Florida Atlantic
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#183
Expected Predictive Rating-0.3#178
Pace69.0#188
Improvement+2.7#67

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#221
First Shot-2.2#252
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#128
Layup/Dunks-3.6#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#154
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#118
Freethrows-0.4#194
Improvement+2.7#46

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#144
First Shot+2.2#101
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#299
Layups/Dunks+1.7#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#32
Freethrows+0.7#144
Improvement+0.0#176
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.0% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.0
.500 or above 58.7% 77.0% 47.2%
.500 or above in Conference 71.0% 87.6% 60.6%
Conference Champion 1.5% 3.2% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round2.8% 3.9% 2.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 38.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 55 - 10
Quad 48 - 213 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 84   @ Miami (FL) L 60-74 17%     0 - 1 -4.7 -10.1 +5.2
  Nov 11, 2019 35   @ Alabama L 59-78 9%     0 - 2 -4.6 -11.2 +7.9
  Nov 20, 2019 304   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 70-72 OT 68%     0 - 3 -7.6 -9.4 +2.0
  Nov 29, 2019 339   Holy Cross W 87-69 91%     1 - 3 +2.2 +6.3 -3.5
  Dec 01, 2019 228   Illinois-Chicago W 71-70 72%     2 - 3 -5.7 -6.5 +0.8
  Dec 02, 2019 116   St. Bonaventure L 64-71 44%     2 - 4 -6.2 -5.9 -0.5
  Dec 04, 2019 223   Canisius W 62-59 71%     3 - 4 -3.5 -13.0 +9.5
  Dec 14, 2019 341   High Point W 81-64 91%     4 - 4 +1.1 +6.2 -3.7
  Dec 22, 2019 236   @ Mercer W 65-50 52%     5 - 4 +13.6 -4.1 +18.8
  Dec 29, 2019 113   @ South Florida L 58-60 23%     5 - 5 +4.8 +0.7 +3.8
  Jan 02, 2020 162   Texas San Antonio W 79-64 57%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +12.4 -2.7 +14.1
  Jan 04, 2020 154   UTEP W 59-56 56%     7 - 5 2 - 0 +0.7 -9.0 +9.8
  Jan 09, 2020 240   @ Rice W 81-76 53%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +3.4 -1.0 +3.9
  Jan 11, 2020 93   @ North Texas L 58-81 19%     8 - 6 3 - 1 -14.4 -7.2 -8.5
  Jan 16, 2020 285   Middle Tennessee W 97-94 OT 81%     9 - 6 4 - 1 -7.1 +6.3 -13.7
  Jan 18, 2020 169   UAB L 65-68 58%     9 - 7 4 - 2 -5.9 -9.3 +3.4
  Jan 23, 2020 185   @ Charlotte L 62-65 39%    
  Jan 25, 2020 167   @ Old Dominion L 60-64 36%    
  Jan 30, 2020 106   Western Kentucky L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 01, 2020 156   Marshall W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 05, 2020 152   @ Florida International L 74-78 34%    
  Feb 08, 2020 152   Florida International W 76-75 56%    
  Feb 13, 2020 263   @ Southern Miss W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 15, 2020 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 62-72 18%    
Projected Record 12 - 12 7 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 3.2 0.9 0.1 5.6 2nd
3rd 1.0 6.4 2.3 0.1 9.8 3rd
4th 0.1 6.6 5.5 0.3 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 9.7 1.0 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.1 6.7 5.0 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 9.5 1.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.1 5.1 5.5 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 7.3 1.3 9.6 9th
10th 0.1 3.4 4.0 0.1 7.7 10th
11th 0.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.2 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 1.9 8.6 18.4 25.1 23.4 14.5 6.3 1.6 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 75.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1
11-3 40.6% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-4 9.9% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-5 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.2% 8.3% 8.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-3 1.6% 10.0% 10.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
10-4 6.3% 7.7% 7.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.8
9-5 14.5% 5.9% 5.9% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 13.6
8-6 23.4% 3.2% 3.2% 15.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 22.6
7-7 25.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 24.7
6-8 18.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 18.2
5-9 8.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.6
4-10 1.9% 1.9
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.5 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 1.6%