Colorado
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#19
Expected Predictive Rating+14.2#30
Pace68.2#216
Improvement-2.2#280

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#19
First Shot+6.4#33
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#69
Layup/Dunks+0.2#162
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#52
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#135
Freethrows+2.5#27
Improvement+0.4#140

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#34
First Shot+5.1#42
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#91
Layups/Dunks+1.5#128
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#190
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#112
Freethrows+2.0#59
Improvement-2.5#312
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.9% 2.1% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 7.6% 8.1% 1.6%
Top 4 Seed 31.1% 32.4% 15.0%
Top 6 Seed 58.2% 59.9% 37.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.0% 95.5% 88.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.1% 93.8% 84.9%
Average Seed 5.8 5.8 7.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 99.9% 99.7%
Conference Champion 56.3% 56.8% 49.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 2.3%
First Round94.5% 95.1% 87.1%
Second Round65.2% 66.2% 52.5%
Sweet Sixteen31.8% 32.5% 23.2%
Elite Eight13.6% 13.9% 9.9%
Final Four5.4% 5.6% 3.9%
Championship Game2.0% 2.1% 1.2%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.1%

Next Game: Washington St. (Home) - 92.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 5
Quad 25 - 19 - 6
Quad 310 - 218 - 8
Quad 44 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 168   South Dakota W 84-61 91%     1 - 0 +22.2 +8.4 +13.5
  Nov 27, 2020 153   @ Kansas St. W 76-58 87%     2 - 0 +20.2 +9.9 +11.4
  Dec 08, 2020 20   @ Tennessee L 47-56 44%     2 - 1 +7.0 -11.0 +17.2
  Dec 14, 2020 204   Northern Colorado W 81-45 95%     3 - 1 +31.3 +5.3 +25.5
  Dec 16, 2020 263   Nebraska Omaha W 91-49 97%     4 - 1 +34.0 +10.6 +21.5
  Dec 20, 2020 129   Washington W 92-69 86%     5 - 1 1 - 0 +25.8 +20.0 +6.0
  Dec 22, 2020 142   Grand Canyon W 74-64 88%     6 - 1 +11.4 +9.3 +3.3
  Dec 28, 2020 26   @ Arizona L 74-88 49%     6 - 2 1 - 1 +0.6 +9.4 -9.3
  Dec 31, 2020 21   @ USC W 72-62 47%     7 - 2 2 - 1 +25.3 +9.4 +16.2
  Jan 02, 2021 25   @ UCLA L 62-65 49%     7 - 3 2 - 2 +11.8 -0.4 +11.9
  Jan 07, 2021 29   Oregon W 79-72 63%     8 - 3 3 - 2 +18.1 +9.3 +8.6
  Jan 11, 2021 78   @ Utah W 65-58 70%     9 - 3 4 - 2 +16.0 -1.5 +17.7
  Jan 14, 2021 131   California W 89-60 89%     10 - 3 5 - 2 +29.9 +18.8 +12.0
  Jan 16, 2021 51   Stanford W 77-64 70%     11 - 3 6 - 2 +22.0 +9.5 +12.3
  Jan 20, 2021 129   @ Washington L 80-84 82%     11 - 4 6 - 3 +0.5 +11.9 -11.6
  Jan 23, 2021 135   @ Washington St. W 70-59 83%     12 - 4 7 - 3 +15.2 +8.0 +8.0
  Jan 27, 2021 135   Washington St. W 75-61 93%    
  Jan 30, 2021 78   Utah W 74-65 83%    
  Feb 06, 2021 26   Arizona W 75-72 66%    
  Feb 11, 2021 51   @ Stanford W 71-69 53%    
  Feb 13, 2021 131   California W 75-61 92%    
  Feb 18, 2021 29   @ Oregon L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 20, 2021 123   @ Oregon St. W 74-65 77%    
  Feb 27, 2021 25   UCLA W 72-69 66%    
  Mar 08, 2021 123   Oregon St. W 76-63 90%    
  Mar 08, 2021 84   Arizona St. W 81-72 82%    
  Mar 09, 2021 123   @ Oregon St. W 74-65 77%    
  Mar 09, 2021 21   USC W 73-70 64%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 15 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 4.7 15.3 19.0 13.0 4.0 56.3 1st
2nd 0.2 3.2 10.6 9.5 2.0 0.1 25.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.6 3.5 0.2 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.7 0.1 4.7 4th
5th 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.8 10.9 18.9 24.9 21.0 13.1 4.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 4.0    4.0
17-3 99.5% 13.0    12.3 0.7
16-4 90.6% 19.0    13.9 5.0 0.2
15-5 61.3% 15.3    6.6 7.0 1.6 0.1
14-6 24.7% 4.7    0.9 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.0
13-7 3.2% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 56.3% 56.3 37.7 14.7 3.4 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 4.0% 100.0% 43.6% 56.4% 2.2 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 13.1% 100.0% 38.0% 62.0% 3.2 0.7 3.0 4.1 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 21.0% 99.7% 33.0% 66.7% 4.4 0.2 1.0 3.7 6.3 5.4 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.5%
15-5 24.9% 99.4% 26.7% 72.7% 6.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 5.6 6.0 5.1 3.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.2 99.1%
14-6 18.9% 96.8% 23.7% 73.1% 7.4 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.2 4.2 4.3 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.6 95.8%
13-7 10.9% 87.5% 19.0% 68.4% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.0 0.2 1.4 84.5%
12-8 4.8% 70.4% 13.6% 56.8% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.4 65.8%
11-9 1.9% 48.7% 10.2% 38.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0 42.9%
10-10 0.5% 22.2% 4.4% 17.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 18.6%
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 95.0% 27.7% 67.3% 5.8 1.9 5.7 10.0 13.6 14.2 12.9 12.0 9.9 6.6 4.9 2.4 0.9 0.1 5.0 93.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 1.7 42.3 48.8 7.1 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 2.3 18.5 35.8 38.3 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 100.0% 2.5 9.3 40.7 37.2 12.8