Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#302
Expected Predictive Rating-11.5#326
Pace66.3#263
Improvement-2.8#291

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#299
First Shot-3.4#284
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#261
Layup/Dunks+0.8#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#247
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#238
Freethrows-1.0#252
Improvement-2.2#286

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#286
First Shot-3.4#285
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#216
Layups/Dunks-0.2#183
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#82
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#251
Freethrows-3.3#330
Improvement-0.6#214
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 7.4% 15.8% 3.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 31.3% 17.5% 38.2%
First Four0.7% 1.1% 0.6%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hartford (Away) - 33.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 48 - 98 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 304   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 65-61 39%     1 - 0 -1.6 -5.4 +3.9
  Nov 19, 2019 32   @ LSU L 50-77 3%     1 - 1 -12.2 -19.6 +7.6
  Nov 22, 2019 234   Eastern Michigan L 45-62 34%     1 - 2 -21.1 -19.9 -2.7
  Nov 24, 2019 209   Nicholls St. L 72-82 30%     1 - 3 -13.0 -0.8 -12.1
  Nov 30, 2019 199   Drexel W 85-60 39%     2 - 3 +19.6 +13.3 +7.4
  Dec 03, 2019 221   @ American L 61-85 23%     2 - 4 -24.6 -15.2 -8.5
  Dec 07, 2019 196   St. Francis (PA) L 60-63 38%     2 - 5 -8.2 -14.2 +5.8
  Dec 10, 2019 179   @ Towson L 71-77 16%     2 - 6 -3.8 +8.0 -12.6
  Dec 15, 2019 333   Coppin St. W 86-77 71%     3 - 6 -5.1 +0.8 -6.6
  Dec 17, 2019 50   @ Georgetown L 55-81 3%     3 - 7 -13.0 -16.3 +4.2
  Dec 21, 2019 153   @ George Mason L 53-69 13%     3 - 8 -12.5 -17.1 +4.3
  Jan 04, 2020 271   Umass Lowell L 73-86 OT 52%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -22.0 -18.0 -2.1
  Jan 08, 2020 338   @ Binghamton L 75-79 55%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -13.6 -2.3 -11.4
  Jan 11, 2020 81   Vermont L 50-74 13%     3 - 11 0 - 3 -20.2 -18.0 -3.1
  Jan 18, 2020 298   @ New Hampshire L 60-65 37%     3 - 12 0 - 4 -10.0 -7.2 -3.2
  Jan 22, 2020 282   @ Hartford L 64-68 33%    
  Jan 25, 2020 336   Maine W 68-62 73%    
  Jan 29, 2020 225   Albany L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 01, 2020 136   @ Stony Brook L 61-74 10%    
  Feb 05, 2020 282   Hartford W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 08, 2020 271   @ Umass Lowell L 71-76 32%    
  Feb 15, 2020 298   New Hampshire W 66-64 59%    
  Feb 20, 2020 225   @ Albany L 62-70 24%    
  Feb 22, 2020 81   @ Vermont L 56-74 5%    
  Feb 26, 2020 338   Binghamton W 73-66 74%    
  Feb 29, 2020 336   @ Maine W 65-64 52%    
  Mar 03, 2020 136   Stony Brook L 64-71 25%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 5 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 2.8 0.7 0.1 5.4 4th
5th 0.3 3.3 5.7 1.8 0.1 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.3 5.2 9.7 3.2 0.2 0.0 18.6 6th
7th 0.5 6.1 11.4 4.2 0.3 0.0 22.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 6.7 11.0 4.0 0.2 0.0 23.1 8th
9th 0.3 2.0 5.6 6.7 2.7 0.2 17.5 9th
Total 0.3 2.0 6.8 13.9 20.1 21.1 17.4 10.8 5.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 3.4% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.1% 10.3% 10.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-6 0.4% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4
9-7 1.8% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.7
8-8 5.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 5.1
7-9 10.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.7
6-10 17.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 17.3
5-11 21.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 21.0
4-12 20.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 20.0
3-13 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
2-14 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.8
1-15 2.0% 2.0
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%