Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#82
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#88
Pace67.3#238
Improvement-2.1#262

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#83
First Shot+1.7#117
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#69
Layup/Dunks+4.9#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#99
Freethrows-2.0#309
Improvement-3.3#325

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#83
First Shot+1.8#103
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#49
Layups/Dunks+2.6#78
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#126
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#266
Freethrows+0.2#168
Improvement+1.2#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.8% 29.8% 24.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 19.0% 22.1% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round28.8% 29.8% 24.1%
Second Round7.3% 7.6% 5.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.2% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Home) - 81.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 2
Quad 21 - 12 - 3
Quad 35 - 47 - 7
Quad 412 - 019 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 290   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 82-49 85%     1 - 0 +28.7 +16.7 +14.9
  Nov 16, 2019 28   @ Creighton L 72-82 20%     1 - 1 +5.5 +2.7 +3.0
  Nov 19, 2019 352   Mississippi Valley W 76-43 99%     2 - 1 +9.3 -19.3 +24.2
  Nov 22, 2019 284   North Alabama W 82-61 93%     3 - 1 +11.2 +12.8 -0.1
  Nov 25, 2019 37   @ Indiana L 75-88 23%     3 - 2 +1.4 -2.0 +5.3
  Nov 30, 2019 287   Samford W 78-57 93%     4 - 2 +11.2 -4.8 +15.3
  Dec 05, 2019 41   @ Mississippi St. W 74-67 25%     5 - 2 +20.8 +19.9 +2.2
  Dec 08, 2019 177   @ Sam Houston St. L 68-71 67%     5 - 3 -0.8 -9.2 +8.6
  Dec 14, 2019 245   Louisiana W 77-59 91%     6 - 3 +10.2 -1.3 +11.1
  Dec 17, 2019 298   NC Central W 69-60 94%     7 - 3 -1.7 +5.8 -5.8
  Dec 30, 2019 251   @ Southern Miss W 80-49 80%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +28.9 +11.4 +19.5
  Jan 04, 2020 251   Southern Miss W 78-50 91%     9 - 3 2 - 0 +20.0 +1.0 +18.9
  Jan 09, 2020 167   @ Texas San Antonio L 73-89 65%     9 - 4 2 - 1 -13.3 -3.9 -9.1
  Jan 11, 2020 153   @ UTEP W 64-61 62%     10 - 4 3 - 1 +6.7 +0.1 +6.7
  Jan 16, 2020 244   Rice W 72-56 91%     11 - 4 4 - 1 +8.2 -3.1 +12.2
  Jan 18, 2020 87   North Texas L 50-51 62%     11 - 5 4 - 2 +2.5 -12.7 +15.1
  Jan 23, 2020 286   @ Middle Tennessee W 80-73 84%     12 - 5 5 - 2 +3.0 +5.6 -2.5
  Jan 25, 2020 190   @ UAB W 72-58 69%     13 - 5 6 - 2 +15.4 +3.3 +12.6
  Jan 30, 2020 155   Charlotte W 68-59 82%    
  Feb 01, 2020 163   Old Dominion W 67-57 82%    
  Feb 06, 2020 103   @ Western Kentucky L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 08, 2020 157   @ Marshall W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 13, 2020 166   Florida International W 81-71 82%    
  Feb 15, 2020 186   Florida Atlantic W 73-62 85%    
Projected Record 17 - 7 10 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.8 7.3 10.9 19.0 1st
2nd 0.6 11.0 20.5 4.8 36.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 7.7 17.5 5.9 31.3 3rd
4th 1.7 5.7 1.4 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 0.8 2.7 5th
6th 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.6 4.3 14.9 30.8 33.7 15.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 69.3% 10.9    3.8 6.4 0.7
11-3 21.7% 7.3    1.1 3.6 2.3 0.3
10-4 2.7% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 19.0% 19.0 4.9 10.3 3.3 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 15.7% 36.3% 36.2% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.8 0.2 10.0 0.1%
11-3 33.7% 30.8% 30.8% 12.3 0.4 6.4 3.4 0.2 23.3
10-4 30.8% 28.6% 28.6% 12.7 0.0 3.4 4.7 0.6 0.0 22.0
9-5 14.9% 21.9% 21.9% 13.0 0.6 2.0 0.7 0.0 11.6
8-6 4.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.7
7-7 0.6% 6.6% 6.6% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-8 0.0% 0.0
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 28.8% 28.8% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 14.2 10.7 1.7 0.0 71.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.7% 100.0% 11.7 0.2 0.2 2.1 27.9 65.9 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.6% 0.3% 12.0 0.3