UC Irvine
Big West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#115
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#164
Pace68.8#192
Improvement-0.1#189

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#169
First Shot-1.2#217
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#59
Layup/Dunks+0.6#146
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#300
Freethrows+0.1#158
Improvement-0.7#218

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#91
First Shot+5.4#39
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#340
Layups/Dunks+8.1#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#119
Freethrows-1.7#280
Improvement+0.6#141
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.7% 42.8% 40.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 97.6% 98.0% 91.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.7% 97.8%
Conference Champion 70.9% 71.9% 52.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 1.4%
First Round42.5% 42.6% 40.6%
Second Round5.5% 5.5% 4.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.1% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 94.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 47 - 8
Quad 413 - 420 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 190   @ San Diego W 76-73 59%     1 - 0 +4.1 +2.9 +1.1
  Nov 09, 2019 141   @ Pepperdine L 73-77 46%     1 - 1 +0.5 -0.6 +1.0
  Nov 15, 2019 108   @ Boise St. W 69-60 35%     2 - 1 +16.4 -4.9 +20.8
  Nov 18, 2019 23   @ Colorado L 53-69 12%     2 - 2 -0.1 -8.2 +7.6
  Nov 21, 2019 57   @ TCU L 58-59 22%     2 - 3 +10.5 -4.5 +15.0
  Nov 24, 2019 267   Detroit Mercy L 74-86 81%     2 - 4 -17.8 -9.4 -7.4
  Nov 26, 2019 263   Louisiana W 92-67 80%     3 - 4 +19.3 +12.3 +6.0
  Nov 30, 2019 226   Eastern Michigan W 77-56 83%     4 - 4 +14.3 +0.6 +11.8
  Dec 07, 2019 175   California Baptist L 60-68 75%     4 - 5 -11.5 -14.6 +2.8
  Dec 16, 2019 113   Kent St. W 74-68 49%     5 - 5 +9.6 -0.5 +9.8
  Dec 17, 2019 150   @ UTEP L 61-67 48%     5 - 6 -2.2 -3.2 +0.8
  Dec 20, 2019 198   @ Illinois-Chicago L 67-76 62%     5 - 7 -8.6 -6.7 -1.6
  Dec 28, 2019 159   Pacific W 69-56 72%     6 - 7 +10.4 +1.0 +10.3
  Jan 04, 2020 98   @ Harvard L 73-77 33%     6 - 8 +4.0 +5.6 -1.7
  Jan 11, 2020 172   Hawaii W 74-60 74%     7 - 8 1 - 0 +10.6 +5.6 +6.1
  Jan 15, 2020 265   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 74-61 73%     8 - 8 2 - 0 +10.2 +3.5 +6.9
  Jan 18, 2020 237   UC Riverside W 69-53 84%     9 - 8 3 - 0 +8.7 -0.4 +10.4
  Jan 22, 2020 292   @ Long Beach St. L 56-63 78%     9 - 9 3 - 1 -11.7 -17.4 +5.6
  Jan 25, 2020 331   Cal Poly W 75-58 95%    
  Jan 30, 2020 252   @ UC Davis W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 01, 2020 265   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-60 88%    
  Feb 06, 2020 252   UC Davis W 73-62 86%    
  Feb 08, 2020 178   @ UC Santa Barbara W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 12, 2020 237   @ UC Riverside W 65-60 67%    
  Feb 16, 2020 172   @ Hawaii W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 19, 2020 292   Long Beach St. W 78-64 91%    
  Feb 22, 2020 254   @ Cal St. Northridge W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 27, 2020 331   @ Cal Poly W 72-61 85%    
  Feb 29, 2020 178   UC Santa Barbara W 70-63 75%    
  Mar 04, 2020 254   Cal St. Northridge W 81-69 86%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 8.1 18.0 22.1 16.1 5.4 70.9 1st
2nd 0.8 5.0 8.1 5.2 1.6 0.1 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.9 9.1 16.9 23.3 23.7 16.2 5.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 5.4    5.4
14-2 99.3% 16.1    15.5 0.6
13-3 93.1% 22.1    19.0 3.1 0.0
12-4 77.5% 18.0    12.2 5.6 0.2
11-5 47.8% 8.1    2.8 4.0 1.2 0.1
10-6 13.6% 1.2    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 70.9% 70.9 55.0 13.7 1.9 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 5.4% 56.2% 56.2% 12.7 0.0 1.2 1.5 0.3 2.4
14-2 16.2% 52.9% 52.9% 13.6 0.5 3.4 4.0 0.7 7.7
13-3 23.7% 48.4% 48.4% 14.1 0.1 2.1 6.1 3.1 0.1 12.3
12-4 23.3% 40.4% 40.4% 14.5 0.0 0.5 4.1 4.3 0.5 13.9
11-5 16.9% 36.8% 36.8% 14.8 0.1 1.6 3.6 0.9 10.7
10-6 9.1% 28.4% 28.4% 15.3 0.3 1.4 0.9 6.5
9-7 3.9% 28.8% 28.8% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.6 2.8
8-8 1.2% 25.4% 25.4% 15.8 0.1 0.2 0.9
7-9 0.3% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 42.7% 42.7% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 1.8 7.7 16.3 13.6 3.3 57.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.0% 100.0% 12.7 1.0 40.2 50.5 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%