Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.2#39
Expected Predictive Rating+15.4#23
Pace76.0#50
Improvement+1.1#49

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#71
First Shot+0.6#144
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#36
Layup/Dunks+0.7#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#212
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#188
Freethrows+1.3#106
Improvement+2.2#3

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#25
First Shot+5.3#48
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#68
Layups/Dunks-0.2#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#82
Freethrows+2.3#67
Improvement-1.1#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.2% 3.2% 1.1%
Top 4 Seed 10.2% 10.4% 3.5%
Top 6 Seed 19.4% 19.7% 7.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.0% 65.5% 45.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.6% 50.2% 27.5%
Average Seed 8.1 8.1 9.2
.500 or above 99.3% 99.4% 94.3%
.500 or above in Conference 96.2% 96.3% 89.1%
Conference Champion 39.9% 40.3% 25.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four9.4% 9.4% 8.5%
First Round60.3% 60.8% 40.6%
Second Round33.8% 34.2% 17.6%
Sweet Sixteen13.6% 13.8% 7.3%
Elite Eight5.4% 5.5% 1.7%
Final Four2.1% 2.2% 0.3%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 97.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 3
Quad 25 - 37 - 6
Quad 39 - 217 - 7
Quad 49 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 216   St. Francis (PA) W 72-58 94%     1 - 0 +8.0 -13.1 +20.0
  Nov 08, 2019 156   North Texas W 59-56 90%     2 - 0 +0.0 -4.5 +4.9
  Nov 13, 2019 34   LSU W 84-82 60%     3 - 0 +10.6 +3.6 +6.7
  Nov 17, 2019 228   Jacksonville St. W 93-65 94%     4 - 0 +21.5 +7.3 +11.1
  Nov 23, 2019 290   Florida Gulf Coast W 82-61 98%    
  Nov 25, 2019 320   Alabama St. W 83-58 99%    
  Nov 29, 2019 17   Purdue L 68-71 40%    
  Nov 30, 2019 24   Florida St. L 71-73 45%    
  Dec 07, 2019 114   Old Dominion W 70-59 84%    
  Dec 15, 2019 120   Missouri St. W 74-62 85%    
  Dec 18, 2019 140   @ College of Charleston W 74-67 72%    
  Dec 21, 2019 58   @ Wichita St. L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 29, 2019 231   Loyola Maryland W 85-67 95%    
  Jan 02, 2020 232   Fordham W 73-55 94%    
  Jan 05, 2020 142   @ George Mason W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 11, 2020 75   Rhode Island W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 14, 2020 64   @ Dayton L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 18, 2020 143   St. Bonaventure W 74-61 87%    
  Jan 21, 2020 189   @ Saint Joseph's W 88-78 80%    
  Jan 25, 2020 206   @ La Salle W 76-66 82%    
  Jan 28, 2020 105   Richmond W 80-70 82%    
  Jan 31, 2020 75   @ Rhode Island W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 07, 2020 70   Davidson W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 12, 2020 142   George Mason W 78-65 87%    
  Feb 15, 2020 105   @ Richmond W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 18, 2020 64   Dayton W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 21, 2020 116   @ Saint Louis W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 26, 2020 168   @ Massachusetts W 77-68 77%    
  Feb 29, 2020 258   George Washington W 79-60 95%    
  Mar 03, 2020 97   Duquesne W 77-68 78%    
  Mar 06, 2020 70   @ Davidson W 70-69 52%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.8 11.3 11.6 6.9 2.2 39.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 6.3 7.9 3.6 0.5 0.0 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 4.8 5.3 1.4 0.1 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.9 1.0 0.1 8.8 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 3.2 1.0 0.1 6.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 2.2 0.9 0.1 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 2.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.2 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.2 3.6 5.6 9.0 12.0 14.6 15.1 15.0 12.2 6.9 2.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.2    2.2
17-1 99.9% 6.9    6.8 0.2
16-2 95.5% 11.6    9.9 1.7 0.0
15-3 75.3% 11.3    7.4 3.5 0.4
14-4 38.5% 5.8    2.3 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.2% 1.9    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.9% 39.9 28.8 8.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.2% 99.6% 64.3% 35.4% 2.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
17-1 6.9% 98.1% 55.7% 42.3% 4.2 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 95.6%
16-2 12.2% 95.8% 47.1% 48.7% 6.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.5 92.0%
15-3 15.0% 90.1% 40.9% 49.2% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.5 0.2 1.5 83.3%
14-4 15.1% 80.1% 33.9% 46.2% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.4 2.6 3.1 0.7 0.0 3.0 69.9%
13-5 14.6% 63.3% 27.3% 36.0% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.5 1.2 0.0 5.4 49.5%
12-6 12.0% 46.0% 20.2% 25.9% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 1.3 0.1 6.5 32.4%
11-7 9.0% 28.6% 12.7% 15.9% 11.1 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.0 6.4 18.2%
10-8 5.6% 16.8% 8.1% 8.7% 11.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 4.7 9.4%
9-9 3.6% 9.8% 6.7% 3.1% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.2 3.3%
8-10 2.2% 6.3% 5.7% 0.5% 11.8 0.0 0.1 2.1 0.6%
7-11 0.9% 0.9
6-12 0.4% 2.7% 2.7% 12.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.2% 4.1% 4.1% 12.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 65.0% 30.6% 34.4% 8.1 1.2 2.0 2.7 4.4 4.5 4.7 5.2 5.5 7.5 9.2 13.1 5.0 0.2 35.0 49.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.4 67.7 23.4 9.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.1 26.8 36.6 36.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.7 10.9 32.6 45.7 10.9