Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.9#17
Expected Predictive Rating+20.1#4
Pace71.5#115
Improvement-0.2#189

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#39
First Shot+4.6#52
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#96
Layup/Dunks+1.4#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#141
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#103
Freethrows+0.7#115
Improvement+1.0#118

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#16
First Shot+7.9#11
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#157
Layups/Dunks+3.2#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#6
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#149
Freethrows+1.0#114
Improvement-1.2#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.3% 1.9% 0.6%
#1 Seed 8.2% 12.2% 3.7%
Top 2 Seed 24.7% 33.9% 14.3%
Top 4 Seed 66.2% 77.7% 53.4%
Top 6 Seed 90.4% 95.6% 84.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.9% 99.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.7% 99.9% 99.5%
Average Seed 3.9 3.3 4.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 100.0% 99.4%
Conference Champion 19.3% 27.3% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Round99.6% 99.9% 99.3%
Second Round80.0% 84.1% 75.5%
Sweet Sixteen44.1% 48.3% 39.4%
Elite Eight20.0% 22.4% 17.2%
Final Four8.8% 10.2% 7.3%
Championship Game3.6% 4.2% 3.0%
National Champion1.4% 1.6% 1.3%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 52.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 33 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 6
Quad 28 - 115 - 7
Quad 36 - 021 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 72   @ Pittsburgh L 61-63 64%     0 - 1 0 - 1 +8.1 -0.9 +8.9
  Nov 10, 2019 22   @ Florida W 63-51 41%     1 - 1 +28.1 +3.1 +26.2
  Nov 15, 2019 158   Western Carolina W 79-74 93%     2 - 1 +2.3 -1.6 +3.8
  Nov 20, 2019 157   Chattanooga W 89-53 93%     3 - 1 +33.3 +12.3 +20.3
  Nov 23, 2019 211   St. Francis (PA) W 80-65 96%     4 - 1 +9.0 -1.8 +10.3
  Nov 25, 2019 353   Chicago St. W 113-56 99.8%    5 - 1 +32.5 +19.1 +9.5
  Nov 29, 2019 45   Tennessee W 60-57 63%     6 - 1 +13.5 -6.6 +20.0
  Nov 30, 2019 19   Purdue W 63-60 OT 52%     7 - 1 +16.5 -5.2 +21.5
  Dec 03, 2019 39   @ Indiana L 64-80 49%     7 - 2 -1.7 +0.2 -2.1
  Dec 08, 2019 74   Clemson W 72-53 82%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +23.3 +11.0 +14.1
  Dec 17, 2019 171   North Florida W 98-81 94%     9 - 2 +13.6 +13.4 -0.8
  Dec 21, 2019 115   South Florida W 66-60 84%     10 - 2 +9.4 -2.6 +11.9
  Dec 28, 2019 284   North Alabama W 88-71 98%     11 - 2 +7.3 +10.3 -3.5
  Dec 31, 2019 71   Georgia Tech W 70-58 81%     12 - 2 2 - 1 +16.4 +3.6 +13.0
  Jan 04, 2020 8   @ Louisville W 78-65 30%     13 - 2 3 - 1 +32.2 +20.9 +12.3
  Jan 08, 2020 101   @ Wake Forest W 78-68 72%     14 - 2 4 - 1 +17.7 +6.2 +11.3
  Jan 15, 2020 48   Virginia W 54-50 74%     15 - 2 5 - 1 +11.4 -2.1 +14.0
  Jan 18, 2020 97   @ Miami (FL) W 83-79 OT 71%     16 - 2 6 - 1 +12.1 +0.4 +11.1
  Jan 25, 2020 53   Notre Dame W 85-84 76%     17 - 2 7 - 1 +7.6 +5.6 +2.0
  Jan 28, 2020 48   @ Virginia W 56-55 53%    
  Feb 01, 2020 66   @ Virginia Tech W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 03, 2020 59   North Carolina W 77-69 78%    
  Feb 08, 2020 97   Miami (FL) W 78-66 87%    
  Feb 10, 2020 2   @ Duke L 69-78 18%    
  Feb 15, 2020 49   Syracuse W 73-66 74%    
  Feb 18, 2020 72   Pittsburgh W 70-60 82%    
  Feb 22, 2020 46   @ North Carolina St. W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 24, 2020 8   Louisville W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 29, 2020 74   @ Clemson W 67-63 63%    
  Mar 04, 2020 53   @ Notre Dame W 72-71 55%    
  Mar 07, 2020 143   Boston College W 76-61 92%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.5 7.9 3.4 0.6 19.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.5 9.1 9.0 2.6 0.0 24.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.7 9.3 15.1 11.6 3.6 0.2 42.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.4 1.1 0.1 9.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.7 7.9 13.3 19.9 22.5 18.1 10.7 3.5 0.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
18-2 98.8% 3.4    2.8 0.6 0.1
17-3 73.8% 7.9    3.6 3.6 0.7
16-4 30.2% 5.5    1.3 2.9 1.3 0.0
15-5 7.7% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.8 0.0
14-6 1.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.3% 19.3 8.6 7.7 2.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.5% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 1.5 1.8 1.5 0.2 100.0%
17-3 10.7% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 2.0 3.2 4.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 18.1% 100.0% 14.2% 85.8% 2.7 2.0 5.8 6.7 2.9 0.6 0.1 100.0%
15-5 22.5% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 3.4 0.7 3.4 7.9 7.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-6 19.9% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 4.3 0.1 0.8 3.8 6.6 5.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.3% 99.8% 7.5% 92.3% 5.4 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.3 3.8 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 7.9% 99.5% 5.4% 94.1% 6.5 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.5%
11-9 2.7% 98.1% 2.3% 95.8% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 98.1%
10-10 0.7% 90.3% 4.2% 86.1% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 89.9%
9-11 0.2% 76.2% 4.8% 71.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 75.0%
8-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.7% 12.2% 87.5% 3.9 8.2 16.5 21.7 19.8 14.5 9.6 5.3 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 99.7%