Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.7#103
Expected Predictive Rating+5.4#97
Pace68.8#198
Improvement+0.6#149

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#58
First Shot+5.5#39
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#259
Layup/Dunks+2.4#83
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#186
Freethrows+3.6#8
Improvement-1.6#261

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#155
First Shot+0.8#138
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#214
Layups/Dunks-0.8#211
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#260
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#136
Freethrows+1.8#66
Improvement+2.2#56
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.9% 21.0% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 29.1% 38.8% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round18.9% 21.0% 15.7%
Second Round3.5% 3.9% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Away) - 59.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 37 - 59 - 9
Quad 49 - 018 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 339   Tennessee Tech W 76-64 96%     1 - 0 -3.4 -3.3 -0.3
  Nov 09, 2019 150   Austin Peay W 97-75 74%     2 - 0 +20.1 +21.9 -1.0
  Nov 15, 2019 301   @ Eastern Kentucky W 79-71 83%     3 - 0 +2.6 -6.5 +8.2
  Nov 22, 2019 147   Bowling Green L 75-77 64%     3 - 1 -0.9 -2.9 +2.2
  Nov 23, 2019 217   Illinois St. W 83-69 78%     4 - 1 +10.7 +19.1 -6.7
  Nov 25, 2019 264   Fordham W 69-64 83%     5 - 1 -0.6 +3.4 -3.6
  Nov 29, 2019 7   Louisville L 54-71 14%     5 - 2 -0.7 -5.1 +2.7
  Dec 03, 2019 105   @ Wright St. L 74-76 39%     5 - 3 +5.5 -2.8 +8.5
  Dec 07, 2019 38   Arkansas W 86-79 OT 36%     6 - 3 +15.5 +5.8 +8.6
  Dec 21, 2019 59   @ Rhode Island L 82-86 OT 26%     6 - 4 +7.3 +3.3 +4.6
  Dec 28, 2019 99   Belmont L 62-79 60%     6 - 5 -14.9 -11.7 -2.9
  Jan 02, 2020 87   North Texas W 93-84 55%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +12.5 +22.6 -9.9
  Jan 04, 2020 244   Rice W 68-61 88%     8 - 5 2 - 0 -0.8 -9.6 +9.0
  Jan 09, 2020 190   @ UAB L 62-72 63%     8 - 6 2 - 1 -8.6 -3.8 -5.5
  Jan 11, 2020 286   @ Middle Tennessee W 69-53 80%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +12.0 -5.9 +18.0
  Jan 16, 2020 163   Old Dominion W 71-69 77%     10 - 6 4 - 1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4
  Jan 18, 2020 155   Charlotte W 80-63 76%     11 - 6 5 - 1 +14.4 +8.4 +5.8
  Jan 22, 2020 157   @ Marshall W 64-60 56%     12 - 6 6 - 1 +7.2 -4.4 +11.7
  Jan 25, 2020 157   Marshall W 91-84 76%     13 - 6 7 - 1 +4.3 +13.5 -9.5
  Jan 30, 2020 186   @ Florida Atlantic W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 01, 2020 166   @ Florida International W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 06, 2020 82   Louisiana Tech W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 08, 2020 251   Southern Miss W 76-63 89%    
  Feb 13, 2020 153   @ UTEP W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 15, 2020 167   @ Texas San Antonio W 81-79 58%    
Projected Record 17 - 8 11 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.8 7.6 14.7 6.1 29.1 1st
2nd 0.8 10.9 18.8 6.1 36.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 7.8 14.1 3.5 25.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 3.9 0.5 5.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 0.4 2.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.2 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.4 3.6 13.0 26.3 29.9 20.8 6.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 6.1    4.1 2.0
12-2 70.8% 14.7    5.9 8.0 0.8
11-3 25.3% 7.6    1.2 3.7 2.4 0.3
10-4 3.0% 0.8    0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 29.1% 29.1 11.2 13.9 3.5 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 6.1% 25.3% 24.5% 0.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.1 4.5 1.0%
12-2 20.8% 24.7% 24.7% 12.3 0.2 3.2 1.6 0.1 15.7
11-3 29.9% 21.2% 21.2% 12.6 0.0 2.9 3.0 0.3 23.6
10-4 26.3% 16.0% 16.0% 12.9 1.1 2.5 0.6 0.0 22.1
9-5 13.0% 11.4% 11.4% 13.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 11.5
8-6 3.6% 4.5% 4.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.5
7-7 0.4% 6.2% 6.2% 14.0 0.0 0.4
6-8
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 18.9% 18.8% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 8.4 8.1 1.6 0.0 81.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 11.7 2.0 2.6 27.2 61.5 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6% 2.3% 11.0 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%
Lose Out 0.2%