North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#172
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#173
Pace74.3#64
Improvement-0.2#190

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#60
First Shot+3.4#73
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#117
Layup/Dunks-2.0#258
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.1#1
Freethrows-1.2#267
Improvement+4.0#18

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#299
First Shot-3.2#276
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#270
Layups/Dunks-3.0#293
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#12
Freethrows+1.0#116
Improvement-4.1#341
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.9% 19.7% 14.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.5 15.1
.500 or above 89.7% 96.8% 86.3%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.9% 98.5%
Conference Champion 8.2% 21.3% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 0.4% 1.7%
First Round15.4% 19.6% 13.4%
Second Round0.9% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Home) - 32.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 7
Quad 20 - 11 - 8
Quad 31 - 12 - 9
Quad 416 - 418 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 19   @ Florida L 59-74 7%     0 - 1 +1.7 -4.0 +5.3
  Nov 11, 2019 141   Georgia Southern W 80-77 55%     1 - 1 +1.7 -7.5 +8.7
  Nov 14, 2019 263   Southern Miss W 66-63 79%     2 - 1 -5.6 -12.6 +6.9
  Nov 21, 2019 16   @ Iowa L 68-83 6%     2 - 2 +2.2 +2.4 -0.8
  Nov 24, 2019 33   @ Creighton L 67-76 9%     2 - 3 +5.6 -0.9 +6.5
  Nov 28, 2019 239   LIU Brooklyn W 95-92 66%     3 - 3 -1.4 +1.2 -3.2
  Nov 29, 2019 247   Tennessee St. L 73-81 68%     3 - 4 -12.9 -7.1 -5.4
  Dec 02, 2019 341   High Point W 93-70 92%     4 - 4 +7.1 +12.4 -5.1
  Dec 07, 2019 171   @ Austin Peay L 83-90 39%     4 - 5 -4.2 +4.7 -8.7
  Dec 14, 2019 263   @ Southern Miss W 72-69 61%     5 - 5 +0.1 -4.5 +4.5
  Dec 17, 2019 15   @ Florida St. L 81-98 6%     5 - 6 +0.3 +13.4 -12.2
  Dec 21, 2019 51   @ Syracuse L 70-82 12%     5 - 7 +0.5 +12.9 -14.3
  Dec 30, 2019 10   @ Dayton L 59-77 5%     5 - 8 +0.4 -8.5 +9.4
  Jan 02, 2020 345   @ Kennesaw St. W 76-57 87%     6 - 8 1 - 0 +6.8 +3.4 +4.3
  Jan 04, 2020 289   @ North Alabama W 81-65 67%     7 - 8 2 - 0 +11.4 +8.4 +3.0
  Jan 09, 2020 304   Florida Gulf Coast W 89-74 85%     8 - 8 3 - 0 +3.7 +14.4 -10.7
  Jan 11, 2020 259   NJIT L 66-78 78%     8 - 9 3 - 1 -20.3 -1.4 -20.6
  Jan 16, 2020 254   @ Jacksonville W 75-68 58%     9 - 9 4 - 1 +4.7 +6.7 -1.9
  Jan 23, 2020 65   Liberty L 65-70 32%    
  Jan 25, 2020 255   @ Lipscomb W 81-79 59%    
  Jan 30, 2020 316   Stetson W 77-65 87%    
  Feb 01, 2020 345   Kennesaw St. W 83-65 95%    
  Feb 06, 2020 259   @ NJIT W 76-74 59%    
  Feb 08, 2020 304   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 13, 2020 254   Jacksonville W 74-66 78%    
  Feb 15, 2020 289   North Alabama W 80-70 83%    
  Feb 20, 2020 65   @ Liberty L 62-73 16%    
  Feb 22, 2020 255   Lipscomb W 84-76 78%    
  Feb 27, 2020 316   @ Stetson W 74-68 72%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.8 0.8 8.2 1st
2nd 0.0 2.3 11.9 22.1 22.3 13.1 1.9 73.6 2nd
3rd 0.6 4.9 5.1 2.0 0.3 12.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 1.6 0.2 3.3 4th
5th 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.1 8.8 17.2 24.2 23.3 15.9 5.6 0.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
14-2 66.9% 3.8    1.6 2.1
13-3 17.6% 2.8    0.8 2.0 0.0
12-4 3.1% 0.7    0.1 0.6 0.0
11-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 3.4 4.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.8% 30.6% 30.6% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
14-2 5.6% 27.5% 27.5% 13.8 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.1
13-3 15.9% 21.1% 21.1% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.4 0.1 12.5
12-4 23.3% 17.8% 17.8% 14.9 0.1 1.0 2.4 0.7 19.2
11-5 24.2% 14.5% 14.5% 15.3 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.2 20.7
10-6 17.2% 11.3% 11.3% 15.6 0.0 0.8 1.1 15.2
9-7 8.8% 9.8% 9.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 8.0
8-8 3.1% 7.2% 7.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.8
7-9 0.9% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
6-10 0.2% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 7.0 4.1 84.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.8 0.8 37.2 48.1 12.4 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%