Butler
Big East
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#81
Expected Predictive Rating+6.5#87
Pace61.2#336
Improvement+3.4#28

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#127
First Shot+4.4#63
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#297
Layup/Dunks+2.0#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#143
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#94
Freethrows-0.4#202
Improvement+0.1#158

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#52
First Shot+2.3#92
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#25
Layups/Dunks+0.1#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#200
Freethrows+2.1#52
Improvement+3.3#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 5.6% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 3.4% 0.6%
Average Seed 11.8 11.1 12.5
.500 or above 10.9% 25.4% 7.4%
.500 or above in Conference 16.6% 36.0% 12.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four0.7% 1.7% 0.4%
First Round2.1% 4.8% 1.4%
Second Round0.6% 1.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Away) - 19.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 9
Quad 22 - 34 - 12
Quad 33 - 18 - 13
Quad 42 - 19 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 267   Western Michigan W 66-62 91%     1 - 0 -4.2 -6.6 +2.6
  Dec 16, 2020 5   @ Villanova L 66-85 12%     1 - 1 0 - 1 +0.5 +3.3 -3.9
  Dec 19, 2020 23   Indiana L 60-68 26%     1 - 2 +5.6 -2.9 +8.1
  Dec 21, 2020 174   Southern Illinois L 73-76 82%     1 - 3 -5.7 +1.5 -7.3
  Dec 23, 2020 54   Providence W 70-64 43%     2 - 3 1 - 1 +14.7 +1.0 +13.8
  Dec 30, 2020 54   @ Providence L 55-71 30%     2 - 4 1 - 2 -3.7 -5.5 -0.5
  Jan 02, 2021 39   @ Seton Hall L 60-68 27%     2 - 5 1 - 3 +5.3 +0.7 +3.5
  Jan 06, 2021 108   Georgetown W 63-55 66%     3 - 5 2 - 3 +10.6 -3.5 +14.7
  Jan 09, 2021 26   Connecticut L 60-72 33%     3 - 6 2 - 4 -0.6 -3.1 +1.7
  Jan 12, 2021 79   @ St. John's L 57-69 43%     3 - 7 2 - 5 -3.2 -10.0 +6.4
  Jan 16, 2021 12   Creighton W 70-66 OT 25%     4 - 7 3 - 5 +18.1 +2.4 +15.7
  Jan 19, 2021 109   @ DePaul W 67-53 53%     5 - 7 4 - 5 +20.2 +1.9 +18.8
  Jan 26, 2021 26   @ Connecticut L 58-66 19%    
  Jan 29, 2021 45   Xavier L 64-66 46%    
  Feb 02, 2021 58   @ Marquette L 63-68 29%    
  Feb 06, 2021 109   DePaul W 67-63 70%    
  Feb 10, 2021 79   St. John's W 71-69 61%    
  Feb 13, 2021 108   @ Georgetown W 67-66 48%    
  Feb 17, 2021 58   Marquette L 65-66 50%    
  Feb 21, 2021 45   @ Xavier L 62-68 26%    
  Feb 28, 2021 5   Villanova L 61-70 23%    
  Mar 06, 2021 12   @ Creighton L 62-73 14%    
Projected Record 9 - 13 8 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.1 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.7 2.3 0.2 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.7 4.6 0.7 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 6.5 7.8 1.3 0.0 16.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 7.1 11.1 2.8 0.1 21.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 7.2 11.5 3.8 0.2 23.7 8th
9th 0.4 3.5 5.9 2.2 0.1 12.0 9th
10th 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 1.3 6.1 14.3 21.7 22.6 17.5 10.3 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 72.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 27.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 2.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 75.8% 10.2% 65.6% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 73.0%
12-8 1.4% 42.3% 6.0% 36.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 38.6%
11-9 4.6% 11.0% 3.2% 7.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.1 8.0%
10-10 10.3% 3.6% 2.9% 0.7% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.7%
9-11 17.5% 2.0% 2.0% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 17.1
8-12 22.6% 1.0% 1.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 22.3
7-13 21.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 21.6
6-14 14.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 14.3
5-15 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.1
4-16 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 1.3% 1.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 97.6 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%