Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#42
Expected Predictive Rating+9.8#49
Pace72.1#98
Improvement-0.4#197

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#95
First Shot+0.5#152
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#38
Layup/Dunks+2.4#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#129
Freethrows+0.4#143
Improvement-0.6#220

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#17
First Shot+6.0#31
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#40
Layups/Dunks+0.8#136
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#25
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#71
Freethrows+0.4#158
Improvement+0.3#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.3% 4.3% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.2% 52.5% 36.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.6% 42.0% 26.0%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 10.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.6% 97.1%
Conference Champion 4.8% 6.0% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.6% 13.1% 11.4%
First Round42.0% 46.2% 30.5%
Second Round20.2% 22.3% 14.5%
Sweet Sixteen7.1% 7.9% 5.0%
Elite Eight2.7% 3.1% 1.8%
Final Four0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Home) - 73.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 24 - 36 - 8
Quad 39 - 115 - 9
Quad 49 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 211   St. Francis (PA) W 72-58 93%     1 - 0 +8.0 -12.9 +19.7
  Nov 08, 2019 87   North Texas W 59-56 75%     2 - 0 +6.6 -4.8 +11.8
  Nov 13, 2019 32   LSU W 84-82 56%     3 - 0 +11.3 +2.2 +8.9
  Nov 17, 2019 232   Jacksonville St. W 93-65 94%     4 - 0 +21.1 +8.5 +9.6
  Nov 23, 2019 310   Florida Gulf Coast W 78-48 97%     5 - 0 +18.4 +0.7 +17.0
  Nov 25, 2019 341   Alabama St. W 78-62 98%     6 - 0 -0.1 +0.2 +0.1
  Nov 29, 2019 19   Purdue L 56-59 39%     6 - 1 +10.5 -6.0 +16.4
  Nov 30, 2019 45   Tennessee L 69-72 51%     6 - 2 +7.5 +8.0 -0.7
  Dec 07, 2019 164   Old Dominion W 69-57 89%     7 - 2 +9.1 -1.4 +10.5
  Dec 15, 2019 145   Missouri St. W 61-51 87%     8 - 2 +8.4 -7.6 +16.6
  Dec 18, 2019 133   @ College of Charleston W 76-71 72%     9 - 2 +9.8 +6.4 +3.6
  Dec 21, 2019 40   @ Wichita St. L 63-73 38%     9 - 3 +3.9 -2.5 +6.9
  Dec 29, 2019 282   Loyola Maryland W 85-51 96%     10 - 3 +24.4 +6.9 +18.2
  Jan 02, 2020 259   Fordham W 64-46 95%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +9.6 -1.0 +12.6
  Jan 05, 2020 153   @ George Mason W 72-59 76%     12 - 3 2 - 0 +16.5 +0.4 +16.0
  Jan 11, 2020 58   Rhode Island L 56-65 69%     12 - 4 2 - 1 -3.5 -13.2 +9.8
  Jan 14, 2020 9   @ Dayton L 65-79 22%     12 - 5 2 - 2 +5.0 -2.3 +7.5
  Jan 18, 2020 118   St. Bonaventure W 91-63 84%     13 - 5 3 - 2 +28.2 +15.1 +12.0
  Jan 21, 2020 249   @ Saint Joseph's W 73-60 88%     14 - 5 4 - 2 +10.9 -5.2 +15.6
  Jan 25, 2020 180   @ La Salle W 76-65 79%     15 - 5 5 - 2 +13.1 +7.4 +5.9
  Jan 28, 2020 76   Richmond W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 31, 2020 58   @ Rhode Island L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 07, 2020 92   Davidson W 71-63 77%    
  Feb 12, 2020 153   George Mason W 74-61 89%    
  Feb 15, 2020 76   @ Richmond W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 18, 2020 9   Dayton L 70-72 41%    
  Feb 21, 2020 95   @ Saint Louis W 67-65 60%    
  Feb 26, 2020 194   @ Massachusetts W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 29, 2020 191   George Washington W 74-59 93%    
  Mar 03, 2020 110   Duquesne W 71-62 80%    
  Mar 06, 2020 92   @ Davidson W 68-66 57%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.3 1.4 4.8 1st
2nd 0.0 2.2 10.3 14.9 6.0 0.5 34.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 8.2 10.8 2.9 0.0 22.9 3rd
4th 0.4 4.6 9.2 2.3 0.1 16.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 6.0 2.5 0.1 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.0 2.4 0.1 6.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.2 1.9 0.4 3.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 7.2 14.4 22.1 23.5 19.0 8.3 2.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 72.6% 1.4    0.7 0.7
15-3 27.3% 2.3    0.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 5.7% 1.1    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1
13-5 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 1.6 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.0% 97.5% 33.0% 64.5% 5.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.2%
15-3 8.3% 91.6% 26.8% 64.8% 8.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 88.6%
14-4 19.0% 75.8% 23.0% 52.8% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.5 4.0 4.0 0.3 4.6 68.6%
13-5 23.5% 55.4% 18.6% 36.7% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.5 6.4 0.8 10.5 45.1%
12-6 22.1% 32.6% 13.8% 18.8% 10.9 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.5 1.1 14.9 21.8%
11-7 14.4% 20.2% 10.0% 10.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.7 11.5 11.3%
10-8 7.2% 13.4% 9.3% 4.2% 11.3 0.0 0.6 0.4 6.3 4.6%
9-9 2.6% 5.8% 5.4% 0.4% 11.6 0.1 0.1 2.4 0.4%
8-10 0.8% 6.0% 6.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-11 0.2% 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 48.2% 17.0% 31.2% 9.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 2.3 3.8 7.1 10.4 17.7 3.5 51.9 37.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 3.0 7.7 24.6 35.4 27.7 3.1 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 98.1% 5.6 1.9 5.6 16.7 25.9 20.4 16.7 7.4 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 95.7% 6.4 4.3 10.6 10.6 25.5 25.5 8.5 4.3 6.4