Pac-12
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
19 Colorado 95.4%   5   12 - 4 7 - 3 21 - 7 15 - 6 +14.3      +8.1 17 +6.2 34 68.3 221 +14.2 28 +14.4 2
23 USC 93.6%   6   12 - 3 6 - 2 21 - 7 15 - 6 +13.6      +6.6 36 +6.9 25 70.4 162 +13.9 32 +13.5 3
25 UCLA 91.7%   7   12 - 3 8 - 1 19 - 7 15 - 5 +13.0      +9.4 12 +3.6 80 62.8 323 +15.6 18 +19.8 1
26 Oregon 75.3%   8   9 - 3 4 - 2 16 - 8 11 - 7 +12.8      +7.3 27 +5.5 46 70.9 149 +12.4 44 +11.3 6
29 Arizona 0.0%   11 - 3 5 - 3 18 - 7 12 - 7 +12.5      +8.5 15 +4.0 70 70.8 150 +12.6 42 +12.0 5
50 Stanford 52.9%   11   9 - 5 5 - 3 15 - 9 11 - 7 +10.7      +3.4 89 +7.3 18 72.4 105 +12.0 47 +12.2 4
72 Utah 6.6%   6 - 6 3 - 5 10 - 12 7 - 11 +7.8      +4.2 76 +3.6 79 66.2 263 +4.9 105 +4.8 8
74 Arizona St. 6.3%   4 - 7 1 - 4 10 - 15 7 - 12 +7.4      +4.8 70 +2.6 106 79.4 19 +2.8 131 +1.0 10
122 Oregon St. 1.5%   7 - 5 4 - 3 11 - 16 8 - 14 +3.3      +3.5 84 -0.2 176 63.7 313 +4.6 112 +9.3 7
130 California 0.2%   6 - 10 2 - 8 9 - 17 5 - 15 +2.6      +1.9 123 +0.6 155 63.4 315 +1.4 149 -0.2 12
131 Washington St. 0.3%   9 - 6 2 - 6 12 - 14 5 - 13 +2.5      -2.0 222 +4.5 62 70.4 161 +5.1 99 +2.8 9
135 Washington 0.3%   2 - 11 1 - 8 6 - 18 5 - 15 +2.3      +2.0 116 +0.3 165 72.0 118 -3.5 206 +0.4 11






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Colorado 2.0 40.4 31.6 17.7 6.5 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
USC 2.1 40.1 26.6 19.9 8.2 3.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
UCLA 2.1 40.9 27.6 19.6 7.4 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
Oregon 4.9 2.0 5.4 11.3 19.3 24.2 23.3 9.9 3.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Arizona 4.1 3.5 9.8 19.4 29.9 21.4 11.7 3.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Stanford 4.9 0.6 3.8 11.4 23.6 27.2 22.2 7.9 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.2 8.5 21.9 27.7 20.5 10.9 4.9 1.5
Arizona St. 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 4.1 9.4 20.2 22.6 19.0 11.9 7.1 3.1
Oregon St. 7.3 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.5 7.3 14.8 28.8 21.4 12.8 6.2 2.2 0.5
California 10.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.5 9.0 15.8 22.9 27.4 20.5
Washington St. 10.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 4.4 11.0 19.1 25.2 22.5 16.5
Washington 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 7.8 13.1 19.4 24.1 31.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Colorado 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.3 10.8 18.7 23.7 21.8 13.2 4.0
USC 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.0 6.7 12.2 17.5 21.0 18.9 12.2 5.6 1.3
UCLA 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.8 11.9 18.5 22.0 19.8 12.4 5.4 1.2
Oregon 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.6 10.9 16.7 20.4 19.4 13.9 7.6 2.7 0.5
Arizona 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.8 9.5 17.9 23.3 22.5 14.7 5.8 1.2
Stanford 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.8 9.1 16.7 22.4 22.0 15.9 7.0 1.6
Utah 7 - 13 0.8 4.0 10.4 17.8 21.8 20.1 14.3 7.4 2.7 0.6 0.1
Arizona St. 7 - 13 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.1 11.3 16.4 18.9 17.3 12.7 8.2 4.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Oregon St. 8 - 12 1.2 5.0 11.8 17.5 19.7 17.6 13.0 7.6 4.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
California 5 - 15 4.2 14.2 22.6 25.1 18.4 9.9 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.0
Washington St. 5 - 15 2.6 10.7 20.6 24.8 20.8 12.5 5.8 1.8 0.4 0.1
Washington 5 - 15 2.1 8.5 17.7 22.7 21.1 14.8 8.1 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colorado 40.4% 23.8 13.3 2.9 0.3 0.0
USC 40.1% 25.2 11.6 2.9 0.3 0.0
UCLA 40.9% 25.7 12.1 2.8 0.3 0.0
Oregon 2.0% 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
Arizona 3.5% 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
Stanford 0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Utah 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
California
Washington St.
Washington


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colorado 95.4% 26.3% 69.1% 5   2.0 5.7 10.5 13.5 13.3 14.1 11.7 10.1 6.6 4.7 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.6 93.7%
USC 93.6% 22.5% 71.1% 6   1.4 4.2 7.7 11.0 11.9 13.0 12.5 11.3 9.1 6.7 3.6 1.2 0.1 6.4 91.8%
UCLA 91.7% 19.5% 72.2% 7   1.0 3.1 6.1 9.3 11.0 10.8 14.6 13.0 10.6 6.6 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.3 89.7%
Oregon 75.3% 15.9% 59.4% 8   0.4 1.5 3.3 5.0 6.4 7.7 9.6 10.7 10.0 8.7 7.2 4.1 0.6 0.1 24.7 70.7%
Arizona 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stanford 52.9% 9.0% 43.9% 11   0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.3 4.0 6.8 8.8 10.0 9.9 6.7 1.0 0.1 47.1 48.2%
Utah 6.6% 2.5% 4.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 93.4 4.2%
Arizona St. 6.3% 2.7% 3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 93.7 3.7%
Oregon St. 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 98.5 0.7%
California 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Washington St. 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.1%
Washington 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Colorado 95.4% 1.1% 94.8% 65.4% 32.0% 13.8% 5.6% 2.2% 0.7%
USC 93.6% 1.6% 92.9% 60.0% 26.4% 10.7% 4.1% 1.5% 0.4%
UCLA 91.7% 2.1% 90.7% 55.5% 23.1% 9.0% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4%
Oregon 75.3% 5.4% 72.9% 42.8% 17.4% 7.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Arizona 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 52.9% 8.7% 48.6% 22.8% 7.0% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Utah 6.6% 2.0% 5.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 6.3% 1.7% 5.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 1.5% 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.2 0.0 0.9 14.1 48.1 33.7 3.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.1 0.0 1.2 17.4 50.6 28.7 2.1 0.0
2nd Round 98.5% 2.5 1.5 13.0 35.0 35.8 13.1 1.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 73.9% 1.1 26.1 45.7 23.5 4.3 0.4
Elite Eight 38.1% 0.4 61.9 32.8 5.0 0.3
Final Four 16.2% 0.2 83.8 15.4 0.8 0.0
Final Game 6.1% 0.1 93.9 6.0 0.1
Champion 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8