Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#72
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#110
Pace68.8#201
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#39
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#125
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.4% 2.8% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.4% 36.0% 22.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.2% 8.4% 2.3%
Average Seed 11.0 10.8 12.0
.500 or above 92.0% 94.5% 80.6%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 95.4% 89.6%
Conference Champion 40.0% 42.5% 28.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 1.3%
First Four2.9% 3.3% 1.2%
First Round32.2% 34.6% 21.5%
Second Round11.1% 12.4% 5.2%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 4.0% 1.5%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Away) - 82.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 23 - 4
Quad 37 - 310 - 7
Quad 48 - 117 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 297   Tennessee Tech W 76-64 94%     1 - 0 +1.2 -1.7 +2.7
  Nov 09, 2019 227   Austin Peay W 97-75 90%     2 - 0 +15.3 +20.3 -4.3
  Nov 15, 2019 276   @ Eastern Kentucky W 89-79 82%    
  Nov 22, 2019 101   Bowling Green W 78-75 59%    
  Nov 29, 2019 3   Louisville L 67-80 13%    
  Dec 03, 2019 102   @ Wright St. L 73-74 49%    
  Dec 07, 2019 31   Arkansas L 75-77 43%    
  Dec 21, 2019 92   @ Rhode Island L 71-73 45%    
  Dec 28, 2019 75   Belmont W 80-77 61%    
  Jan 02, 2020 145   North Texas W 68-59 79%    
  Jan 04, 2020 217   Rice W 84-71 88%    
  Jan 09, 2020 152   @ UAB W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 11, 2020 162   @ Middle Tennessee W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 16, 2020 127   Old Dominion W 68-60 75%    
  Jan 18, 2020 232   Charlotte W 76-62 89%    
  Jan 22, 2020 239   @ Marshall W 85-77 76%    
  Jan 25, 2020 239   Marshall W 88-74 89%    
  Jan 30, 2020 171   @ Florida Atlantic W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 01, 2020 165   @ Florida International W 84-80 64%    
  Feb 06, 2020 89   Louisiana Tech W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 08, 2020 223   Southern Miss W 75-62 88%    
  Feb 13, 2020 129   @ UTEP W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 15, 2020 203   @ Texas San Antonio W 82-76 71%    
Projected Record 16 - 7 10 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.9 8.0 13.8 11.7 4.5 40.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.7 8.1 3.1 0.2 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.4 5.6 1.7 0.1 12.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 5.0 1.5 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.7 3.5 1.8 0.1 6.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 2.1 0.3 4.1 6th
7th 0.5 2.2 0.3 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 0.9 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.3 0.8 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.0 5.6 8.7 13.1 15.7 17.7 17.0 11.9 4.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 4.5    4.5
13-1 98.2% 11.7    10.1 1.6 0.0
12-2 81.4% 13.8    8.6 4.7 0.5 0.0
11-3 44.9% 8.0    2.8 3.4 1.5 0.2 0.0
10-4 11.8% 1.9    0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-5 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 40.0% 40.0 26.3 10.3 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 4.5% 84.7% 59.4% 25.3% 7.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.7 62.3%
13-1 11.9% 65.0% 49.3% 15.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.2 2.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 4.2 30.9%
12-2 17.0% 47.4% 38.4% 8.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 3.0 3.1 0.6 0.1 9.0 14.5%
11-3 17.7% 36.4% 33.7% 2.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.3 4.0%
10-4 15.7% 24.3% 23.6% 0.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 11.9 1.0%
9-5 13.1% 16.3% 16.0% 0.3% 12.8 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 11.0 0.4%
8-6 8.7% 10.2% 10.2% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 7.8
7-7 5.6% 6.4% 6.4% 13.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.3
6-8 3.0% 3.7% 3.7% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
5-9 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
4-10 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 14.0 0.0 0.7
3-11 0.3% 0.3
2-12 0.1% 0.1
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 33.4% 28.3% 5.2% 11.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.6 2.6 7.6 11.1 4.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 66.6 7.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.6 20.7 27.6 27.6 24.1