Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#89
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#69
Pace64.7#303
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#79
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#102
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 1.3% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 3.2% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.9% 33.8% 20.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.7% 7.6% 1.4%
Average Seed 11.8 10.7 12.3
.500 or above 93.6% 98.6% 92.1%
.500 or above in Conference 90.9% 95.3% 89.6%
Conference Champion 29.7% 40.4% 26.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four1.3% 3.1% 0.8%
First Round23.2% 32.4% 20.5%
Second Round6.6% 11.8% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 3.5% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.5% 1.0% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Creighton (Away) - 23.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 35 - 37 - 7
Quad 411 - 118 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 303   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 82-49 85%     1 - 0 +27.8 +15.5 +15.2
  Nov 16, 2019 43   @ Creighton L 68-76 23%    
  Nov 19, 2019 352   Mississippi Valley W 97-68 99.7%   
  Nov 22, 2019 309   North Alabama W 79-61 95%    
  Nov 25, 2019 45   @ Indiana L 66-73 24%    
  Nov 30, 2019 183   Samford W 77-67 82%    
  Dec 05, 2019 57   @ Mississippi St. L 64-70 29%    
  Dec 08, 2019 181   @ Sam Houston St. W 70-66 64%    
  Dec 14, 2019 242   Louisiana W 82-69 88%    
  Dec 17, 2019 334   NC Central W 82-62 96%    
  Dec 30, 2019 223   @ Southern Miss W 68-62 70%    
  Jan 04, 2020 223   Southern Miss W 71-59 86%    
  Jan 09, 2020 203   @ Texas San Antonio W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 11, 2020 129   @ UTEP W 67-66 53%    
  Jan 16, 2020 217   Rice W 79-67 85%    
  Jan 18, 2020 145   North Texas W 64-56 75%    
  Jan 23, 2020 162   @ Middle Tennessee W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 25, 2020 152   @ UAB W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 30, 2020 232   Charlotte W 72-59 86%    
  Feb 01, 2020 127   Old Dominion W 65-58 71%    
  Feb 06, 2020 72   @ Western Kentucky L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 08, 2020 239   @ Marshall W 80-73 73%    
  Feb 13, 2020 165   Florida International W 82-73 78%    
  Feb 15, 2020 171   Florida Atlantic W 72-62 78%    
Projected Record 17 - 7 10 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 6.6 10.6 8.0 2.6 29.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.7 8.2 3.5 0.3 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.6 5.2 6.4 1.6 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 5.4 1.6 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 1.1 4.3 1.8 0.2 7.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 2.6 0.2 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.5 0.6 0.0 3.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 1.3 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.7 7.6 11.0 14.4 16.6 16.3 14.2 8.3 2.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 2.6    2.6
13-1 97.0% 8.0    6.7 1.3 0.0
12-2 75.1% 10.6    6.4 3.9 0.4 0.0
11-3 40.2% 6.6    2.2 2.9 1.3 0.2 0.0
10-4 10.8% 1.8    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 29.7% 29.7 18.1 8.7 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 2.6% 79.5% 59.5% 20.0% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 49.3%
13-1 8.3% 54.6% 43.6% 11.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.8 19.5%
12-2 14.2% 39.8% 35.9% 3.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.5 6.0%
11-3 16.3% 27.7% 27.0% 0.7% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 11.8 1.0%
10-4 16.6% 21.4% 21.3% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 13.0 0.2%
9-5 14.4% 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 12.4 0.0%
8-6 11.0% 9.4% 9.4% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.9
7-7 7.6% 4.6% 4.6% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.2
6-8 4.7% 3.3% 3.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.5
5-9 2.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
4-10 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-11 0.5% 0.5
2-12 0.2% 0.2
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 23.9% 21.8% 2.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.2 3.8 7.7 5.3 2.7 0.7 0.1 76.1 2.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.0 8.3 16.7 55.6 8.3 5.6 5.6