Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#310
Expected Predictive Rating-11.8#328
Pace66.9#246
Improvement+3.3#53

Offense
Total Offense-7.5#336
First Shot-6.0#325
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#288
Layup/Dunks-1.3#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#146
Freethrows-2.3#324
Improvement+2.8#45

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#202
First Shot+1.6#107
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#345
Layups/Dunks+0.6#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#124
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#231
Freethrows+1.1#109
Improvement+0.5#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.3% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 23.2% 45.3% 16.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.3% 1.1%
First Four1.2% 1.3% 1.2%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Away) - 24.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 60 - 12
Quad 47 - 118 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 95   @ Saint Louis L 67-89 7%     0 - 1 -13.8 +4.7 -19.6
  Nov 09, 2019 293   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 61-65 56%     0 - 2 -14.3 -14.5 +0.1
  Nov 11, 2019 200   @ Dartmouth L 49-55 19%     0 - 3 -5.6 -18.2 +12.1
  Nov 15, 2019 219   @ Mercer L 68-84 22%     0 - 4 -16.7 -13.2 -1.7
  Nov 20, 2019 186   Florida Atlantic W 72-70 OT 33%     1 - 4 -2.0 -9.0 +6.8
  Nov 23, 2019 42   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 48-78 3%     1 - 5 -16.4 -16.6 +1.0
  Nov 29, 2019 242   North Dakota L 63-78 46%     1 - 6 -22.6 -13.2 -9.9
  Nov 30, 2019 273   Campbell L 46-51 53%     1 - 7 -14.4 -25.9 +11.0
  Dec 01, 2019 147   Georgia Southern L 57-72 25%     1 - 8 -16.8 -18.4 +2.1
  Dec 04, 2019 165   @ Florida International L 53-71 14%     1 - 9 -15.2 -24.7 +11.0
  Dec 07, 2019 221   Robert Morris L 59-64 42%     1 - 10 -11.6 -11.7 -0.3
  Dec 18, 2019 142   @ South Dakota St. L 56-75 11%     1 - 11 -14.6 -11.9 -4.9
  Dec 29, 2019 56   @ USC L 58-71 4%     1 - 12 -0.7 -7.7 +7.0
  Jan 02, 2020 85   Liberty L 46-59 13%     1 - 13 0 - 1 -9.4 -12.4 -0.1
  Jan 04, 2020 251   Lipscomb W 68-61 47%     2 - 13 1 - 1 -1.0 -7.6 +7.0
  Jan 09, 2020 171   @ North Florida L 74-89 15%     2 - 14 1 - 2 -12.6 -1.5 -11.2
  Jan 11, 2020 303   @ Stetson W 66-62 OT 38%     3 - 14 2 - 2 -1.5 -2.7 +1.6
  Jan 16, 2020 345   Kennesaw St. W 73-51 84%     4 - 14 3 - 2 +2.7 -12.7 +13.7
  Jan 18, 2020 284   @ North Alabama L 65-70 32%     4 - 15 3 - 3 -8.9 -7.5 -1.4
  Jan 25, 2020 257   NJIT L 54-56 48%     4 - 16 3 - 4 -10.2 -7.7 -3.1
  Jan 30, 2020 238   @ Jacksonville L 57-64 24%    
  Feb 01, 2020 85   @ Liberty L 48-66 4%    
  Feb 06, 2020 303   Stetson W 62-59 60%    
  Feb 08, 2020 171   North Florida L 69-74 31%    
  Feb 13, 2020 345   @ Kennesaw St. W 66-61 67%    
  Feb 15, 2020 251   @ Lipscomb L 65-72 27%    
  Feb 22, 2020 257   @ NJIT L 61-67 28%    
  Feb 27, 2020 238   Jacksonville L 60-61 45%    
  Feb 29, 2020 284   North Alabama W 64-63 53%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 6 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.9 3.3 1.0 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.4 6.0 2.4 0.1 8.9 4th
5th 0.2 5.2 6.6 0.2 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 3.4 11.5 1.6 16.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.7 13.2 5.9 0.0 21.9 7th
8th 1.5 7.7 15.3 9.3 0.4 34.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 1.6 7.9 18.0 26.1 23.4 15.2 6.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0% 0.0
11-5 0.2% 0.0 0.1
10-6 1.7% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.1 1.6
9-7 6.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 6.0
8-8 15.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 15.0
7-9 23.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 22.9
6-10 26.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 25.8
5-11 18.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.9
4-12 7.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.8
3-13 1.6% 1.6
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 16.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%