Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#280
Expected Predictive Rating-8.1#288
Pace64.8#299
Improvement+2.8#57

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#316
First Shot-5.5#320
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#186
Layup/Dunks-2.2#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#170
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#252
Freethrows-1.2#260
Improvement+1.6#87

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#181
First Shot+0.4#142
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#283
Layups/Dunks+2.0#100
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#76
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#251
Freethrows-1.7#276
Improvement+1.2#109
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 21.6% 15.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 45.9% 47.5% 19.5%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 98.8% 92.7%
Conference Champion 44.0% 45.4% 19.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four19.8% 20.1% 15.2%
First Round11.0% 11.2% 7.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Home) - 94.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 413 - 814 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2019 101   @ Mississippi L 55-68 10%     0 - 1 -5.4 -13.3 +7.6
  Nov 19, 2019 90   @ Bradley L 57-69 8%     0 - 2 -3.4 -7.0 +2.8
  Nov 22, 2019 109   @ Northwestern L 59-70 10%     0 - 3 -3.9 -4.7 +0.0
  Nov 27, 2019 214   @ Monmouth L 71-75 27%     0 - 4 -4.3 -3.3 -0.8
  Dec 01, 2019 295   Niagara L 61-65 65%     0 - 5 -14.7 -17.0 +2.1
  Dec 04, 2019 192   @ Southern Illinois L 59-76 23%     0 - 6 -15.8 -4.6 -13.0
  Dec 07, 2019 329   @ Hampton L 53-64 55%     0 - 7 -18.8 -24.2 +4.7
  Dec 15, 2019 98   @ Loyola Chicago L 45-64 10%     0 - 8 -11.3 -19.8 +7.5
  Dec 20, 2019 153   Bowling Green W 72-67 OT 23%     1 - 8 +6.0 -2.5 +8.5
  Dec 21, 2019 228   Drexel L 49-53 40%     1 - 9 -7.9 -20.1 +11.7
  Dec 29, 2019 134   @ Stony Brook L 65-81 14%     1 - 10 -11.2 -5.0 -6.0
  Jan 04, 2020 279   Bethune-Cookman W 85-72 61%     2 - 10 1 - 0 +3.5 +3.7 -0.7
  Jan 06, 2020 334   @ Coppin St. W 82-59 57%     3 - 10 2 - 0 +14.5 +7.2 +7.5
  Jan 11, 2020 349   @ Howard W 71-63 79%     4 - 10 3 - 0 -7.0 -12.0 +4.9
  Jan 18, 2020 352   Maryland Eastern Shore W 65-48 94%    
  Jan 25, 2020 326   South Carolina St. W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 27, 2020 304   Florida A&M W 65-60 69%    
  Feb 01, 2020 288   @ N.C. A&T L 63-65 41%    
  Feb 03, 2020 317   @ NC Central W 62-61 50%    
  Feb 08, 2020 348   Delaware St. W 72-58 90%    
  Feb 15, 2020 310   Morgan St. W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 17, 2020 334   Coppin St. W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 22, 2020 304   @ Florida A&M L 62-63 47%    
  Feb 24, 2020 279   @ Bethune-Cookman L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 29, 2020 349   Howard W 77-63 90%    
  Mar 02, 2020 348   @ Delaware St. W 69-61 76%    
  Mar 05, 2020 310   @ Morgan St. L 68-69 48%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 12 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.4 10.7 14.7 10.5 4.7 1.1 44.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 9.0 9.2 3.0 0.3 0.0 23.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 5.6 6.5 1.1 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 4.9 0.9 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.4 1.1 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.4 7.9 13.4 18.7 20.9 17.7 10.8 4.7 1.1 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
15-1 99.9% 4.7    4.6 0.1
14-2 97.4% 10.5    9.3 1.2 0.0
13-3 82.8% 14.7    9.7 4.6 0.4 0.0
12-4 50.8% 10.7    3.3 5.0 2.0 0.2
11-5 12.7% 2.4    0.2 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 44.0% 44.0 28.1 11.6 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.1% 38.1% 38.1% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.7
15-1 4.7% 38.3% 38.3% 16.0 0.1 1.7 2.9
14-2 10.8% 31.8% 31.8% 16.0 0.0 3.4 7.4
13-3 17.7% 27.7% 27.7% 16.0 4.9 12.8
12-4 20.9% 21.7% 21.7% 16.0 0.0 4.5 16.4
11-5 18.7% 17.9% 17.9% 16.0 3.4 15.4
10-6 13.4% 12.8% 12.8% 16.0 1.7 11.7
9-7 7.9% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.8 7.0
8-8 3.4% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.2 3.1
7-9 1.2% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.1 1.1
6-10 0.3% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-11 0.0% 18.2% 18.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 21.3% 21.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 20.9 78.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 15.5 3.0 48.8 48.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%