Vermont
America East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#86
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#100
Pace65.2#286
Improvement+1.4#126

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#125
First Shot+1.5#126
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#152
Layup/Dunks+2.1#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#74
Freethrows+0.5#141
Improvement+2.7#49

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#67
First Shot+4.2#66
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#133
Layups/Dunks+4.5#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#113
Freethrows-0.9#240
Improvement-1.3#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.9% 65.7% 60.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 13.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 91.0% 92.9% 79.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round64.9% 65.7% 60.5%
Second Round14.4% 15.0% 11.3%
Sweet Sixteen4.1% 4.2% 3.5%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Hampshire (Away) - 85.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 21 - 12 - 4
Quad 34 - 36 - 6
Quad 419 - 225 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 119   @ St. Bonaventure W 61-59 52%     1 - 0 +8.0 -7.9 +15.9
  Nov 10, 2019 215   @ Bucknell W 66-63 74%     2 - 0 +2.7 -12.5 +14.9
  Nov 13, 2019 176   Boston University W 62-47 83%     3 - 0 +11.4 -11.0 +22.9
  Nov 16, 2019 69   @ St. John's W 70-68 35%     4 - 0 +12.5 +1.8 +10.6
  Nov 19, 2019 46   @ Virginia L 55-61 26%     4 - 1 +7.1 +4.9 +1.1
  Nov 23, 2019 350   Central Connecticut St. W 81-49 98%     5 - 1 +13.3 +1.8 +12.7
  Nov 24, 2019 193   Rider L 67-72 79%     5 - 2 -7.0 -8.4 +1.3
  Dec 01, 2019 71   @ Yale L 52-65 35%     5 - 3 -2.6 -9.8 +6.3
  Dec 03, 2019 43   @ Cincinnati L 73-82 25%     5 - 4 +4.5 +11.4 -7.4
  Dec 07, 2019 160   Towson W 55-38 81%     6 - 4 +14.2 -11.3 +28.1
  Dec 18, 2019 84   UNC Greensboro L 53-54 61%     6 - 5 +2.6 -0.8 +3.1
  Dec 20, 2019 252   Lipscomb W 86-63 91%     7 - 5 +15.0 +2.9 +10.9
  Dec 31, 2019 191   George Washington W 76-51 85%     8 - 5 +20.3 +7.3 +15.1
  Jan 02, 2020 201   @ Dartmouth W 77-68 72%     9 - 5 +9.4 +5.4 +3.9
  Jan 08, 2020 151   Stony Brook L 77-81 79%     9 - 6 0 - 1 -5.9 +0.6 -6.3
  Jan 11, 2020 292   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 74-50 85%     10 - 6 1 - 1 +19.6 +2.4 +18.1
  Jan 15, 2020 337   @ Binghamton W 72-53 91%     11 - 6 2 - 1 +10.3 +0.3 +12.3
  Jan 18, 2020 277   Hartford W 74-57 92%     12 - 6 3 - 1 +7.5 +5.8 +3.3
  Jan 22, 2020 335   @ Maine W 59-57 91%     13 - 6 4 - 1 -6.4 -11.0 +4.8
  Jan 25, 2020 289   Umass Lowell W 92-62 93%     14 - 6 5 - 1 +19.8 +12.2 +8.2
  Jan 29, 2020 293   @ New Hampshire W 69-58 85%    
  Feb 01, 2020 229   @ Albany W 68-61 77%    
  Feb 05, 2020 335   Maine W 73-52 98%    
  Feb 08, 2020 277   @ Hartford W 69-59 82%    
  Feb 12, 2020 293   New Hampshire W 72-55 95%    
  Feb 15, 2020 337   Binghamton W 79-58 98%    
  Feb 20, 2020 151   @ Stony Brook W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 22, 2020 292   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 73-56 94%    
  Feb 29, 2020 289   @ Umass Lowell W 78-67 85%    
  Mar 03, 2020 229   Albany W 71-58 90%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 14 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 7.3 23.3 36.3 23.2 91.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 4.0 1.9 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 11.4 25.1 36.3 23.2 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 23.2    23.2
14-2 100.0% 36.3    34.3 2.0
13-3 92.6% 23.3    17.3 5.8 0.1
12-4 63.8% 7.3    3.5 3.3 0.4 0.0
11-5 27.7% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
10-6 6.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 91.0% 91.0 78.5 11.6 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 23.2% 71.9% 71.9% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.2 3.4 11.7 1.3 0.0 6.5 0.2%
14-2 36.3% 66.8% 66.8% 12.5 0.2 13.3 9.7 1.1 12.0
13-3 25.1% 62.7% 62.7% 12.9 0.0 4.2 9.5 2.0 0.0 9.4
12-4 11.4% 55.2% 55.2% 13.2 0.8 3.4 2.0 0.1 5.1
11-5 3.1% 50.4% 50.4% 13.6 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6
10-6 0.7% 45.8% 45.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4
9-7 0.1% 38.0% 38.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-8 0.0% 0.0
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 64.9% 64.9% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.2 3.7 30.0 24.7 5.9 0.4 0.0 35.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 16.7% 100.0% 11.8 0.3 1.2 20.5 69.9 7.9 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.6% 0.4% 12.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%