San Jose St.
Mountain West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#287
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#235
Pace76.5#33
Improvement+4.5#21

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#272
First Shot-3.5#288
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#152
Layup/Dunks-1.6#237
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#324
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#134
Freethrows+0.4#145
Improvement+4.5#13

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#294
First Shot-1.8#225
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#335
Layups/Dunks-4.5#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#133
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#148
Freethrows+1.0#115
Improvement+0.1#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 2.0% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.7% 5.9% 16.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 10.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 81 - 11
Quad 34 - 75 - 19
Quad 43 - 47 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 143   @ Hofstra W 79-71 14%     1 - 0 +12.2 +5.2 +6.9
  Nov 10, 2019 277   Portland L 57-72 57%     1 - 1 -24.2 -21.2 -2.5
  Nov 14, 2019 11   @ Arizona L 39-87 2%     1 - 2 -30.0 -27.5 -0.9
  Nov 20, 2019 301   Grambling St. W 83-76 65%     2 - 2 -4.3 -3.7 -1.5
  Nov 23, 2019 212   Portland St. L 76-91 44%     2 - 3 -20.9 -14.2 -4.7
  Nov 27, 2019 74   Oregon St. L 48-83 9%     2 - 4 -27.8 -24.2 -4.0
  Dec 01, 2019 125   @ UCLA L 64-93 12%     2 - 5 -23.4 -14.3 -6.0
  Dec 04, 2019 57   Utah St. L 59-71 12%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -6.4 -7.4 +0.3
  Dec 08, 2019 12   @ San Diego St. L 57-59 2%     2 - 7 0 - 2 +15.7 +2.6 +12.9
  Dec 14, 2019 44   Stanford L 58-78 9%     2 - 8 -12.2 -12.2 +1.6
  Dec 18, 2019 140   @ Santa Clara L 84-89 14%     2 - 9 -0.5 +3.8 -3.8
  Dec 22, 2019 256   UC Riverside L 65-80 53%     2 - 10 -23.2 -11.3 -11.7
  Dec 28, 2019 147   Pepperdine W 83-68 29%     3 - 10 +13.3 +1.7 +10.8
  Jan 01, 2020 123   New Mexico W 88-85 24%     4 - 10 1 - 2 +3.0 +3.0 -0.3
  Jan 04, 2020 131   @ Fresno St. L 64-79 13%     4 - 11 1 - 3 -9.9 -1.4 -9.7
  Jan 08, 2020 100   Nevada W 70-68 19%     5 - 11 2 - 3 +3.9 -4.9 +8.7
  Jan 11, 2020 107   Colorado St. L 70-81 20%     5 - 12 2 - 4 -9.6 -6.4 -2.6
  Jan 15, 2020 124   @ UNLV L 87-98 12%     5 - 13 2 - 5 -5.4 +9.0 -13.5
  Jan 21, 2020 123   @ New Mexico L 75-88 11%    
  Jan 25, 2020 160   Air Force L 76-81 32%    
  Jan 29, 2020 108   @ Boise St. L 69-83 9%    
  Feb 01, 2020 281   Wyoming W 68-66 59%    
  Feb 08, 2020 100   @ Nevada L 68-83 8%    
  Feb 12, 2020 131   Fresno St. L 65-72 27%    
  Feb 15, 2020 160   @ Air Force L 73-84 16%    
  Feb 19, 2020 108   Boise St. L 72-81 22%    
  Feb 22, 2020 107   @ Colorado St. L 67-81 9%    
  Feb 25, 2020 57   @ Utah St. L 64-83 4%    
  Feb 29, 2020 124   UNLV L 70-77 25%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 4 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.7 5.9 1.5 0.0 13.4 9th
10th 5.7 21.4 27.3 16.3 4.0 0.2 74.9 10th
11th 3.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 6.2 11th
Total 8.9 23.9 29.0 21.1 11.1 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.3% 0.3
8-10 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
7-11 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.3
6-12 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.1
5-13 21.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.1
4-14 29.0% 29.0
3-15 23.9% 23.9
2-16 8.9% 8.9
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.9%