North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#284
Expected Predictive Rating-7.2#281
Pace70.9#131
Improvement+1.6#115

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#326
First Shot-4.3#302
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#304
Layup/Dunks-3.3#298
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#195
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#266
Freethrows+1.9#55
Improvement+0.0#167

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#186
First Shot-1.8#224
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#80
Layups/Dunks-0.5#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#276
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#74
Freethrows-2.4#311
Improvement+1.6#81
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 2.9% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 6.8% 14.7% 2.8%
.500 or above in Conference 58.6% 80.0% 47.6%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.7% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.0% 2.3% 1.9%
First Round1.4% 1.7% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NJIT (Away) - 33.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 41 - 10
Quad 411 - 711 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 88   @ South Carolina L 55-77 7%     0 - 1 -12.6 -19.1 +9.2
  Nov 12, 2019 37   @ Indiana L 65-91 4%     0 - 2 -11.6 -3.3 -7.3
  Nov 16, 2019 287   Samford W 61-55 61%     1 - 2 -3.8 -15.9 +12.4
  Nov 19, 2019 142   @ South Dakota St. L 73-78 15%     1 - 3 -0.6 -1.1 +0.4
  Nov 22, 2019 82   @ Louisiana Tech L 61-82 7%     1 - 4 -11.4 -2.6 -10.3
  Nov 27, 2019 352   Mississippi Valley W 73-50 93%     2 - 4 -0.7 -16.0 +14.1
  Nov 30, 2019 313   Morehead St. W 67-57 69%     3 - 4 -2.0 -9.4 +7.7
  Dec 04, 2019 283   @ Troy L 63-71 38%     3 - 5 -11.8 -12.9 +1.3
  Dec 17, 2019 190   @ UAB L 56-63 22%     3 - 6 -5.6 -9.2 +3.0
  Dec 20, 2019 343   @ Alabama A&M L 80-92 66%     3 - 7 -23.1 +1.2 -23.9
  Dec 28, 2019 18   @ Florida St. L 71-88 2%     3 - 8 -0.2 +5.6 -5.2
  Jan 02, 2020 237   Jacksonville W 62-57 52%     4 - 8 1 - 0 -2.3 -15.8 +13.1
  Jan 04, 2020 172   North Florida L 65-81 37%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -19.4 -13.7 -5.7
  Jan 09, 2020 85   @ Liberty L 52-63 7%     4 - 10 1 - 2 -1.6 -8.7 +6.0
  Jan 11, 2020 252   @ Lipscomb W 82-69 32%     5 - 10 2 - 2 +10.8 +6.5 +4.4
  Jan 16, 2020 303   Stetson L 49-54 67%     5 - 11 2 - 3 -16.3 -26.4 +9.8
  Jan 18, 2020 310   Florida Gulf Coast W 70-65 68%     6 - 11 3 - 3 -6.6 -6.0 -0.7
  Jan 23, 2020 346   @ Kennesaw St. W 78-58 74%     7 - 11 4 - 3 +6.6 -7.3 +11.7
  Jan 30, 2020 256   @ NJIT L 64-68 34%    
  Feb 01, 2020 237   @ Jacksonville L 60-65 30%    
  Feb 06, 2020 252   Lipscomb W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 08, 2020 85   Liberty L 54-64 16%    
  Feb 13, 2020 303   @ Stetson L 62-63 45%    
  Feb 15, 2020 172   @ North Florida L 70-79 19%    
  Feb 20, 2020 346   Kennesaw St. W 72-60 88%    
  Feb 27, 2020 256   NJIT W 66-65 55%    
  Feb 29, 2020 310   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 63-64 46%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 1st
2nd 0.6 2.7 2.3 0.4 5.9 2nd
3rd 1.6 10.2 6.5 1.1 0.0 19.5 3rd
4th 0.4 9.6 7.6 0.5 18.1 4th
5th 0.1 5.5 11.2 0.9 17.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 12.6 2.6 17.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 7.3 4.7 0.1 13.1 7th
8th 0.4 3.2 3.7 0.3 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.5 4.3 13.2 23.5 25.1 19.3 9.7 3.7 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-4 46.7% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1
11-5 7.4% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.1% 0.1
12-4 0.7% 12.1% 12.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-5 3.7% 6.3% 6.3% 15.8 0.0 0.2 3.4
10-6 9.7% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 9.4
9-7 19.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.6 18.6
8-8 25.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.5 24.6
7-9 23.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.4 23.1
6-10 13.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.1
5-11 4.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.2
4-12 0.5% 0.5
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 2.2 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%