Stanford
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.4#52
Expected Predictive Rating+10.6#56
Pace73.2#91
Improvement-3.6#330

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#86
First Shot+2.9#98
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#157
Layup/Dunks+7.2#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#304
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#303
Freethrows+2.9#27
Improvement-0.6#215

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#19
First Shot+7.6#10
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#205
Layups/Dunks+4.2#49
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#60
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#209
Freethrows+2.3#46
Improvement-3.1#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.9% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 4.4% 8.0% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.7% 58.5% 33.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.6% 55.6% 30.1%
Average Seed 9.4 9.0 10.0
.500 or above 92.5% 97.1% 88.7%
.500 or above in Conference 80.6% 91.1% 71.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
First Round40.6% 54.5% 29.0%
Second Round19.0% 25.8% 13.2%
Sweet Sixteen5.7% 7.6% 4.1%
Elite Eight2.0% 2.6% 1.5%
Final Four0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: USC (Home) - 45.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 6
Quad 22 - 35 - 9
Quad 36 - 211 - 11
Quad 45 - 016 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 30, 2020 13   Alabama W 82-64 30%     1 - 0 +33.9 +4.0 +27.1
  Dec 01, 2020 32   North Carolina L 63-67 43%     1 - 1 +8.1 -3.8 +12.0
  Dec 02, 2020 30   Indiana L 63-79 43%     1 - 2 -3.7 -4.0 +0.6
  Dec 06, 2020 315   @ N.C. A&T W 78-46 95%     2 - 2 +23.3 -3.0 +24.8
  Dec 15, 2020 267   @ Cal St. Northridge W 82-71 91%     3 - 2 +6.3 +4.2 +2.1
  Dec 19, 2020 28   Arizona W 78-75 48%     4 - 2 1 - 0 +13.9 +9.5 +4.5
  Dec 21, 2020 149   Cal St. Bakersfield W 63-50 85%     5 - 2 +12.2 -9.5 +21.6
  Jan 02, 2021 21   @ Oregon L 56-73 29%     5 - 3 1 - 1 -1.0 -14.0 +14.2
  Jan 04, 2021 153   @ Oregon St. W 81-71 78%     6 - 3 2 - 1 +12.3 +9.0 +3.5
  Jan 07, 2021 141   Washington W 91-75 84%     7 - 3 3 - 1 +15.8 +3.4 +9.8
  Jan 09, 2021 127   Washington St. W 75-60 80%     8 - 3 4 - 1 +16.4 +9.0 +7.9
  Jan 14, 2021 75   @ Utah L 65-79 56%     8 - 4 4 - 2 -5.1 -4.4 -0.6
  Jan 16, 2021 15   @ Colorado L 64-77 26%     8 - 5 4 - 3 +4.2 -1.1 +5.5
  Jan 21, 2021 20   USC L 70-72 46%    
  Jan 23, 2021 25   UCLA L 70-71 50%    
  Jan 28, 2021 28   @ Arizona L 71-75 32%    
  Jan 30, 2021 78   @ Arizona St. W 77-75 51%    
  Feb 04, 2021 136   @ California W 71-64 69%    
  Feb 11, 2021 15   Colorado L 68-71 42%    
  Feb 13, 2021 75   Utah W 72-67 72%    
  Feb 18, 2021 141   @ Washington W 75-68 70%    
  Feb 21, 2021 127   @ Washington St. W 71-65 65%    
  Feb 25, 2021 21   Oregon L 71-73 47%    
  Feb 27, 2021 153   Oregon St. W 76-65 87%    
  Mar 06, 2021 136   California W 73-63 85%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 11 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.2 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.2 1.2 0.0 7.6 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 7.2 8.4 3.1 0.2 21.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.9 9.0 9.6 2.9 0.1 26.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 7.1 11.7 7.7 2.4 0.2 31.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.0 1.3 0.2 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.3 2.3 8th
9th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.5 1.9 6.2 10.9 17.1 19.0 19.7 14.3 7.5 2.7 0.3 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 24.4% 0.1    0.1
15-5 3.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
15-5 2.7% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 6.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.5% 96.0% 11.8% 84.2% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.3 95.5%
13-7 14.3% 84.3% 8.2% 76.2% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.2 3.1 2.7 1.8 0.7 0.0 2.2 82.9%
12-8 19.7% 65.1% 6.0% 59.1% 10.2 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.1 3.5 3.3 2.1 0.1 6.9 62.9%
11-9 19.0% 35.3% 3.8% 31.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.1 2.2 0.4 12.3 32.8%
10-10 17.1% 13.3% 3.0% 10.3% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 14.8 10.6%
9-11 10.9% 4.4% 2.2% 2.2% 11.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 10.4 2.2%
8-12 6.2% 1.6% 1.6% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.1
7-13 1.9% 1.0% 1.0% 14.0 0.0 1.9
6-14 0.5% 0.5
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 44.7% 5.3% 39.4% 9.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.3 5.8 7.5 8.2 8.2 6.1 1.1 0.1 55.3 41.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.2 25.3 25.3 49.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.3 67.8 32.2