 3 - 3 -0.3 +4.0 -4.7
  Jan 15, 2020 164   @ Air Force L 78-85 55%     10 - 8 3 - 4 -3.9 +0.7 -4.4
  Jan 18, 2020 56   Utah St. W 88-83 OT 44%     11 - 8 4 - 4 +11.1 +6.3 +4.1
  Jan 25, 2020 137   @ Fresno St. L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 29, 2020 294   San Jose St. W 83-68 92%    
  Feb 01, 2020 97   Nevada W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 04, 2020 279   @ Wyoming W 70-62 77%    
  Feb 08, 2020 56   @ Utah St. L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 11, 2020 164   Air Force W 80-73 75%    
  Feb 16, 2020 12   San Diego St. L 65-72 24%    
  Feb 19, 2020 294   @ San Jose St. W 80-71 80%    
  Feb 23, 2020 118   New Mexico W 82-78 64%    
  Feb 26, 2020 131   @ UNLV L 72-73 45%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 3.2 7.0 3.4 0.4 14.2 2nd
3rd 2.1 9.9 3.9 0.2 16.2 3rd
4th 0.9 9.5 6.0 0.3 16.7 4th
5th 0.3 5.7 10.3 1.0 0.0 17.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 10.3 2.6 0.0 15.4 6th
7th 0.9 6.1 3.9 0.1 11.1 7th
8th 0.4 2.4 3.4 0.4 6.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.2 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.3 12.5 21.1 24.8 20.2 11.3 3.7 0.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 18.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1
13-5 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.5% 16.0% 14.0% 2.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.3%
13-5 3.7% 8.7% 7.9% 0.8% 11.4 0.2 0.1 3.3 0.9%
12-6 11.3% 8.2% 8.1% 0.2% 11.9 0.2 0.6 0.1 10.4 0.2%
11-7 20.2% 5.9% 5.9% 12.2 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 19.0
10-8 24.8% 4.1% 4.1% 12.4 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 23.8
9-9 21.1% 2.3% 2.3% 12.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 20.6
8-10 12.5% 1.2% 1.2% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.3
7-11 4.3% 0.5% 0.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
6-12 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 95.8 0.1%