Connecticut
Big East
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#25
Expected Predictive Rating+13.6#35
Pace64.1#306
Improvement-1.9#274

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#41
First Shot+1.7#132
After Offensive Rebound+4.7#7
Layup/Dunks+0.4#146
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#143
Freethrows+1.9#59
Improvement-1.6#273

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#29
First Shot+6.7#19
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#184
Layups/Dunks+1.6#129
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#8
Freethrows-1.3#262
Improvement-0.3#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.6% 3.1% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 10.1% 11.9% 2.5%
Top 6 Seed 22.0% 25.1% 9.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 71.0% 75.3% 52.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67.0% 71.7% 48.3%
Average Seed 7.8 7.6 9.0
.500 or above 94.4% 96.5% 85.6%
.500 or above in Conference 79.4% 84.7% 57.2%
Conference Champion 8.3% 9.7% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four7.4% 7.1% 9.0%
First Round67.6% 72.1% 48.6%
Second Round41.1% 45.0% 24.8%
Sweet Sixteen17.1% 19.1% 8.8%
Elite Eight7.4% 8.4% 3.3%
Final Four2.9% 3.3% 1.1%
Championship Game1.1% 1.3% 0.3%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Butler (Home) - 80.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 5
Quad 25 - 28 - 7
Quad 35 - 113 - 9
Quad 43 - 015 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 334   Central Connecticut St. W 102-75 99%     1 - 0 +11.7 +15.2 -5.2
  Nov 27, 2020 216   Hartford W 69-57 95%     2 - 0 +6.2 +1.7 +5.6
  Dec 03, 2020 24   USC W 61-58 48%     3 - 0 +16.5 +6.0 +11.0
  Dec 20, 2020 12   Creighton L 74-76 OT 46%     3 - 1 0 - 1 +12.2 -0.6 +13.0
  Dec 30, 2020 95   DePaul W 82-61 81%     4 - 1 1 - 1 +24.8 +12.1 +12.3
  Jan 05, 2021 64   @ Marquette W 65-54 58%     5 - 1 2 - 1 +21.9 +7.6 +16.2
  Jan 09, 2021 79   @ Butler W 72-60 66%     6 - 1 3 - 1 +20.9 +9.5 +12.1
  Jan 11, 2021 95   @ DePaul W 60-53 70%     7 - 1 4 - 1 +14.5 -3.0 +17.9
  Jan 18, 2021 78   St. John's L 70-74 77%     7 - 2 4 - 2 +1.3 -1.6 +2.9
  Jan 23, 2021 12   @ Creighton L 66-74 32%     7 - 3 4 - 3 +9.9 +5.2 +4.1
  Jan 26, 2021 79   Butler W 66-58 81%    
  Jan 28, 2021 5   Villanova L 66-69 43%    
  Jan 31, 2021 78   @ St. John's W 75-71 61%    
  Feb 06, 2021 40   Seton Hall W 71-68 67%    
  Feb 10, 2021 55   @ Providence W 68-67 48%    
  Feb 13, 2021 46   @ Xavier W 69-68 46%    
  Feb 16, 2021 55   Providence W 70-65 71%    
  Feb 20, 2021 5   @ Villanova L 64-71 23%    
  Feb 23, 2021 109   @ Georgetown W 73-66 69%    
  Feb 27, 2021 64   Marquette W 72-66 75%    
  Mar 03, 2021 40   @ Seton Hall L 69-70 45%    
  Mar 06, 2021 109   Georgetown W 74-64 85%    
Projected Record 14 - 8 11 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 3.4 2.5 0.6 8.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 5.5 8.2 3.9 0.6 0.0 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 9.7 11.6 4.5 0.3 28.9 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 8.1 7.0 1.5 0.1 18.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.2 5.0 0.5 11.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 3.1 0.5 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.3 0.5 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.5 6.1 11.0 16.4 18.5 18.8 14.5 7.6 3.1 0.6 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 98.3% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-5 79.4% 2.5    1.5 0.9 0.0
14-6 43.9% 3.4    1.1 1.9 0.4
13-7 11.8% 1.7    0.2 0.8 0.7 0.0
12-8 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 3.3 3.7 1.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.6% 100.0% 39.8% 60.2% 2.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.1% 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 2.8 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.6% 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 4.4 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.5% 99.3% 18.1% 81.3% 6.2 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.6 2.9 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.2%
12-8 18.8% 96.5% 12.8% 83.7% 8.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.7 3.5 4.6 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.7 96.0%
11-9 18.5% 84.0% 10.6% 73.4% 9.5 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.3 3.8 3.3 1.2 0.1 3.0 82.1%
10-10 16.4% 55.6% 7.9% 47.7% 10.9 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.2 2.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 7.3 51.8%
9-11 11.0% 19.3% 3.8% 15.5% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 8.8 16.1%
8-12 6.1% 5.2% 3.0% 2.1% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.8 2.2%
7-13 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 2.4
6-14 0.9% 5.2% 5.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 71.0% 12.0% 59.0% 7.8 0.5 2.1 3.0 4.5 5.7 6.1 9.1 9.5 8.8 7.5 7.2 5.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 29.0 67.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.6 40.4 59.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.9 27.3 54.5 18.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.3 8.7 65.2 8.7 17.4