James Madison
Colonial Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#267
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#244
Pace82.6#11
Improvement-1.9#260

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#229
First Shot-1.6#229
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#213
Layup/Dunks-0.9#214
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#133
Freethrows+1.3#87
Improvement-4.0#336

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#291
First Shot-5.4#327
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#67
Layups/Dunks-0.8#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#288
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#288
Freethrows+0.0#179
Improvement+2.1#63
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.9% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 6.9% 17.1% 4.4%
.500 or above in Conference 2.6% 8.1% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 21.6% 9.3% 24.5%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
First Round0.8% 1.5% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Away) - 19.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 93 - 12
Quad 49 - 612 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 185   Charlotte W 79-74 41%     1 - 0 +1.3 +0.0 +0.8
  Nov 10, 2019 48   @ Virginia L 34-65 5%     1 - 1 -17.9 -25.4 +6.9
  Nov 16, 2019 153   @ George Mason L 70-83 19%     1 - 2 -9.5 -7.7 -0.6
  Nov 20, 2019 167   @ Old Dominion W 80-78 20%     2 - 2 +4.8 +5.8 -1.2
  Nov 23, 2019 298   New Hampshire W 78-71 68%     3 - 2 -3.7 -7.1 +2.4
  Nov 26, 2019 333   Coppin St. L 78-94 78%     3 - 3 -30.1 -13.2 -14.1
  Nov 30, 2019 229   East Carolina W 99-89 53%     4 - 3 +3.3 +18.0 -15.2
  Dec 04, 2019 145   @ Radford L 71-94 17%     4 - 4 -18.9 -0.1 -19.1
  Dec 16, 2019 286   Charleston Southern W 81-60 66%     5 - 4 +10.8 +3.7 +7.3
  Dec 20, 2019 265   @ Fordham W 75-69 38%     6 - 4 +3.1 +2.4 +0.5
  Dec 28, 2019 143   Hofstra L 76-82 33%     6 - 5 0 - 1 -7.6 -2.6 -4.8
  Dec 30, 2019 139   Northeastern L 72-88 32%     6 - 6 0 - 2 -17.2 -8.6 -7.4
  Jan 02, 2020 314   @ UNC Wilmington W 64-60 52%     7 - 6 1 - 2 -2.5 -10.0 +7.7
  Jan 04, 2020 127   @ College of Charleston L 69-85 14%     7 - 7 1 - 3 -10.5 -6.3 -3.5
  Jan 09, 2020 206   Delaware L 76-80 49%     7 - 8 1 - 4 -9.6 -9.8 +0.6
  Jan 11, 2020 199   Drexel L 71-78 48%     7 - 9 1 - 5 -12.4 -11.1 -0.6
  Jan 18, 2020 179   @ Towson L 61-69 22%     7 - 10 1 - 6 -5.8 -11.3 +5.5
  Jan 23, 2020 164   @ William & Mary L 75-84 19%    
  Jan 25, 2020 307   @ Elon W 78-77 50%    
  Jan 30, 2020 127   College of Charleston L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 01, 2020 314   UNC Wilmington W 78-72 73%    
  Feb 06, 2020 199   @ Drexel L 75-81 27%    
  Feb 08, 2020 206   @ Delaware L 75-81 28%    
  Feb 15, 2020 179   Towson L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 20, 2020 307   Elon W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 22, 2020 164   William & Mary L 78-81 39%    
  Feb 27, 2020 139   @ Northeastern L 72-82 16%    
  Feb 29, 2020 143   @ Hofstra L 75-85 17%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.9 0.1 4.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.6 6.1 2.9 0.3 0.0 15.1 7th
8th 1.0 8.0 16.2 13.8 5.3 0.6 0.0 44.9 8th
9th 0.9 6.7 10.0 5.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 23.8 9th
10th 0.8 3.7 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.7 10th
Total 0.8 4.6 12.0 19.7 22.6 19.5 12.5 5.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.5% 6.9% 6.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-9 2.0% 6.1% 6.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9
8-10 5.6% 3.5% 3.5% 15.7 0.1 0.1 5.4
7-11 12.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.2 12.3
6-12 19.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 19.3
5-13 22.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 22.4
4-14 19.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 19.6
3-15 12.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.0
2-16 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.6
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%